DefInsights - Sugosha Newsletter Aug 2018

INDEPENDENCE DAY SPECIAL

DefInsightsVol.2Issue3—Aug2018
A SUGOSHA MEDIA PRESENTATION

S-400 Triumf
Will We ; Wont
We ?

DEFENCE
MANUFACTURING

CORRIDORS

CONTENTS

COVER STORY

S-400 Triumf: Will we, wont Logistician Dilemma: Ma-
we? chine Learning to the Rescue

P6 P 16

India’s Defence Manufactur- DPP PRIMER : PART 5
ing Corridors PROCUREMENT PLANNING
PROCESS
P 11
P 20
2
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
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P 22

INDUSTRY BUZZ

P 10

From the MDs Desk

July has been an interesting month for the Defence sector. There have
been important developments both from the Indian Ministry of De-
fence, the industry and the United States of America.

Mrs. Shanti Kuber Let me begin with the US. The inaugural 'two-plus-two dialogue'
between India and the US will be held on September 6 in New Del-
hi, the State Department announced after a see-saw battle, a Yes

and a No. Last month, the US had postponed the much-awaited dialogue due to "unavoidable
reasons". Now, the Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary James Mattis would
travel to India for the dialogue, with their Indian counterparts, "Minister of External Affairs
Sushma Swaraj and Minister of Defence Nirmala Sitharaman", to discuss strengthening strategic,
security and defence cooperation. The dialogue was announced last year during Prime Minister
Narendra Modi's meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House. Meanwhile, a senior
State Department official told reporters that the co-operation among quad countries the US,
Japan, India and Australia would come up in the next week's US-Australia Ministerial Consultations
in Palo Alto.

The announcement of the 'two-plus-two dialogue' comes amidst prospects of India being imposed
with unintended sanctions that are targeted at Iran and Russia.

In the past, the US recognised the central role Iranian crude oil plays in India's energy security. At
the same time, New Delhi gradually curtailed its oil imports to comply with US secondary
sanctions and secure the requisite waivers from Washington.

India wants the US to recognise that its purchase of the S-400 air defence system from Russia is a
legacy decision that predates the enactment of CAATSA.

In an extra ordinary effort, US lawmakers worked to get a waiver for India from the punitive
Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions ACT (CAATSA), under which sanctions kick off
on countries that purchase significant military equipment from Russia.

Much of India's defence equipment historically comes from Russia and as a result, our relationship
with Moscow is historic. The reality is that US-India defence trade is rapidly expanding, and it
would be a tragedy for that burgeoning relationship to be compromised by the CAATSA decision.

In the meantime, The United States on the eve of August 2018, elevated India’s status as a trading
partner to equal that it has accorded largely to its NATO allies, mostly for the purposes of
speeding up the sale of high-tech defence and non-defence products that are otherwise subjected
to strict controls and licensing. The move, which will reduce the number of licences needed for US
exports to India, means India can get easy access to the latest defence technologies. It could also
mean a leg-up for the foundational COMCASA agreement which the US is keen to get India to sign,
analysts say.

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The Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreement is one of the three agreements that the
US has with its closest military allies, and will allow the installation of high -security US communication
equipment on defence equipment being sold to India, thereby, the US argument goes, facilitating
interoperability. The concerns of both sides are being addressed and a major announcement is likely
during the 2+2.

Interestingly, the important STA-1 status for India came at a time when the country has finalised its
decision to go in for a missile defence system from the US to protect parts of the capital New Delhi.
The new status would provide India “greater supply chain efficiency, both for defence, and for other
high-tech products”, the lack of which affected nearly $9.7 billion worth of goods India could have
exported from the US over the last seven years, as reported in the American press.

The US has given STA-1 to only 36 countries most of whom are NATO or key non-NATO allies.

The Indian Ministry of Defence, has taken several initiatives such as promulgation of the new
Production policy, new offsets addendum in the pipeline, extensive work on the newly announced
Defence corridors, expected in the first week, finalisation of the process to roll out the Strategic
Partnership model, pilot of which would be the Utility Helicopters for the Indian Navy, the approval
for a security shield for New Delhi at an estimate of USD 1 bn, 6 x AH 64s for the Indian Army, India
withdrawing from the FGFA, Going ahead with the procurement of the S-400 system from Russia,
Indian Navy to soon get their own Missile tracking ship, Minister of Defence also took a strong step in
setting up a panel to probe the high cost of equipment from the Public Sector.

The trade war with China would throw up opportunities for India, we need to get our act quickly to be
able to take advantage of the emerging situation.

Future buys are more enchanting, the Future ready Combat Vehicles(1770 numbers); 200 x fighters
( Adanis, Tata and others would vie this), 114 x Dhanush , the ATAGS, Field Artillery modernisation
plans taking shape, US-2 from Shinmaywa making its way for a early procurement, the Predators and
Avengers from General Atomics, 234 helicopters both the NUH and NMRH versions, 6 x stealth
submarines ( believe the Ministry is examining the Option clause for the Scorpenes), the small Arms
procurements, 12 x Mine Sweepers and few more. All these are carefully being worked out for a
possible action, come 2019.

We also hear that the 117 x Jaguars will get a life extension with new engines, airframes and spares
with few of the machines gifted by Paris, Oman and UK.

Visit by South Korean president indicated a look into the KAI trainers, needs to be seen if indeed it
was discussed. The fight for Fighters has just begun with all the six contenders of the MMRCA V.1
once again responding to the RFI.

Activity is at its peak, with policies, processes, procurements making the Indian Ministry of Defence a
happening place.

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S-400 Triumf: Will we, wont we?

By Sohil Patel India had signed a Rs 39,000 crore deal for the acquisition of five new-
generation S-400 Triumf air defence missile systems from Russia way
back in December 2015. The long-standing deal was signed at the India-
Russia annual summit on the side-lines of the 2016 BRICS summit in
Goa. The deal was the biggest yet in the India-Russia relations since
2001 when India agreed to buy 140 Sukhoi Su-30MK fighter jets. Two
and a half years hence, the procurement is in a stalemate with the
United States objecting to the deal between Russia and India. Before
we look at the regulations and geopolitical constraints on the S400 deal,
let us understand what is the S400 air defence system and does India
require it in the first place.

What is an anti-aircraft weapon?

Anti-aircraft warfare or counter-air defence is defined by NATO as "all measures designed to nullify or reduce
the effectiveness of hostile air action”. They include ground-and air-based weapon systems, associated
sensor systems, command and control arrangements and passive measures. It may be used to protect naval,
ground, and air forces in any location. However, for most countries the main effort has tended to be
'homeland defence'. NATO refers to airborne air defence as counter-air and naval air defence as anti-aircraft
warfare. Missile defence is an extension of air defence as are initiatives to adapt air defence to the task of
intercepting any projectile in flight.

The essence of air defence is to detect hostile aircraft and destroy them. The critical issue is to hit a target
moving in three-dimensional space. Hence an attack must not only match these three coordinates, but must
do so at the time the target is at that position. This means that projectiles either have to be guided to hit the
target, or aimed at the predicted position of the target at the time the projectile reaches it, taking into
account speed and direction of both the target and the projectile. The S-400 Triumf is one such anti-aircraft
weapon system.

Although the firearms used by
the infantry, particularly
machine guns, can be used to
engage low altitude air targets,
on occasion with notable
success, their effectiveness is
generally limited and the muzzle
flashes reveal infantry positions.
Speed and altitude of modern jet
aircraft limit target
opportunities, and critical
systems may be armoured in
aircraft designed for the ground
attack role.

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The development of surface-to-air missiles (SAM) began in Germany during the late World War II with
missiles such as the Wasserfall, though no working system was deployed before the war's end, and
represented new attempts to increase effectiveness of the anti-aircraft systems faced with growing threat
from bombers. Land-based SAMs can be deployed from fixed installations or mobile launchers, either
wheeled or tracked. The tracked vehicles are usually armoured vehicles specifically designed to carry SAMs.

The radar systems use electromagnetic waves to identify the range, altitude, direction, or speed of aircraft
and weather formations to provide tactical and operational warning and direction, primarily during defensive
operations. In their functional roles they provide target search, threat, guidance, reconnaissance, navigation,
instrumentation, and weather reporting support to combat operations.

With the advent of stealth aircraft technology, there is also anti-stealth technology. Multiple transmitter
radars such as those from bistatic radars and low-frequency radars are said to have the capabilities to detect
stealth aircraft. Advanced forms of thermographic cameras such as those that incorporate QWIPs would be
able to optically see a Stealth aircraft regardless of the aircraft's RCS. The newest SAMs have a claimed ability
to be able to detect and engage stealth targets, with the most notable being the S-400, which is claimed to be
able to detect a target with a 0.05-metre squared RCS from 90 km away.

India’s Air Defence Systems

India has been successful in strategically important missile tests including Brahmos- ER (Extended Range) and
one interceptor of its ambitious Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) in the recent past. Brahmos extended version
destroyed target at the distance of 400+ Km on supersonic speed and the interceptor of the BMD system
destroyed incoming missile at the range of 25Km, the interceptor was endo-atmosphere interceptor which is
the part of India’s 3 layer ballistic missile defence system.

India also have SPYDER in its arsenal, Spyder Ballistic Missile Defence System is now mounted on a TATA

truck. Israel’s SPYDER anti-cruise missile and an anti-aircraft system uses a low-level quick reaction missile to

destroy targets up to 15 km away and at an altitude 9 km. SPYDER has one mobile command unit and six

mobile firing units attached to it. Its radar can intercept enemy missiles 25 km away and can fire the first

missile in just 5 seconds.

Here is a list of India Armed Forces’ anti-aircraft weapons

◊ Akash ◊ Bofors 40 mm L/60 gun(anti-aircraft) ◊ ZSU-23-4 self- propelled AA gun

◊ 9K22 Tunguska ◊ S-300 ◊ Barak 1

◊ Barak 8 ◊ SPYDER

The S-400 Triumf

The S-400 Triumf (NATO reporting name: SA-21 Growler), previously known as the S-300PMU-3, is an anti-
aircraft weapon system developed in the 1990s by Russia's Almaz Central Design Bureau as an upgrade of the
S-300 family. It has been in service with the Russian Armed Forces since 2007.

The standard S-400 battery consists of four transporter erector launchers (TELs), four launch tubes per TEL, in
addition to target acquisition and engagement (fire control) radar systems and a command post. (With an
additional fire control radar system, a battery can consist of up to 12 TELs.) Two batteries make up a S-400
battalion (also known as a S-400 division), whereas a S-400 regiment consists of two battalions.

August 2018 | DefInsights | 7

Missiles
The S-400 uses four missiles to fill its performance envelope: the very-long-range 40N6 (400 km), the long-
range 48N6 (250 km), the medium-range 9M96E2 (120 km) and the short-range 9M96E (40 km).

The S-400 air defence missile system uses four new missile types in addition to the missiles of the S-300PMU
system. The first missile inducted for the system was the 48N6DM (48N6E3). It is an improved variant of the
48N6M with powerful propulsion system. The missile can destroy airborne targets within the range of
250km.
The 40N6 missile of the S-400 has a claimed range of 400km and uses active radar homing to intercept air
targets at great distances. It can be launched against AWACS, J-STARS, EA-6B support jammers and other
high-value targets.
The S-400 Triumph also launches 9M96E and 9M96E2 medium range ground-to-air missiles. Designed for
direct impact, the missiles can strike fast moving targets such as fighter aircraft with a high hit probability.
The maximum range of the 9M96 missile is 120km.
Command and control
The 55K6E command and control system of the S-400 Triumph is based on the Ural-532301 mobile
command post vehicle. The command post is equipped with LCD consoles to process the air space
surveillance data of the individual batteries. It controls and monitors long-range surveillance radar, tracks
airborne threats, prioritises the threats, and coordinates other batteries. The system is also capable of
exchanging data with other defence systems such as SA-12, SA-23, and S-300.
Radars
The fire control and target tracking radar of the S-
400 is the 92N6E (NATO Codename: Gravestone).
The radar is based on the MZKT-7930 8×8 vehicle.
The 96L6 Cheese Board 3D surveillance and tracking
radar is optionally carried by the same vehicle when
the S-400 battery is deployed autonomously.
The 91N6E Big Bird acquisition and battle
management radar of the S-400 is based on the 8×8
trailer. The radar can detect and track aircraft,
rotorcraft, cruise missiles, guided missiles.
Launch vehicle
The SP85TE2 launchers are based on the BAZ-64022 6×6 tractor truck or MAZ-79100 series Transporter-
Erector-Launcher (TEL) vehicle. The TEL vehicle can carry up to four launch tubes holding a mix of missiles.

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Neighbourhood Watch

China has developed several air defence systems including the HQ-9 new generation medium- to long-
range, active radar homing surface-to-air missile. Similar to the Russian S-300 and American Patriot
systems, the HQ-9 uses a HT-233 PESA radar system. The naval variant, HHQ-9, appears to be identical to
the land-based variant. HHQ-9 is equipped in the PLAN Type 052C Lanzhou class destroyer in VLS launch
tubes.

In April 2018, Russia has delivered the first regimental set of S-400 Triumf advanced interceptor-based Air
Defence Systems to China under a 2014 government-to-government contract. Consequently, China could
receive anywhere between 60 to over 200 TELs including missiles and associated equipment.

Pakistan inducted a Chinese-made Low-to-Medium altitude Air Defence System (LOMADS) LY 80 in March
2017. LOMADS LY-80 is capable of intercepting and destroying aerial targets flying at low and medium
altitude.

Why India should procure the S-400

If India inducts the most potent, highly-mobile and automated S-400 systems, which have different kinds of
supersonic and hypersonic missiles as well as long-range radars to track 100 to 300 targets simultaneously,
they can be used to protect cities during war or vital installations like nuclear power plants. It would help in
reducing first strike threats and provide an aerial defence umbrella.
India can also look to integrate the S-400 systems with the IAF’s air defence network called IACCS
( Integrated Air Command and Control system), which combines a wide array of sensors and weapons, to
further enhance their lethality and plug gaps in the country’s airspace.

Procurement Status: Towards independence in decision making

The inter-governmental agreement for the five S-400 systems was inked during the Modi-Putin
summit at Goa in October 2016. Even as India and Russia were putting the finishing touches on the
complex S-400 contract ahead of the next Modi-Putin summit in October this year, Washington
jumped into the fray to warn New Delhi against going ahead with the deal.

It was reported that the Defence Acquisitions Council (DAC), chaired by Defence Minister Nirmala
Sitharaman, on 28th June 2018, approved the “minor deviations” in the mega S-400 deal that had
emerged during the recently-concluded commercial negotiations with Russia. The S-400 procurement
case will now go to the finance ministry for clearance and the PM-led Cabinet Committee on Security
for the final nod. The country’s top political leadership will have to take a call on when the actual
contract can be inked.

India and Russia have worked on a roadmap to get around the financial sanctions flowing out of the
recent US law called CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act) that seeks to
deter countries from buying Russian weapons. The 2017 law CAATSA, requires that countries that
have significant defence cooperation with Russia must be sanctioned by America. USA has also
contemplated offering its own Terminal High Altitude Area Defence system (THAAD), which is highly
effective when used against long-range ballistic missiles.

However India, along with Indonesia and Vietnam, is likely to get a waiver from US sanctions against
Russia, according to reports from 25th July 2018. India is set to be granted leeway by a US
Congressional committee. Nonetheless, whatever may be the result from the US government, India is
firm on its decision to go ahead with the procurement of S-400 systems from Russia.

August 2018 | DefInsights | 9

Industry Buzz

 DAC approves implementation guidelines for the Strategic Partnership model: The defence ministry on
30 July 2018, cleared “platform-specific” guidelines for the purchase of 111 naval utility helicopters The
US, European and Russian rivals are expected to compete for the Rs 21,738-crore NUH programme by
stitching up alliances with Indian firms under the government’s ‘strategic partnership’ model.

 Missile Shield for New Delhi: It is believed from sources that the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC)
chaired by the Raksha Mantri Nirmala Sitharaman has approved the Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) to
acquire the NASAMS-II (National Surface to Air Missile Systems) worth around $1 Billion USD, from the
US. This will be in line with New Delhi’s plans to protect key and strategic targets from missiles. Also to
note is that the DRDO is also in the final stages of developing a two-tier Ballistic Missile Defence (BDM)
shield.

 Ease of Doing Business by OFB: In order to improve vendor interaction and improve ease of doing
business with the industry, OFB has decided to have all General Managers and Senior General Mangers
heading Ordnance Factories to meet vendors on last Wednesday of every month and resolve issues.

 Indian Navy To Procure Underwater Drones : The Indian Navy has reinitiated the process of procuring
eight “High Endurance” Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (HEAUVs). The indicative timelines for the
procurement 2021 and the tender will be released later this year. Though it is likely to be a global
tender, it will be subject to the OEM collaborating with an Indian partner, and will include transfer of
technology (ToT), and locally produce under the Make-in-India initiative.

 New Avionics For Jaguar Jets: The Indian Air Force (IAF) has 118 Jaguar Fighter Jets, which it started
acquiring since 1979, following a license production by HAL for 150. IAF has now launched a new
obsolesce drive to revamp the Jaguar planes with new engines, airframes and other spares, and
currently IAF and HAL are finalising a direct purchase of the F125IN engines from Honeywell, for five
Jaguar squadrons, estimated at $1.f Billion U$D. It is also reported that new Avionics, AESA Radars, and
Weapon Systems are under the new upgrade plan. Also to note is the confirmation from France to
provide 31 used Jaguar planes free of cost to India – as part of the Rafale jet deal - from which spares
can be cannibalised for obsolescence management. The IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal B S Dhanoa said the
force wanted to fly the Jaguar planes for at least another decade.

 Boeing's Apache and Chinook helicopters for India complete inaugural flights: Boeing has carried out
the first flights of the Apache and Chinook military helicopters and delivery to the Indian Air Force will
commence next year. India is procuring 22 AH-64E Apache attack choppers and 15 CH-47F(I) Chinook
heavy-lift helicopters from Boeing.

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Defence Industrial Corridors

By Narashimha Chari It is imperative for a country of India’s current stature and geopolitical aspi-
rations, as a regional and global superpower, to have a strong defence man-
ufacturing base in the country. A strong indigenous defence ecosystem with
established Defence Corridors, along with the right policies, can not only
mitigate the pattern of profligacies in our defence procurement procedures,
but it can also be the harbinger to usher in cutting-edge technologies and
expertise in the country, for sustained growth and development. The estab-
lishment of the Defence Corridors has the potential to be the inflection
point in India’s goal of being self-reliant in this sector and also go beyond, to
address its export ambitions.

Though there are other recognised defence manufacturing hubs in the country, as in Bengaluru, Hyderabad
and Maharashtra – or the upcoming one in Gurugram as announced by the government of Haryana – we
need to understand the choice of Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh on a broader canvas of factors influencing
this decision, and more importantly the features and the key drivers and enablers to establish these Defence
Corridors in the first place.

Features of a Defence Industrial Corridor
Typically a Defence Industrial Corridor is referred to a stretch of the route which actively supports the
production of defence equipment by companies of various sizes, including Defence Public Sectors (DPSUs),
large Private companies and MSMEs, so as to promote indigenous development and production.

These defence industrial corridors run through hundreds of kilometers, and require the support from the
government to provide the required infrastructure and formulate attractive policies and procedures.

India’s Defence Corridors
Defence and Aerospace have always been an important strategic sectors for India, and one of the key
sectors of focus by the GoI/MoD in its Make-in-India initiative. In addition to providing improved
connectivity and self-reliance to country’s defence forces, the success of these corridors can also have a
positive impact on India’s Defence Diplomacy, and its brand as an arms exporting nation. Hence, a lot of
thought and deliberation has gone in, while identifying these defence corridors

The intent to establish two defence corridors was announced by the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in his
budget speech for FY 2018-2019. One of the defence corridors is being built between Chennai and
Bengaluru. This southern corridor will connect the Kattupalli port to Chennai, Coimbatore, Salem,
Tiruchirappalli, Hosur and Bangalore and is envisaged generate an employment for 2.5 lakh people. The
other defence corridor will be established in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh along Aligarh, Agra, Jhansi,
Chitrakoot, Kanpur, and Lucknow

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Key Drivers & Enablers For India’s Defence Industrial Corridors
• India has the second largest active military force with strength of 1.39 Million personnel and the world’s

largest volunteer army base

• The military budget of India is about 1.49% of the total GDP for FY 2018-19, translating to ₹2, 95,000
crores which include ₹86,488 crores for Defence capital, and is only likely to grow proportional to the
rapidly growing economy

• India imports close to 60% to 70% of its defence equipment, and has the distinction of being the world’s
largest importer of military hardware, contributing to 13% of Global Arms import and having spent more
than $100 Billion U$D, between 2008 to 2017

• Indian arms forces have over 60% of the legacy Soviet-era military equipment, which need be either
refurbished or replaced

• India has a well-established and a recognised government-owned defence manufacturing and R&D base
across the country, including DRDOs, DPSUs, Shipyards and OFBs, building decades of experience and
expertise

• The country has a proven industry base, with notable private sector conglomerates and a vibrant MSME
sector, an abundance of skilled work force, and can boast of many success stories of joint development
and production of military platforms like BRAHMOS and Su 30 MKI

• Favourable policies, reforms and initiatives to promote FDI and comprehensively integrate, Research
institutions & Academia, Incubators & Accelerators, Start-ups and MSME companies with larger
integrators, policies to boost Make-in-India, plans to embed Skill Development, promotion of Innovation
programs such as iDEX are considered in the blueprint, as part of the implementation process

A: TAMIL NADU DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL
CORRIDOR:
Tamil Nadu has been one of the top three states in
the country, on almost all the industrial
development indexes. The cities identified for the
Tamil Nadu Defence Production Quadrilateral have
been making a significant contribution across the
manufacturing spectrum, and they are largely
associated with the expertise of each region.

Chennai – the state’s capital – is known as the
manufacturing hub for many Automobile
OEMs. Trichy is recognised for fabrication and
machining, with some MSME companies even
having niche expertise in laser cutting
Tungsten.

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Coimbatore is known as the textile hub and is also recognised for its auto ancillary industry with a strong base in
machining, forging and foundry. Salem is rich in mineral deposits and is a hub for steel manufacturing, Hosur with
its proximity to Bangalore is a renowned automobile and manufacturing hub.

Salient Features Of The Tamil Nadu Defence Corridor
 On the infrastructure front the state boast of 4 large ports - Madras, Ennore, Kattupakkam, and Tuticorin -

handling around 19.3% of India’s capacity; 4 Airports handling 23 Million passengers; 6700 KM of Rail net-
work, and 200,000 KM of Road network, and more like 8 lane Chennai-Salem Expressway are in the pipeline

 The state has received $27 Billion U$D as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), between 2000 to 2017

 Tamil Nadu has 36 operational Special Economic Zones (SEZs) – the highest in the country – and a vibrant
MSME sector, and a network of about 113 industrial parks, and the highest number of factories in the country
at 43,372 giving it the edge of being one of the most urbanised states in the country

 The state of TN has a good blend of Public Sector Units – including DPSU – many Indian and Global Manufac-
turers and IT companies, and its proximity to the IT/ITES and Electronic design and manufacturing base hub,
Bangalore, is an added advantage. Tamil Nadu produces 36% of the total number of cars manufactured in the
country, and has some of the best of the global brands set up facilities in its manufacturing hubs, and also pro-
duces other vehicles from two-wheelers to large trucks, buses and tractors, for domestic and export market

 With over 500 Engineering colleges, and an equal number of Polytechnics, the state can offer abundance of
skilled manpower, and a vibrant youth population of more than 66% are in the working age group

 The state has 2 Nuclear plants – at Kalpakkam and Kudankulam – besides many Thermal Solar and Wind power
plants, to provide cost-effective power for the industries

B: UTTAR PRADESH DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL
CORRIDOR:

Home to 9 OFBs and 3 HAL units besides other
DPSUs like BEL, Uttar Pradesh, which is India’s most
populous state, has strategically been identified as
another location for the Defence production Corri-
dor. The corridor runs through the impoverished
region of Bundelkhand - with the Government of
Uttar Pradesh identifying close to 3000 Hectares of
land – connecting the districts of Aligarh, Agra,
Jhansi, Chitrakut, Kanpur, to the state capital, Luck-
now.

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Salient Features Of The Uttar Pradesh Defence Corridor
 The Uttar Pradesh Defence Industrial Corridor is located on the Golden Quadrilateral, with easy access

to the Yamuna and Agra Lucknow Expressway and is alongside the catchment areas of the AKIC
(Amritsar-Kolkata Industrial Corridor), and in proximity to the intersection of the EDFC (Eastern
Dedicated Fright Corridor), and the WDFC (Western Dedicated Fright Corridor). The Bundelkhand
Expressway linking Chitrakut to Agra Lucknow Expressway; the Poorvanchal Expressway linking Lucknow
to Ghazipur; and the NW-1 connecting Allahabad to Haldia port are also proposed, and together
promises to provide the best in class road connectivity

 Multi-modal logistic hubs at Kanpur, Dadri, Boraki, and Varanasi; largest railway network in the country
spanning over 8,949 km; and major national & international airports connecting the rest of India, Middle
East & South East Asian countries, including the upcoming international airport at Jewar in the NCR
region; will provide a comprehensive connectivity advantage for the UP Defence Production Corridor

 With 53 Universities, 4345 Colleges, 168 Polytechnics with several research institutes and Centres of
Excellence and other vocational institutes, the state will have no dearth of skilled manpower for the
estimated 2.5 Lakh jobs which will be created along the Defence corridor

 As the 4th largest state in the country in terms of land mass, Uttar Pradesh can afford to offer large
parcels of land at attractive rates for companies to set up their facilities and also their supply chain of
ancillary companies

 The state has a strong Electronic design and manufacturing base, with agglomeration of top global
companies, which can complement the defence production

Parting Shot
In spite of the government’s push and initiatives, the big ticket FDI still seem elusive in this sector. However,
notwithstanding the many challenges faced, the Indian industry can reflect and ride on the success in the
other sectors such as Automobiles, IT/ITES, Telecom and off late and to an extent, Electronic manufacturing.
Even limiting to the strategic sectors, the accomplishments by the Indian Space and Nuclear verticals -
integrating the Indian industry - has been notably commendable, within and outside the country.

The state governments of Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh have taken the support of consultancy firms and
experts to put together a blueprint to its granular details. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is now on the
verge of realising the new version of the Defence Production Policy (DPP-2018) with a roadmap to create a
robust defence production industry, providing the needed resources for the indigenous development of
critical technologies and state-of-art manufacturing facilities, across platforms. Having set ambitious targets
by 2025, to achieve a turnover of ₹170,000 Crores INR in defence production, and export of military
equipment worth ₹35,000 Crores INR, the Government of India GoI/MoD needs to provide the industry with
all the support it can, and ensure seamless implementation of the policies and initiatives. It will also have to
closely monitor the progress, and address the challenges and impediments with minimum delays, which can
make the difference in putting the defence corridors on the right trajectory or allowing it to drift in to the
predictable saga of vapidity.

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August 2018 | DefInsights | 15

Logistician Dilemma: Machine Learning to the Rescue

Lt Col (Dr) Rajesh Kapur Col Rajesh is an alumnus of NDA, Kharakvasla, and IMA, Dehra Dun; and was
(Retd) commissioned into the Corps of EME in December 1981. He is an electronics
engineer, with a post-graduation in computer science from IIT Kharagpur. His
doctoral study was in the domain of science, technology and society (STS) stud-
ies at the University of Hyderabad. While in the Army he attended the Technical
Staff Course (TSC); which coupled with his experience in the Corps of EME gave
him an insight into the logistic issues vis-a-vis equipment management in the
Indian Army. He is currently an Associate Professor at TIMSCDR, Mumbai. His
current interests lie in the development of real world use cases in the domain of
data science.

“Almost any facet of decision making that is based on macro-level data in the descriptive, predic-

tive and prescriptive stages of planning can be better facilitated by the use of machine learning.”

There is a perennial austerity drive in Indian defense spending - even though the current aggressive
security environment in the subcontinent mandates a constant state of readiness with enhanced
combat potential. Logistic costs are a necessary overhead in achieving and sustaining combat readiness.
Defense expenditure towards logistic compulsions however, has historically been under close scrutiny.
The current environment is no different. There is a renewed effort to optimize the spending on logistics
to improve the teeth-to-tail ratio in the Indian armed forces.

In the Indian context, the main share of logistic expenditure is the significant budget allocation to
support the maintenance of equipment and personnel. The capability for this support has been built
around a complex mixture of base, intermediate, and field level units staffed by both uniformed and
civilian personnel; augmented by third party supply chains from civilian agencies. The costs of this logistic
support are continually rising; due mainly to the variation in the source of foreign acquisition technologies;
and the ever-increasing technological complexity of arms and armament. In such a scenario relevant and
accurate data analytics can prove an effective decision support tool for optimal decisions vis-à-vis
logistic issues. The current flavor of data analytics has its basis in the scientific domains of artificial
intelligence and statistics – leading to the enunciation of sophisticated algorithms in data science and
machine learning.

The relatively nascent domain of data science offers us tools in which the vast amount of data
generated through information and communication technologies (ICT) can be used to for better
informed inferences. Machine learning, a subset of the data science domain, fosters the ability to map
our inferences to a continuous improvement in the quality of our decisions; by learning through
statistical techniques and algorithms. Almost any facet of decision making that is based on macro-level
data in the descriptive, predictive and prescriptive stages of planning can be better facilitated by the use
of machine learning. Planning and decision making for the Indian armed forces is an ideal application

16 | DefInsights | August 2018

learning paradigm. Some real time insights that can be obtained are
• Full logistics liability understood and planned for full scale / partial operations.
• Real-time knowledge of formation readiness through the operational state of assets
• Asset allocation plan to sectors / formations
• Executive action plan on how to meet those availability targets at optimal costs

The real pay-off in the use of machine learning however are the insights gained during a period when full
scale operations are not imminent; and yet full scale readiness has to be maintained. An illustrative
instance in the realm of equipment management is that of predictive maintenance. Field units and
formations constantly face the challenge of ensuring maximum availability of critical equipment and
weapon systems, viz tanks, guns, radars, communication equipment and armaments - while
simultaneously minimizing the cost of maintenance and repairs. Machine learning makes it possible to
gain cost saving insights from the volumes of data that is collected in the form of paper reports and
returns in the three services. Pertinent to highlight is that though a lot of data is collected along the chain
of command, it is used mainly for descriptive purposes. Processing based on machine learning models
enable the predictive and prescriptive insights to be accrued. For example , for the purpose of predictive
maintenance, historical and current equipment usage data is used to develop automated decision
support tools in understanding what is needed to minimize mechanical downtime, reduce the frequency
of scheduled maintenance, optimize field technician dispatch, and maintain high levels of equipment
availability. Operational units are thus assured an enhanced level of operational fitness. An analysis of
historical, current and predicted spare part / assembly usage can ensure better provision and supply.

August 2018 | DefInsights | 17

Armed with greater visibility into equipment health, preventive maintenance cycles can be extended.
This results in savings of effort, oils and lubricants. Early identification of potential breakdown enables
sourcing and maintenance agencies to deploy scarce and costly resources more cost effectively; thereby
enhancing equipment uptime.

The Analytics Perspective

• Models based on data analytics require end-to-end planning through a workflow, as well as skilled

human resources; apart from a large volume of relevant data. Actionable insights have to be
extracted from this data. An engineering workflow fosters the development of a machine learning
project into structured phases with well-defined exit criteria while simultaneously optimizing
resource utilization and maximizing benefits. Initially the workflow may be independent of any
specific issue in the realm of defense logistics. For departments that have already attained a certain
maturity in process implementation some steps may be glossed over. A suggested workflow would
be: 1) gaining understanding of the logistic area of operations; 2) definition of the requirement (or
the problem); 3) data collation, to include storage and analysis; 4) modeling the solution; 5)
evaluation of the model through training and validation data; 6) deployment of the solution; and 7)
review of the solution to include monitoring and feedback. Human resources in data science are
usually integrated in team with the desired skill set. Defense data analysts work in an environment
where impact is gauged more by achievement of targeted results rather than commercial gains.
These results might be qualitative in nature. They primarily involve supply chain issues involving
deliver the right items in the right quantities to the right place

18 | DefInsights | August 2018

the right time—and at the right cost. In the short run, this implies the timely provision of spare parts, food,
fuel, and other critical supplies in support of Indian Army field formations and troops. All components
have to work in sync to enhance asset visibility in a manner that provides accurate, reliable, and timely
data to track assets throughout their life cycles.

The basic constituent skills of a data science team are statistical analysis, computing, and awareness of the
nuances of the logistics domain under study. Data aggregation is critical to the solution. The procedures for
collection of data through the command chains are well established. Distributed structures may be
deployed; backed by secure wireless technologies for field units where wired access is sub-optimal.
Specific data have to be collected on an ad hoc basis from concerned units. In the enunciation of the model
the following should be considered prior to finalizing a working methodology:
• What are our areas of concern?
• What can we do to improve the status quo? How?
• What do we want to estimate or predict?
• What in our activities do we want to add / remove / modify?
• Are there any patterns emerging that need looking into?
• What are the success criteria for the activity of interest?
• How do we map business success criteria to data science metrics that can be processed stochastically?

Conclusion
There is no doubt that budgetary restrictions
will always prove a formidable constraint for
the military logistician. He must continually
evolve his strategy to take the benefit from
technical innovations in the civilian sector to
ensure the required material support to sustain
operations in both peace and war. Artificial
intelligence, data science, and machine learning
are the dominant technologies currently. The
logistician must exploit these to effectively deal
with his challenges.

August 2018 | DefInsights | 19

Defence Procurement Procedure Primer

By Sohil Patel Part 5 – Procurement Planning Process

In part 4 of the primer we started with chapter 1 of the DPP 2016. The
first chapter talks about the operational context, acquisition categories
and acquisition plans. We shall explore the acquisition planning process
in this edition. The planning process would be under the overall
guidance of the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), its decisions, as
approved by the Raksha Mantri, will flow down for implementation to
the Defence Procurement Board (DPB).
A multitude of capital equipment/services are required by the Indian
Army, Navy and Airforce, as well as Coast Guard and Homeland Security.
In order to understand and prioritize the requirements of all
stakeholders, the requirements are captured in terms of long-term,
medium-term and short-term perspectives as follows:

(a) 15 years Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP) – approved by DAC

15 years LTIPP is formulated based on the Defence Planning Guidelines, Headquarters Integrated Defence
Staff (HQ IDS), in consultation with the Service Headquarters (SHQs). LTIPP provides an outlook on the
capital equipment and technologies the Armed Forces are looking for in the future. These requirements are
also shared with the industry in the form of Technology Perspective and Capability Roadmap (TPCR),
covering details of the acquisition plans for a period of 15 years.

(b) 5 years Services Capital Acquisition Plan (SCAP) – approved by DAC

The Five Year Defence Plans for the Services are also formulated by HQ IDS, which would include
requirements for the next five years. The SCAP should indicate the list of equipment to be acquired, keeping
in view operational exigencies and the likely availability of funds.

(c) Annual Acquisition Plan (AAP) – approved by DPB

AAP are the immediate requirements of the three services and each service creates the draft AAPs as
illustrated in the chart below. A two year roll on plan is created for capital acquisitions and “Make” projects.

20 | DefInsights | August 2018

AAP Timelines
• SHQ will circulate the draft AAPs to respective AM/TM/FM in the Acquisition Wing and thereafter

forwarded to HQ IDS by 31st of December each year.
• HQ IDS will allot a unique identification number to each case and would obtain approval of final

AAP from DPB by 15th April for each financial year.

Part A would be the working document for Acquisition Wing for issue of RFP and subsequent
monitoring of the progress of each case. Inclusion of fresh schemes to Part A from Part B of AAP, after
accord of AoN, would be a regular process.

The funds required for capital acquisitions across services would be worked out by HQ IDS based on
the schemes likely to be included in the AAPs. Due consideration would be given to committed
liabilities of previous years and anticipated cash outflow to be incurred for fresh schemes in the
ensuing financial year.

The DPB also has the power to amend the AAP to include schemes if necessary based on
• National security requirements
• Operational urgencies
• Budgetary provisions OR
• Any other exigency based on recommendations made by SHQ/HQ IDS/Department of Defence/

Defence (Finance)

August 2018 | DefInsights | 21

Business Opportunities : August 2018

SL TENDER TITLE SUBMISSION ORGANISA- TENDER ID ENQUIRY TYPE

NO CLOSING DATE TION/AGENCY

1 Procurement of Unmanned Aeri- 6th August 2018 BEL H1/01/23072018 RFP - Open
al System (Mini)

2 RFI for Procurement of Ava- 5th September Indian Army RFI

lanche Survival Equipment/ Ava- 2018 (MGO) RFI
RFP - Limited
lanche Air Bag with Air Safe (Back

Pack Full Safe) as part of Special

Clothing and Mountaineering

Equipment

3 RFI for Procurement of Boot Mul- 5th September Indian Army

tipurpose as part of Special 2018 (MGO)

Clothing and Mountaineering

Equipment

4 Assembly Warhead Shell as per 13th August DRDO-NSTL NSTL/19ATT030/

Drawing No. V 08 01 000 2018 LP2A/18-19/04/08

5 Online Invitation of Bids for MIL- 28th August DRDO-CABS CABS/19ATT070/18- RFP - Open
19
STD-1553B PMC Card 2018

6 Fab and Supply of Propulsion 6th August 2018 DRDO-NSTL NSTL/19FCT010/LP- RFP - Limited

Shaft and Components I/18-19/L16

7 Development, Fabrication and 13th August DRDO-NSTL NSTL/19ATT020/ RFP - Open
LP2A/18-19/OT/14 RFP - Open
supply of Instrumentation and 2018
DRDO-DMRL DMRL/19ATT120/G-
Data Acquisition System (IDAS) I/18-19

etc.

8 Upgradation of Cimatron Soft- 13th August

ware to latest version 2018

9 Digital Video Micro scope System 3rdSeptember DRDO-GTRE GTRE/MMG/ RFP - Open
RFP - Open
2018 FEBM/3521/17
RFP - Open
10 Work Package for Blue Light/ 18th August DRDO-ADRDE ADRDE/QMS/MMG/
RFP – Open
White Light Scanning of Govt. 2018 PM/8/MASG/108 (Global)

Transport Aircraft and genera-

tion of 3D CAD (Solid and Sur-

face) Model and 2D Drawings

11 FPGA/DSP Based Digital RF De- 24th August ISRO - DOS PRL/

modulator 2018 PUR-

CHASE/2018E00808

01/LO

12 Procurement of Advanced Small 4th September DG, BSF-MHA P-4/980(SATS)/PC/

Arms Training Simulator 2018 BSF/2018

13 Procurement of 20 No. Mini UAV 6th August 2018 DG, CRPF- NO. R.XV-11/2018- RFP - Open
MHA 19-C(UAV) RFP - Open
14 Light category of Bullet Proof 16th August RFP - Open
Vehicle LBPV 2018 DG, CRPF - U-II-1228/2018-19-
MHA PROC-III
15 Partial Armouring (fabrication) of 23rd August
Bus (43 seater) 2018 DG, CRPF - L.VII-10/2018-19-
MHA MT/160 (BP)

22 | DefInsights | August 2018

Business Opportunities : August 2018

SL TENDER TITLE SUBMISSION ORGANISA- TENDER ID ENQUIRY
NO CLOSING DATE TION/AGENCY TYPE

16 Tender for supply of 64 mm dia, 13th August 2018 GSL G24 / DDN / DPO / RFP - Open
220 mtrs long, Nylon Towing 322934 dtd. RFP - Open
Rope IHQ of MOD 27.07.2018
(Navy)
17 438/Security/Bullet Proof Mor- 3rd August 2018
cha IHQ of MOD
(Navy)
18 Procurement and installation of 6th August 2018 IAF MO(KAR)/438/110(r) RFP - Lim-
CCTV camera 1/17-18/127 ited
Indian Coast
19 Invitation of bids for Indigenous 22nd August 2018 Guard 5BRD/6251/5/3//ISC RFP - Lim-
Development of Aircraft Spares (T) dt 27 Jul 18 ited
Indian Navy
20 Procurement of Voyage Data 16th August 2018 LPC(W)/2301/NAC-16/ RFP - Open
Recorder for ICGS Samudra Pra- Indian Navy NSL-04
hari, ICGS Sankalp, ICGS Samrat
IDS AI/9101/AIIMS RFI - Open
21 RFI for Shortlisting of vendors/ 13th August 2018
System Integrators (SI) for imple- MDL AO/10003/NASI RFI - Open
mentation of Project AIIMS
MOPBR / NS / RFP - Open
22 RFI for setting of Naval Aircraft 31st August 2018 18P40C002 EoI
and Ship Instrumentation and
Telemetry (NASI) OTS/PS/EY/PLNG/EOI/
Floating Pontoon/Rev
23 Procurement of Rope Nylon dia 23rd August 2018 02
40mm Hawserlaid 3strand

24 EoI to hire reputed or capable 17th August 2018
Firms for executing the turnkey
project of Transfer, Load Out and
Launching of Submarines using
Floating Pontoon Load out Barge

25 Machining of Body 2 and Body 3 13th August 2018 MIDHANI MDNPUR/3487027/ RFP-Limited
Castings Indian Army OFELT/306/1819 RFI
RFI
26 Procurement of Rough Terrain 14th August 2018 A/26259/RTFLT/os7 RFI
Fork Lift Trucks (RTFLTs) RFI
Indian Army RFP
27 RFI for Night Sight (TI) for 84MM 13th August 2018
Rocket Launcher for Indian Indian Army
Armed Forces
Indian Army
28 RFI for Telescopic Sight for 13th August 2018
7.62x51MM Assault Rifle (ASLT IHQ of MOD
RIF) (Army)

29 RFI for Telescopic Sight for 13th August 2018
7.62x51MM Light Machine Gun
(LMG)

30 Invitation of bids for supply of 9th August 2018
7.62mm Dragunov Sniper rifle
SVDN

August 2018 | DefInsights | 23

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