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Coffee Can Investing__ The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth ( PDFDrive.com )

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Published by saikat bose, 2020-10-23 07:44:10

Coffee Can Investing__ The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth ( PDFDrive.com )

Coffee Can Investing__ The Low Risk Road to Stupendous Wealth ( PDFDrive.com )

Exhibit 106: Portfolio performance of CCP 2005

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 900 at the start to Rs 6659 at the end.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested. #NUM = Not quantifiable since earnings became negative towards the end of
the portfolio holding period.

Exhibit 107: Havells India was the star performer of CCP 2005 too

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 900 at the start to Rs 6659 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Complete portfolio (Period 7): 2006–16 (9.0 per cent
alpha to the Sensex; 20.4 per cent per annum absolute
returns)

All-cap portfolio stocks: Infosys, Cipla, Hero MotoCorp, Container
Corporation of India, Geometric, Havells India, Suprajit Engineering,
Munjal Showa, HDFC Ltd and HDFC Bank
Large-cap portfolio stocks: Infosys, Hero MotoCorp, Cipla, Container
Corporation of India, HDFC Ltd and HDFC Bank
In the seventh iteration our Coffee Can Portfolio again outperformed the
Sensex with an alpha of 9 per cent. The large-cap version also outperformed
the Sensex with an alpha of 5.7 per cent. On a risk-adjusted basis too, both

versions beat the Sensex with excess return of 0.23–0.24 times as against
0.06 times for the Sensex.

Exhibit 108: Summary of the seventh iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2006.
***Excess returns have been calculated as returns in excess of risk-free rate (assumed to
be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as
the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent
trough.
**Maximum drawdown from Jan’08 to Nov’09 for the all-cap CCP, Jan’08 to Nov’08 for
the large-cap CCP and Jan’08 to Mar’09 for the Sensex.

Mid-cap/small-cap stocks again outperformed in this period with Havells and
Suprajit Engineering’s stock prices rising by eleven and seven times
respectively.

Exhibit 109: Portfolio performance of CCP 2006

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1000 at the start to Rs 6376 at the end.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested.

Exhibit 110: Mid-caps continued their outperformance in CCP 2006

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1000 at the start to Rs 6376 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Complete portfolio (Period 8): 2007–17 (10.4 per cent
alpha to the Sensex; 19.7 per cent per annum absolute
returns)

All-cap portfolio stocks: Infosys, Wipro, Cipla, Tech Mahindra,
Hindalco, Hero MotoCorp, Container Corporation of India, Asian
Paints, Havells India, Geometric, Aftek, Munjal Showa, Suprajit
Engineering, HDFC Ltd and HDFC Bank
Large-cap portfolio stocks: Infosys, Wipro, Cipla, Tech Mahindra,
Hindalco, Hero MotoCorp, Container Corporation of India, Asian
Paints, HDFC Ltd and HDFC Bank

In the eighth iteration, our Coffee Can Portfolio continued its outperformance
versus the Sensex on both absolute as well as risk-adjusted basis. The large-
cap CCP matched the all-cap CCP on a risk-adjusted basis (0.21 times for
both portfolios).

Exhibit 111: Summary of the eighth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2007.
***Excess returns have been calculated as returns in excess of risk-free rate (assumed to
be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as
the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent
trough.
**Maximum drawdown from Jan’08 to Mar’09 for the all-cap CCP, Jan’08 to Mar’09 for
the large-cap CCP and Jan’08 to Mar’09 for the Sensex.

In this iteration, large-caps led the charge with Asian Paints being the star
performer with a jump in stock price of almost fifteen times. Extreme
movements were seen in mid-cap stocks again with stocks like Suprajit
Engineering rising almost twenty-five times whereas Aftek lost 97 per cent of
its value before suspension in May 2015.

Exhibit 112: Portfolio performance of CCP 2007

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1500 at the start to Rs 9030 at the end.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested. DNA = Data not available.

Exhibit 113: Suprajit Engineering and Asian Paints were the star
performers of CCP 2007

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1500 at the start to Rs 9030 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 9): 2008–Present (10 per
cent alpha to the Sensex; 21.8 per cent per annum
absolute returns)

All-cap portfolio stocks: Infosys, Wipro, Cipla, Asian Paints, Tech
Mahindra, Havells India, Automotive Axles, Geometric, HDFC Ltd,
HDFC Bank and Punjab National Bank
Large-cap portfolio stocks: Infosys, Wipro, Cipla, Asian Paints, Tech
Mahindra, HDFC Ltd, HDFC Bank and Punjab National Bank

The ninth iteration of the CCP that began life in July 2008 has so far
‘outperformed’ the Sensex with an alpha of 10 per cent. The large-cap
version also beat the Sensex with an alpha of 7.1 per cent. The large-cap
version, on account of lower drawdown, saw a risk-adjusted return of 0.25
times as compared to 0.26 times for the all-cap version and 0.01 times for the
Sensex.

Exhibit 114: Summary of the ninth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2008.
***Excess returns have been calculated as returns in excess of risk-free rate (assumed to
be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as
the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent
trough.
**Maximum drawdown from August’08 to Mar’09 for the all-cap CCP, August’08 to
Mar’09 for the large-cap CCP and August’08 to Mar’09 for the Sensex.

Both large-caps and mid-caps shared the outperformance during this iteration
with Asian Paints and HDFC Bank’s stock prices rising 31 per cent and 28
per cent respectively on an annualized basis whilst Havells India continued
its strong run with a 36 per cent annualized return.

Exhibit 115: Portfolio performance of CCP 2008

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1100 to Rs 6471.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested. DNA = Data not available.

Exhibit 116: Large-caps and mid-caps both outperformed in CCP 2008

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1100 at the start to Rs 6471 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 10): 2009–Present (11.2
per cent alpha to the Sensex; 22.7 per cent per annum
absolute returns)

All-cap portfolio stocks: Infosys, Wipro, Jindal Steel, Cipla, Asian
Paints, Oracle Financial Services, Tech Mahindra, Motherson Sumi,
HDFC Ltd, HDFC Bank and Punjab National Bank
Large-cap portfolio stocks: Infosys, Wipro, Jindal Steel, Cipla, Asian
Paints, Oracle Financial Services, HDFC Ltd, HDFC Bank and Punjab
National Bank
In the iteration beginning 2009, the all-cap and large-cap CCP again beat the
Sensex comprehensively with alphas of 11.2 per cent and 6 per cent

respectively. On a risk-adjusted basis too, they gave a stable performance
with excess returns of 0.49–0.55 times.

Exhibit 117: Summary of the tenth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2009.
***Excess returns have been calculated as returns in excess of risk-free rate (assumed to
be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as
the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent
trough.
**Maximum drawdown from August’15 to Feb’16 for the all-cap CCP, Jan’11 to Oct’11
large-cap CCP and Nov’10 to Dec’11 for the Sensex.

Motherson Sumi was the star performer in this iteration with its stock price
rising twenty-two times.

Exhibit 118: Portfolio performance of CCP 2009

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1100 at the start to Rs 5657 at the end.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested. #NUM = Not quantifiable as earnings became negative towards the end of the

portfolio holding period.

Exhibit 119: Motherson Sumi was the star performer of CCP 2009

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1100 at the start to Rs 5657 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 11): 2010–Present (10.7
per cent alpha to the Sensex; 20.8 per cent per annum
absolute returns)

All-cap portfolio stocks: Asian Paints, Amar Remedies, Motherson Sumi,
Tulip Telecom, HDFC Bank, Punjab National Bank and Dewan Housing
Finance
Large-cap portfolio stocks: Asian Paints, HDFC Bank and Punjab
National Bank
In this iteration, our Coffee Can Portfolio outperformed the Sensex with an
alpha of 10.7 per cent. The large-cap version beat the Sensex in this iteration
with an outperformance of 9.3 per cent.

Exhibit 120: Summary of the eleventh iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2010.
***Excess returns have been calculated as returns in excess of risk-free rate (assumed to
be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as
the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent
trough.
**Maximum drawdown from August’15 to Feb’16 for the all-cap CCP, May’13 to Sept’13
for the large-cap CCP and Nov’10 to Dec’11 for the Sensex.

The performance of the portfolio in this iteration was led by Motherson Sumi
and Asian Paints in this iteration. In spite of suspension of trading in two of
the constituent stocks through the period (Amar Remedies and Tulip
Telecom), the portfolio gave a stellar performance with a 20.8 per cent
CAGR.

Exhibit 121: Portfolio performance of CCP 2009

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 700 at the start to Rs 2630 at the end.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested. DNA = Data not available.

Exhibit 122: Motherson Sumi was the star performer of CCP 2010 as
well

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 700 at the start to Rs 2630 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 12): 2011–Present (3.9 per
cent alpha to the Sensex; 14.2 per cent per annum
absolute returns)

All-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, Asian Paints, Motherson Sumi, Ipca, Tulip
Telecom, Zylog Systems, Pratibha industries, Unity Infra, Amar
Remedies, Setco Automotive, HDFC Bank, Punjab National Bank,
Dewan Housing and City Union Bank
Large-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank and Punjab
National Bank
Amongst all the Coffee Can Portfolios, this iteration gave the weakest result
in terms of absolute performance. The large-cap version outperformed in this

iteration by beating both the all-cap version and the Sensex on absolute as
well as risk-adjusted basis.

Exhibit 123: Summary of the twelfth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2011.
***Excess returns have been calculated as returns in excess of risk-free rate (assumed to
be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as
the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent
trough.
**Maximum drawdown from August’15 to Feb’16 for the all-cap CCP, May’13 to Aug’13
for the large-cap CCP and Jan’15 to Feb’16 for the Sensex.

Extreme price performance among mid-cap/small-cap stocks was seen during
this iteration. Motherson Sumi’s stock price rose seven times during this
period whilst Zylog Systems lost 98 per cent of its value.

Exhibit 124: Portfolio performance of CCP 2011

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this

period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1400 to Rs 3112.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested. #NUM = Not quantifiable since earnings became negative towards the end of
the portfolio holding period. DNA =Data not available.

Exhibit 125: Extreme price performance was seen in mid/small caps in
CCP 2011

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1400 at the start to Rs 3112 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 13): 2012–Present (10.9
per cent alpha to the Sensex; 24.8 per cent per annum
absolute returns)

All-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, Asian Paints, Marico, Opto Circuits, Ipca
Labs, Berger paints, Page Industries, Balkrishna Industries, Grindwell
Norton, Zylog Systems, Tecpro Systems, Pratibha Industries, Astral Poly
Technik, Amar Remedies, Unity Infra, Setco Automotive, HDFC Bank,
Axis Bank, Punjab National Bank, Allahabad Bank, Dewan Housing and
City Union Bank
Large-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, Asian Paints, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank
and Punjab National Bank

The all-cap version again came to the fore, beating the Sensex by 4.6 per
cent.

Exhibit 126: Summary of the thirteenth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2012. Excess returns have been calculated as returns in
excess of risk-free rate (assumed to be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum
drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as the maximum drop in cumulative returns
from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent trough.
**Maximum drawdown from April’15 to Feb’16 for the all-cap CCP, May’13 to Sept’13
for the large-cap CCP and Jan’15 to Feb’16 for the Sensex.

With twenty-two companies making the cut in this iteration, this was the
biggest Coffee Can Portfolio in terms of number of constituent companies.
Astral Poly Technik was the star performer in this iteration with an almost
sixteen-time increase in the stock price. Zylog Systems and Tecpro Systems,
on the other hand, lost almost their entire value with declines of 99 per cent
and 98 per cent respectively.

Exhibit 127: Portfolio performance of CCP 2012



Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 2200 at the start to Rs 6650 at the end.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested. #NUM = Not quantifiable since earnings became negative towards the end of
the portfolio holding period. DNA = Data not available.

Exhibit 128: Astral Poly Technik outperformed other stocks in CCP
2012

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 2200 at the start to Rs 6650 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 14): 2013–Present (19.7
per cent alpha to the Sensex; 33.5 per cent per annum
absolute returns)

All-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, HCL Technologies, Asian Paints, Marico,
Berger Paints, Ipca, Page Industries, Balkrishna Industries, Solar
Industries, Astral Poly Technik, Pratibha Industries, Unity Infra, Sarla
Performance Fibers, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, Indian Bank, City Union
Bank and Dewan Housing
Large-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, HCL Tech, Asian Paints, Marico,
HDFC Bank, Axis Bank

This iteration has given the best results thus far with a whopping return of
33.5 per cent on a compounded annualized basis. The Sensex generated a
CAGR return of 13.7 per cent over the same period whereas the large-cap
portfolio generated a CAGR return of 24.4 per cent.

Exhibit 129: Summary of the fourteenth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2013. Excess returns have been calculated as returns in
excess of risk-free rate (assumed to be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum
drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as the maximum drop in cumulative returns
from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent trough.
**Maximum drawdown from August’15 to Feb’16 for the all-cap CCP, Sept’16 to Dec’16
for the large-cap CCP and Jan’15 to Feb’16 for the Sensex.

Mid-cap stocks led the performance of the profile in this iteration with some
of the stock prices rising almost four to eight times since the beginning of this
portfolio in June 2013. These stocks included names like Astral Poly
Technik, Solar Industries, Balkrishna Industries and Page Industries.
Exhibit 130: Portfolio performance of CCP 2013



Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1800 at the start to Rs 5709 at the end.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested. NUM = Not quantifiable since earnings became negative towards the end of the
portfolio holding period.

Exhibit 131: Mid-caps led the charge in CCP 2013 and generated most of
the portfolio’s value

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1800 to Rs 5709. Total Shareholder Return
(TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 15): 2014–Present (18.3
per cent alpha to the Sensex; 26.4 per cent absolute
returns till date)

All-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, Asian Paints, Godrej Consumer, Marico,
Ipca, Berger Paints, Page Industries, Balkrishna Industries, eClerx
Services, Mayur Uniquoters, V-Guard Industries, HCL Tech, HDFC
Bank, Axis Bank, City Union Bank and Gruh Finance
Large-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, Asian Paints, Godrej Consumer,
Marico, HCL Tech, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank

The returns shown in the tables below denote the performance of the
portfolio since 1 July 2014. This Coffee Can Portfolio outperformed the
Sensex by a handsome margin of 18.3 per cent over this period.

Exhibit 132: Summary of the fifteenth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2014. Excess returns have been calculated as returns in
excess of risk-free rate (assumed to be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum
drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as the maximum drop in cumulative returns
from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent trough.
**Maximum drawdown from Oct’16 to Dec’16 for the all-cap CCP, Sept’16 to Dec’16 for
the large-cap CCP and Jan’15 to Feb’16 for the Sensex.

The strong performance was led by V-Guard, which generated a CAGR
return of 61 per cent during this period.
Exhibit 133: Portfolio performance of CCP 2014



Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1600 to Rs 3233.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and
reinvested.

Exhibit 134: V-Guard Industries was the best performer of CCP 2014

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 1600 at the start to Rs 3233 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 16): 2015–Present (11.2
per cent alpha to the Sensex; 17.7 per cent absolute
returns to date)

All-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, HCL Tech, Lupin, Asian Paints, Cadila,
Britannia, Marico, GSK Consumer, Colgate, Amara Raja, Page
Industries, Berger Paints, eClerx Services, Astral, V-Guard, Cera
Sanitaryware, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, LIC HF, Gruh Finance
Large-cap portfolio stocks: ITC, HCL Tech, Lupin, Asian Paints, Cadila,
Britannia, Marico, GSK Consumer, Colgate, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank,
LIC HF

This Coffee Can portfolio outperformed the Sensex by a handsome margin of
11.2 per cent over this period.

Exhibit 135: Summary of the sixteenth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2015.
***Excess returns have been calculated as returns in excess of risk-free rate (assumed to
be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as
the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent
trough.
**Maximum drawdown from Sept’16 to Dec’16 for the all-cap CCP, Sept’16 to Dec’08 for
the large-cap CCP and Sept’16 to Nov’16 for the Sensex.

The all-cap portfolio was able to outperform the Sensex and the large-cap
portfolio on the back of strong performance of V-guard and Astral Poly,
which generated CAGR of 65 per cent and 33 per cent respectively.

Exhibit 136: Portfolio performance of CCP 2015

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 2000 at the start to Rs 2772 at the end.
*Total Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividend received and
reinvested.

Exhibit 137: V-Guard was the best performer of CCP 2015

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: Value at start denotes an equal allocation of Rs 100 in each stock at the start of the
period. Value at end is the value of each stock at the end of the period. Thus, for this
period, the value of the portfolio rose from Rs 2000 at the start to Rs 2772 at the end. Total
Shareholder Return (TSR) and Sensex TSR include dividends received and reinvested.

Incomplete portfolio (Period 17): 2016–Present (2.8 per
cent alpha to the Sensex; 18.1 per cent absolute returns
till date)

All-cap portfolio stocks: HCL Tech, Lupin, Asian Paints, Cadila,
Britannia, Amara Raja, Page Industries, eClerx Services, Astral, Cera
Sanitaryware, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, LIC HF, Gruh Finance, Relaxo
Footwear, Repco Home Fin, Dr Lal PathLabs
Large-cap portfolio stocks: HCL Tech, Lupin, Asian Paints, Cadila,
Britannia, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank, LIC HF

The CCP beginning 2016 has just completed a year, with both all-cap and
large-cap CCPs beating the Sensex with alpha of 2.8 per cent and 7.3 per cent
respectively.

Exhibit 138: Summary of the seventeenth iteration

Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital
Note: *Portfolio kicks off on 1 July 2016.
***Excess returns have been calculated as returns in excess of risk-free rate (assumed to
be 8 per cent) divided by absolute maximum drawdown. Maximum drawdown is defined as
the maximum drop in cumulative returns from the highest peak to the lowest subsequent
trough.
**Maximum drawdown from Sept’16 to Dec’16 for the all-cap CCP, Sept’16 to Dec’16 for
large-cap CCP and Sept’16 to Nov’16 for the Sensex.

HDFC Bank, Gruh Finance, LIC Housing Finance, Astral Poly and Cadila
Healthcare were the top performers in the period by giving one-year returns
of 42 per cent, 59 per cent, 50 per cent, 42 per cent and 61 per cent
respectively, while Lupin’s value dropped by 32 per cent.


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