(App. AIO-p. 11) Bear Markets: ., 0 \1\: i D b f\Vv, " 0 u i l , . 0 • - !\ 0 7 8 5 4 6 601------------+ 250 200 300 400 350 (4) 9/3/29-11/13/29 71.Days 91.84% I. Primary LegS (5) 11/3119- 8124/21 660 Days 87.20% 9. Primary Legs (6) 6117101· 1119/03 875 Days 85.67% 9. Primary Legs IE ; 90 f-lL--\+--"---t--t---+ 701---------i'+-i 80 f------'--t-- 110 1001-1-..-- \~! ~- 9 ;\\:\, .. .. :E .J .. \1 .. D I ., 0 r. r \ f\ 1\ ,I .. - ;;: ," \. 0 , : .. I ",:l I S I I~ :~ , .. I II .... "z , Oz ,I z.,0: 6 ;;;10 , ... ii:z mO tic.. .. WI ii! .. 13 100 14 120 150 110 160 90 6-7 Fig. AIOJ (7) 11/10/38 -4/28/42 1265. Days 70.48 % II. Prj mary Legs (8) 11/21116 - 12119117 394. Days 67.02% 5. Primary Legs
(App AIO-p. 12) Bear Markets: 80 110/---------1 70f----------1 (12 ) 11/19/09 - 9125111 675. Days 37.83% 5. Primary Legs (II) 11/15/61- 6/25/62 222.Days 40.03% I. Leg. 70 60 50 8 (10) 9/5/99 - 9/24/00 385. Days 46.54% 5. Primary Legs \9 I ,'.11\K I I 8 i\ 70 50 50 (9) 9/8...32 - 2/27/33 172. Days 60.85 % 5. Pri mary Legs ,l I 0 ,~ t , , I X I II' 0 & i'"I 6 0 8 6 7 5 16 100 540 500 90 ... ... N .... .... -" 400 -.... - .. N ~w... on Q \ 0 II I,o • , :\" Q 0 : k ,I V\ " " 0 , , " 0 " HY'i \ & " • 0 18 19 17 150 200 220 (13 ) 5/29/46 -6/14/49 1112 Days 31.91 % (14) 9/30/12 -7130114 668. Days 3183% ( 15) 4/9/56-10/22/57 56 I. Oays 24.39% 6. Primary Legs 5. Primary Legs 5. Primary Legs Fig. AIOK
6-9 (App. AIO-p. 13) The dates and prices are tabulated in the figures which follow. These data may be useful to readers with computers - please send me a copy of your findings! These data, incidentally, are not easy to obtain. While the Dow averages are a matter of record, the terminal dates for swings, under any specific set of definitions, require a careful review of the record. The prices used in the tabulations are closing prices from 1897 until the publication of the hourly average February I, 1932. From that point onward, the hourly figures are used for all terminal points.
(App. AIO-p. 14) DATA - Bull and Bear Markets. Primary SWings, Secondary Reactions T4/1 9/ 97 38.49 I 4/7/04 49.98 12/15/13 75.Z7 9/10/97 55.8Z g' 5/18/04 47.43 z/3/14 83.19 11/8/97 45.65 ::: IZ!5/04 73. Z3 4/Z5/14 76.97 tll 1/7/98 50.67 IZ/1Z/04 65.77 6/10/14 81. 84 E: 3/Z5/98 4Z.00 4/14/05 83.75 7/30/14 71. 4Z 4/1Z/98 46.3Z 5/ll/05 71. 37 IZ/14/14 56.76 (a) 4/Z1/98 43.Z7 8/Z3/05 8Z.82 12/24/14 53.17 8/Z6/98 60.97 9/7/05 78.60 1/23/15 58.5Z 10/19/98 51. 56 1/19/06 103.00 Z/z4/15 54.ZZ 4/Z5/99 77. Z8 3/5106 9Z.90 4/30/15 71. 78 5/31/99 67.51 4/3/06 98. 19 5/14/15 60.38 6/1Z/99 73.08 5/3/06 86.45 6/ZZ/15 71.90 6/ZZ/99 68.84 6/6/06 95.21 §~~;~~~15 67.88 9/5/99 77.61 7/13/06 85. 18 96.46 10/Z!99 70.95 10/9/06 96.75 11/9/15 91. 08 11/18/99 75.93 3/Z5/07 75.39 J2/Z7/15 99.Z1 vz!18/99 58.Z7 5/3/07 85.0Z 3/z/16 90.5Z (1l tll 1/Z/00 68.13 5/Z7/07 77.30 3/16/16 96.08 ... III 1/11/00 63.Z7 7/6/07 8Z.5Z 4/Z2/16 84.96 Z/5/00 68.36 8/ZI/07 69.Z5 6/1z/16 93.61 3/9/00 61. 11 9/6/07 73.89 7/13/16 86.4Z 4/6/00 66.15 11/15/07 53.00 10/5/16 104.15 6/Z3/00 53.68 lZ/6/07 61. 77 10/13/16 98.94 7/Z3/00 59.0Z lZ/17/07 56.85 II/ZI/16 110. 15 9/Z4/00 5Z.96 1/14/08 65.84 lZ/Zl/16 90.16 11/ZO/OO 69.07 Z/10/08 58.80 1/3/17 99. 18 lZ/8/00 63.98 tll 8/10/08 85.40 Z/2/17 87.01 lZ/Z7/00 71.04 § 9/Z2/08 77.07 Z/ZO/17 94.91 g' 1/19/01 64.77 11/13/08 88.38 IJ:I 3/1/17 91. 10 ::: Z/15/01 70.78 Z/23/09 79.91 3/Z0/17 98.Z0 Z/Z8/01 67.00 6/5/09 94.46 ... 5/9/17 89.08 5/01/01 75.93 6/Z1/09 89.66 6/9/17 99.08 5/~/01 67.38 10/Z/09 100.50 9/4/17 81. ZO 6/l7/01 78.Z6 10/Z3/09 95.70 9/Z5/17 86.0Z 7/15/01 69.46 11/19/09 100.53 11/8/17 68.58 7/Z9/01 n.94 Z/8/10 85.03 II/Z3/17 74. Z3 8/6/01 69.05 3/8/10 94.56 lZ/I9/17 65.95 8/Z6/01 73.83 5/3/10 84. n Z/19/18 8Z.08 lZ/1Z/01 61. 61 5/ZI/10 89.66 4/11/18 75.58 4/Z4/0Z 68.44 6/6/10 8Z.05 5/15/18 84.04 6/Z4/0Z 63.67 6/ll/10 86.Z8 6/1/18 77.93 9/19/0Z 67.77 7/Z6/10 73.6Z tll 10/18/18 89.07 lZ/15/0Z 59.57 -1-'0/'8/10 86.02 E: II/Z5/18 79.87 z/16/03 67.70 lZ/6/10 79.68 lZ/10/l8 84.50 4/13/03 60.79 ztcti: 86.0Z Z/8/19 79.15 4/Z1/03 64.56 3/4/11 81.80 6/5/19 107.55 8/8/03 47.38 6/19/11 87.06 6/16/19 99.56 8/17/03 53.88 9/Z5/ll n.94 7/14/19 lIZ. Z3 10/15/03 4Z.Z5 10/14/11 78.66 8/Z0/19 98.46 10/Z7/03 45.41 - 10/Z7/ll 74.82 11/3/19 1I9.6Z 11/9/03 42.15 t 9/ 3O/1 Z 94.15 IZ/ZZ/19 103.55 lZ!Z9/03 49.35 3/Z0/13 78.Z5 tll 1/3/Z0 109.88 tll 1/6/04 47.07 tll 4/4/13 83.19 (1l Z/II/ZO 90.66 E: I/Z7/04 6/11/13 n.1I III 50.50 ... Z/ZI/ZO 95.63 I 3/11/04 46.41 ... 9/13/13 83.43 Z/Z5/Z0 89.98 Fig. AIOL 6-
(App. AIO-p. 15) DATA - Bull and Bear Markets, Primary Swings, Secondary Reactions. 4/8/20 105.65 I 3/25/29 297.50 I 8/25/33 105.07 5/19/20 87.36 bl 5/4/29 327.08 g' 9/6/33 98.24 7/8/20 94. 51 §: 5/27/29 293.42 ::: 9/18/33 106.66 8/10/20 83.20 18/3/29 355.62 10/3/33 92.47 ~9/17/20 89.95 8/9/29 337.99 10/10/33 99.88 11/19/1.0 73.12 9/3/29 381. 17 10/21/33 83.64 12/4/20 77.63 B=;r 11/13/29 198.69 12/11/33 103.36 1l/21/20 66.75 12/7/29 263.46 12/20/33 94.56 2/ 16/21 77.14 ::: 12/20/29 230.89 2/5/34 111. 16 3111/21 72.25 4/17/30 294.07 2/10/34 103.61 5/5/21 80.03 5/3/30 258.31 2/19/34 109.21 6/20/21 64.90 5/29/30 275.07 5/14/34 90.02 8/2/21 69.95 6/24/30 211. 84 5/18/34 96.15 8/24/21 63.90 7/28/30 240.81 6/2/34 91. 09 5/29/22 96.41 8/12/30 217.24 6/19/34 100. 79 6/12/22 90.73 9/10/30 245. 09 7/26/34 85.51 9/11/22 102.05 11/10/30 171. 60 8/25/34 95.71 9/30/22 96. 30 11/21/30 190.30 bl 9/17/34 86. 10 10/14/22 103.43 12/16/30 157.51 1/7/35 106.17 11/27/22 92.03 12/20/30 169.42 2/7/35 100. 11 3/20/23 105.38 bl 12/29/30 160. 16 2/18/35 107. 17 5/21/23 92.77 Z1/8/31 173.04 3/18/35 96.44 5/29/23 97.66 ... 1/19/31 161. 45 9/18/35 134. 59 7/31/23 86.91 2/24/31 194.36 10/3/35 127.38 8/29/23 93.70 4/29/31 143.61 11/20/35 149.05 10/27/23 85.76 5/8/31 154.41 12/19/35 138.94 2/6/24 101.31 6/2/31 121. 70 3/6/36 159.13 5/20/24 88.33 6/27/31 156.93 3/13/36 150.42 8/20/24 105.57 8/6/77 133.77 4/6/36 162.45 10/14/24 99. 18 8/15/31 145.80 4/30/36 142.03 3/6/25 125.68 110/5/31 86.48 8/10/36 169. 50 3/30/25 115.00 10/9/31 116.79 8/21/36 160.80 11/6/25 159.39 1/5/32 71.24 3/6/37 194.47 11/24/25 148.18 11/15/32 85.88 6/17/37 164.07 2/13/26 '''.08 1'/10/32 71.48 8/14/37 190.02 bl 3/3/26 144.44 3/8/32 89.31 10/19/37 118.37 3/10/26 153. B 6/2/32 44.09 10/29/37 140.47 3/30/26 135.20 6/16/32 51. 04 11/23/37 113. 52 4/24/26 144.83 7/8/32 41. 03 til 12/8/37 130.66 5/19/26 137.16 "1"0'" 80.68 til IlJ 12/14/37 122.46 8/14/26 166.64 9/15/32 65.82 ... 12/21/37 129.98 10/19/26 145.66 9/22/32 75.64 ""'/37 118.23 12/18/26 161.86 10/10/32 58.47 1/12/38 134.76 1/25/27 152.73 10/20/32 65.92 2/4/38 117. 50 10/3/27 199.78 11/3/32 57.56 2/23/38 132.41 10/22/27 179.78 11/12/32 68.12 3/31/38 98.75 1/3/28 203.35 12/3/32 55.48 4/18/38 121. 27 2/20/28 191. 33 12/15/32 62.55 5/2/38 109.85 6/2/28 220.96 12/23/32 56.40 5/10/38 119.64 6/18/28 201.96 1/11/33 64.86 ..... 5/31/38 107. 16 11/28/28 295.62 2/27/33 50.16 1""38 145.70 12/8/28 257.33 3/16/33 63.48 9/14/38 131.17 2/5/29 322.06 4/4/33 55.36 9/21/38 139.47 2/16/29 295.85 7/18/33 109.43 9/28/38 128.07 3/1/29 321. 18 7/22/33 88.42 11/10/38 158.41 6-11 Fig. A10M
(App. AID-p. 16) DATA - Bull and Bear Markets. Primary Swings, Secondary Reactions. I"""" 145.67 I 10/20/47 185.66 3/9/60 597.60 1/5/39 154.94 Zlll/48 164.77 4/18/60 632.68 1/26/39 136.42 6/14/48 193.81 5/2/60 599.61 3/10/39 152.40 9/28/48 175.98 6/9/60 659.69 4/11/39 120.82 10/23/48 190.30 til 7/25/60 600.61 6/10/39 140.33 11/30/48 171. 20 § 8/24/60 641. 56 6/30/39 129. 36 1/7/49 182.00 9/29/60 568.12 7/25/39 145.43 6/14/49 161. 10 10/17/60 597.52 9/1/39 129.20 6/12/50 228.44 10/25/60 566.05 9/13/39 156.00 7/13/50 197.11 5/22/61 710.93 9/18/39 147.78 11 /25/50 235.62 6/19/61 676.46 10/26/39 155.60 12/4/50 222.33 9/7/61 730.62 11/30/39 145.33 2/13/51 255.96 9/25/61 691. 86 1/4/40 153.02 3/15/51 243.39 Bear 11/15/61 737.50 1/15/40 143.41 5/4/51 263.64 6/25/62 526.69 4/9/40 151. 60 7/2/51 241.70 8/23/62 619.97 6/10/40 Ill. 29 9/17/51 276.39 tll 10/24/62 552.92 9/5/40 134.11 11/26/51 255.82 g, 6/5/63 730.73 9/13/40 1/23/52 275.45 ...... 127.54 7/22/63 686.55 11/8/40 138.47 5/1/52 255.78 10/29/63 762.09 2/19/41 117.71 tll 8/11/52 280.62 11/22/63 711. 49 4/4/41 124.80 § 10/23/52 262.62 5/1/41 115.02 1/5/53 293.79 7/22/41 130.71 6/10/53 261. 36 12/23/41 106.22 8/13/53 277.57 1/6/42 114.48 9/15/53 255.11 4/28/42 92.92 1/3/55 409.52 4/6/43 136.97 1/18/55 386.41 ( Footnote: 4/13/43 130.23 3/4/55 420.07 (a) This is a new 7/14/43 145.59 3/14/55 391. 36 series; to be com- 8/2/43 134.00 7/27/55 469.74 parable, multiply tll 9/20/43 142. 18 8/9/55 447.25 preceding figures § 12/1/43 128.89 9/23/55 487.45 by 0.7339 ) 7/10/44 150.57 10/11/55 435.87 9/7/44 142.93 1/3/56 489.45 3/6/45 161. 82 1/23/56 460.34 3/27/45 152. 13 4/9/56 522. 18 6/26/45 169. 15 5/28/56 467.58 7/27/45 160.32 8/9/56 521. 39 2/4/46 207.24 t:l:I 10/1/56 468.38 2/26/46 184.80 CD 11/7/56 499.72 P> 5/29/46 212.50 ... 11/29/56 463.06 7/24/46 194.90 1/4/57 500.65 8/14/46 204.84 2/12/57 454.82 9/19/46 165.17 7/15/57 521. 27 9/26/46 174.96 10/22/57 419.79 10/30/46 161. 10 12/4/57 449.93 11/4/46 175.34 12/17/57 425.65 t:l:I 11/22/46 162.96 2/4/58 458.65 CD P> 2/10/47 184.54 tll 2/25/58 435.07 ... 4/15/47 166.16 § 11/17/58 568.35 5/15/47 174.58 11/25/58 540.52 5/19/47 161. 84 8/3/59 679.52 7/25/47 187.05 9/22/59 615.76 9/9/47 174.62 1/4/60 685.83
6-13 (App. All-p. 1) Appendix All: BIBLIOGRAPHY: Alexander, S. S. Price Movements in Speculative MarketsTrends or Random Walks; Industrial Mgt. Review, May 1961. Ayres, L. P. Turning Points in Business Cycles, Macmillan 1940 Allen, L. B.: Method for Stock Profits Without Forecasting. Doubleday 1962 Barnes, L.: Your Investments, Am Research 1964 Barron's - National Business and Financial Weekly Baruch, B.: My Own Story, Holt 1957 Bean, L. H. : How to Predict the Stock Market, Luce 1962. Bernhard, A.: Evaluation of Common Stocks, Simon and Schuster, 1959 Black, H.: Watchdogs of Wall Street, Morrow 1962 Bolton, A. H.: Elliott Wave Principle, Bolton Tremblay 1960 Bolton, A. H.: Introduction to Bank Credit Analysis, Bolton Tremblay 1958 Bratt, E. C.: Business Cycles and Forecasting, Irwin, 1948 Brooks, J.: Seven Fat Years, Harper, 1954 Burns and Mitchell: Measuring Business Cycles, NBER 1946 Campbell, D.G.: Let's Take Stock, Bobbs Merrill 1959 Carpenter, H. G. A Successful Investor's Letters to His Son, Simon and Schuster, 1934. Carpenter, H. G.: This is Investment Management, Scarborough Press 1946 Cobleigh, 1. U.: How to Get Rich Buying Stocks McKay 1959 Cootner, P. H.: Random Character of Stock Market Prices, MIT Press 1964 Cragg, A.: Understanding the Stock Market, Garden City 1929 Crane, B.: Sophisticated Investor, Simon and Schuster, 1959 Croxton and Cowden: Applied General Statistics, Prentice Hall, 1939. Dahl, C.: Consistent Profits in the Stock Market, Tri State Offset, 1951 Darvas, N.: How I made $2,000,000 - Am Research 1960 Dewey, E.R. and Dakin, E.F.: The Science of Prediction, Henry Holt 1947. Drew, G.: New Methods for Profit in the Stock Market, Metcalf Press 1941 Edwards and Magee, Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Magee 1948 Elliott, R. N.: Nature's Law - 1946 Elliott, R.N.: Articles in Financial World, March-August 1939
(App. All-p. 2) Elliott, R. N.: The Wave Principle. 1938 Engel, L.: How to Buy Stocks. Bantam. 1953 Epstein, R. C.: Making Money in Today's Market, Economica 1959 Fisher, P. A.: Paths to Wealth Through Common Stocks. Prentice Hall 1960 Fisher, P. A.: Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits. Harper, 1958 Fritz, S. and Shumate, A. M. : Making the Dow Theory Work, Russell 1960 Granville, J. E. : Strategy of Daily Stock Market Timing for Maximum Profit, Prentice Hall 1960 Gutman, W. K.: You Only Have to Get Rich Once, Dutton, 1961 Hamilton, W. P. : Stock Market Barometer. Russell, 1922/60 Hardy, C. O. : Odd Lot Trading, Brookings Institution. Investors Intelligence: Encyclopedia of Stock Market Techniques, Inv, Intelligence 1963 Jacwin and Costa, How to Accumulate Wealth Through Stock Speculation, Kent 1958 Jiler, W. L.: How Charts Can Help You in the Stock Market, Commodity Research, 1962 Kelly, F. C.: Why You Win or Lose, Kelly, 1930 Krach, E. T.: Bond Values and Yields, Cosmopolitan 1945 Leffler, G. L.: The Stock Market, Ronald, 1957 Loeb, G. M.: Battle for Investment Survi val, Simon and Schuster 1957 Magee, John:General Semantics of Wall Street, Magee 1958 Mayer, M.: Wall Street Men and Money, Harper 1961 Merrill, Arthur C.: Investing in the Scientific Revolution, Doubleday 1962 Mills F. C.: Price Quantity Interactions in Business Cycles, NBER 1946 Moroney, M. J. :Facts from Figures, Penguin 1951 Neill, H.: Tape Reading and Market Tactics, Forbes 1931 Nelson, S. A.: ABC of Stock Speculation, Nelson 1900 Nelson, S. A.: ABC of Wall Street, Nelson 1900. O'Connor, Wm: Stocks. Wheat and Pharaohs, Wener, 1961 Preston, C.: World of Wall S1. Journal, Simon and Schuster 1959. Rhea. R.: Dow Theory, Rhea 1932
6-14 (App. All-p. 3) Rhea, R :Dow' s Theory Applied to Business and Banking, Simon and Schuster 1938 Rhea, R.: Story of the Averages, Rhea Russell, R.: Dow Theory Today, Russell 1958 Sergeant, W. P.: Stock Market Behavior, Exposition 1957 Schabacker, R. W.: Stock Market Theory and Practice, Forbes 1930 Schaefer, E. G.: How I Helped More than 10000 Investors to Profit in Stocks, Prentice Hall 1960 Schwed, F.: Where are the CustomersI Yachts? Simon and Schuster 1940 Shulsky, S. :Stock Buying Guide, Arco 1959 Schultz, H. D.: Bear Markets, Prentice Hall 1964 Stabler, C.N.: How to Read the Financial News, Harper 1932 Stansbury, C. B.: Dow Theory Explained, Russell, 1938 Stearns, L: How to Live With Your Investments, Simon and Schuster 1955 Sterling, D.: Wall Street, Doubleday 1955 Wise, T. A.: The Insiders. Doubleday 1962 Wright. W.: Forecasting for Profit, Wiley 1947 Wyckoff, R. D.: Method of Trading and Investing, Wyckoff 1931 Wyckoff, R. D.: Wall Street Ventures and Adventures. Harper 1930
(App. A12-p. 1) Appendix A12= HOW TO MAKE THE CHI SQUARED TEST: How significant are the findings in this book? One of the simplest checks of significance is the "Chi Squared Test". You will find a discussion of this test in all standard statistical text books. We are including below an example of this test which can be applied to many of the findings in this book. The formula is: Where: -c': o/' - Chi Squared ! = "Total of" 0= -Ob s e r ve d Result E= Expected Result For exarnpler on the day before Christmas, In the last 67 years, the market rose 49 times and declined 18 times. Is this significant? In the 67 years, the market rose on 53.16% of all the days in the period, and declined on 46.84% of the days. If we multiply these percentages by 67, the expectation for the day before: Christmas is UP: 35.6 DOWN: 31. 4 Substituting these values in the formula: (49-35.6)2 + (18-31. 4)2 35.6 31.4 = 10.7
6-12 (App A12-p. 2) Evaluation: Many of the findings in this book are of the type stated in the example. The answer is a percentage up plus a percentage down, with a total of l~ For this simple type of problem (the statisticians call it "one degree of freedom"), the results can be evaluated as follows: If Chi Squared is 3.84, the probability of getting this Chi Squared or higher is 50/0 or one in twenty. This is rated "Probably Significant" by some statisticians. If Chi Squared is 6.64. the probability of getting this value or higher is 1. 00/0 This is rated "Significant". If Chi Squared is 10.83, the probability of getting this value or higher is 0.10/0 or one in a thousand. This is considered "Highly Significant". In the example above, the Chi Squared is 10.7 • This difference from expectation is close to the 0.10/0 level, and the result could be rated "Highly Significant".
(App. A13-p. 1) Appendix A13: THE ELAPSED TIME CALCULATOR: - - A tool for students -- ELAPSED TIIiI CA LCULATOIl - DAY DAY OF THE YEAR OF MONTH MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEP. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN. FEB. I 1 32 62 S3 123 154 IB5 215 246 276 307 33B I 2 2 33 63 94 124 155 IB6 216 247 277 306 339 i 3 3 34 64 95 125 156 IB7 217 248 27B 309 340 ...__•. I 4 4 35 65 96 126 !!I7 18B 218 249 279 310 ~I I 5 5 36 66 97 127 158 IB9 219 250 280 311 342 6 6 37 67 98 128 159 190 220 251 2BI 312 343 7 7 38 68 99 129 160 191 221 2&2 2B2 313 344 8 8 39 69 100 130 161 192 222 253 283 314 345 9 9 40 70 101 131 162 193 223 254 2B4 315 346 10 10 41 71 102 132 163 194 224 255 265 316 347 II II 42 72 103 133 164 195 225 256 286 317 348 12 12 43 73 104 134 165 196 226 257 287 318 349 13 13 44 74 I 105 135 166 197 227 25B 28B 319 350 14 14 45 75 106 136 167 I 19B 226 259 289 320 351 15 I!I 46 76 168 199 229 260 290 321 352 -+ . -1---- 16 16 47 77 I 108 1'38 169 200 230 261 291 322 353 17 17 48 I 78 I 109 139 170 201 231 262 29l: 323 354 16 18 49 79 110 140 17\ 202 232 263 293 324 356 ---r'--j--r---;l ---- f---- --_. 19 19 50 80 II I \41 172 203 233 264 294 325 356 20 20 51 B I I 112 142 173 I 204 234 265 295 326 357 21 21 52 B 2 II 3 I 143 174 205 235 266 296 327 35B . - f------- f----- --l---- . .._---- 22 22 53 B3 114 144 175 I 206 236 267 297 328 359 23 23 54 84 115 145 176 207 237 26 B 29B 329 360 24 24 55 85 116 146 177 208 238 269 299 330 361 25 25 56 86 117 147 178 209 239 270 300 331 362 26 26 57 B7 liB 148 179 210 240 271 301 332 363 27 27 58 B6 119 149 IBO 21 I 241 272 302 333 364 28 28 59 89 120 150 IB 1 212 242 273 303 334 365 29 29 60 90 121 15 I 182 213 243 274 304 335 366 30 30 61 91 122 !!I 2 IB3 214 244 275 305 336 --f------ 31 31 92 153 184 245 306 337 To find numb" of days bel..,een two do tes: (I) Put down 365. for each ree.ae passed over. (For Q leap yeor Feb. 29 use 366.) (2) Add "Ooy of the year" for the second date. (3) Sub'roci "Day of Ihe yeo," for the first dOle. (4) Remainder 1'1 Ihe number of days between the two dotes. COPYRIGHT 1962 Arthur A Merrill [Komple: April 24.1962 10 March 12, 1964 II) t- 355 (For feb. 28, 19631 + 366 (For Feb 29, 1964) 121 + 12 ( For Mareh 12,1964) 743 (Totol) (3) - 55 ( For April 24 1 (962) (4) 588 «Elapsed time In days)
(App. A14-p. 1) Appendix A14: PRICE EARNINGS CALC ULATOR: -- A tool for students -- EARNINGS PRICE/EARNI NGS PRICE/EARNINGS CALCULATOR 100 90 80 70 60 , , , 50 40 30 25 20 EXAMPLE: PRICE' $ GO. ' EARNINGS· $4.00 " ... ANSWER. ON MI DOLE SCALE: PRICE/ EARNI NGS • 15. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 , , ... 30 ...-, -... 20 ... ... ~5' ., , ,, 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 ... , 0.12 0.15 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.50 2. 3. ' ... 4. 10 15 10 FOR PRICE SCALE OF 100-1000, MULTIPLY 80TH PRICE SCALE AND EARNINGS SCALE 8Y TEN. FOR PRICE SCALE OF 1-10, DIVIDE BOTH PRICE SCALE AND EAAI'tINGS SCALE BY TEN. COPYRIGHT 1959 ARTHUR A. MERRILL 5. 6. 7. a 9. 10. 15.
(App. AI5-p. 1) Appendix A15: 300 YEAR CALENDAR: - - a tool for students -- - YEAR TYPE LETTERGo down column to first three digits of year ourth digit I e r. --...--then across to column of f and obta i n Year Type Lett ~O I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 175 A B A B C K F G A 176 I 0 E F N B C 0 L G 177 A B J E F G H C o E '78 M A B C K F G A , 0 179 E F N 8 C D L G A 8 180 C 0 E F N B C 0 L G 18 I A B J E F G H C 0 E 182 M A B C K F G A I 0 183 E,F N B C 0 L G A B 184 J E F G H C 0 E M A L85 B C K F G A I 0 E F 186 N B C 0 L G A B J E 187 F G H C 0 E M A B C 188 K F G A I 0 E F N B . 189 C 0 -~ A B J E F G 190 A B C 0 L G A 8 J E ,191 F G H C 0 E M A B c 192 K F G A 1 0 E F N B 193 C 0 L G A B J E F G 194 H C o E M A B C K F 195 G A I 0 E F N B C 0 196 L G A e J E F G H C 197 0 E M A B C K F G A 198 , 0 E F N B C 0 L G 199 A B J E F G H C 0 E 200 M A B C K F G A I 0 201 E F N B C 0 L G A B 202 J E F G H C 0 E M A 203 B C K F G A I 0 E F 204 N B C 0 L G A B J E 205 F G H C 0 E M A B C FIG.AI5A
(App. AlS-p. 2) CALEN DAR .... 1753 - 2059 COPYRIGHT 19~2 ARTHUR A. MERRILL II Tu \II Th F 5 I 2 3 45678910 II 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 192021 222324 2~ 2627 28 29 3031 EXAMPLE: JULY 4, 1776 YEAR TYPE; H DAY OF WEEK: THURSDAY TO USE: FIRST: OBTAIN YEAR TYPE LETTER FROM OPPOSITE PAGE, / '--THEN FIND MONTH, GO STRAIGHT ACROSS TO YEAR TYPE LETTER. THEN DOWN TO CALEN DAR. JAN. 31d. E L G N D K A H C J B I F M 31.d. JAN.' FE 8.28-29 B I 0 K A H E L G N F M C J 28·29FEB. MAR.31.d 8 H 0 J A N E K G M F L C I 31.d. MAR. APR. 30.d F L A N E K 8 H 0 J C I G M 30d. APR. MAY 31.d 0 J F L C I G M B H A N E K 31.d. MAY JUNE 30d. A N C I G M 0 J F L E K B H 30.d. JUNE JULY 31.d. F L A N E K B H 0 J C I G M 31.d. JULY AUG. 31.d. C I E K B H F L A N G M 0 J 31.d. AUG.. SEP. 3O.d G M B H F L C I E K 0 J A N 30.d SE P. OCT. 31.d E K G M D J A N C I 8 H F L 31.d. OCT. NOV. 3011 B H 0 J A N E K G M F L C I 30.d. NOV. DEC. 31.d. G M B H F L C I E K 0 J A N 31.d. DEC. r .~ / / (~ 5 M Tu W Th F 5 5 II Tu W Th F 5 5 II Tu III Th F 5 I 234~67 I 2 3 4 6 1 2 3 4 !i 8 9 10 II 12 13 14 7 8 9 10 II 1213 6 7 8 9 10 II 12 I~ 16 17 18 19 2021 14 I~ 16 17 18 19 2C 13 14 I~ 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 es 2627 28 2.1 22 23 24 25 26 27 20 21 22 23 24 as 21 129 3031 28:n 3031 27 28293031 5 M Tu \1/ Th F S 5 M Tu \1/ Th F 5 5 M Tu III Th F 5 I 2 I 2 3 4 1 3 4 !i 6 7 8 9 !i 6 7 8 9 10 II 234 5 678 10 II 12 13 14 15 18 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 II 12 13 14 15 17 18 19 2021 22 2~ 19 202122 23 242!i 16 17 18 19202122 24 25 2627 2829 3CI 26 27 28 29 30 31 23 24 25 26 2728 29 31 3031 -, 6-8 FIG. AI5B
6-6 About the author: Arthur A. Merrill, BS, MBA, devoted 33 years to the General Electric Company, in engineering. statistics, planning, forecasting, and management. Since 1962 he has been President of Merrill Analysis, Inc , , and has edited a statistical letter "Technical Trends", to help investors in their decisions. He is the author of many articles and books. He is a Past International President of SPEBSQSA, a member of the American Statistical Association, the Society for the Investigation of Recurring Events and the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. His home is in Chappaqua, New York.
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