Adaptive thinking: rationality in the real world

NAME INDEX 333

MacGregor, D., 138, Mineka, S., 228 Packer, C., 213
161 Mises, R. von, 18, 141, Papert, S., 30
Parducci, A., 152, 291
Manis, M., 251-252 244, 246 Park, B., 242
Manktelow, K. I., 216- Mitchell, S. D., 230 Pascal, B., 204
Moliere, J. B. P., 291 Paulos, J. A., 74
217, 224 Montgomery, H. 132, Pavlov, I. P., 40, 267,
Mansson, S. A., 78
Marmorstein, H., 181 157 268, 269
Marr, D., 94 Morgan, M. S., 241 Payne, J. W., 181, 182
Martignon, L., 52, 122, Morgenbesser, S., 230 Pearson, E. S., 11, 15,
Morrison, D. E., 278
197, 234 Mueser, P. R., 20, 255 17, 115, 264,270,
Martindale, S., 259 Mueser, K. T., 20, 255 272-273, 275-285,
Marzuk, P. M., 78n Murdock, B. B., Jr., 8 287
Massaro, D. W., 9, 14, Murino, M., 215 Pearson, K., 49-50
Murray, D. J., 2, 4, 7, Peichl-Hoffman, G., 81
122, 293 Peirce, C. S., 242
Mauchly, J. 30 16, 45, 61n, 164, 169, Perry, S. W., 78n
Maurer, C., 79n 196, 260-261, 263, Persson, T., 174
Maxwell, J. C., 23, 267, 268, 292 Peterson, C. R., 74
Mynatt, C. R., 14 Phillips, L. D., 17, 51,
295 92-93, 145, 245
May, R. S., 143, 151- Neale, M.A., 243 Piaget, J., 8, 40, 92,
Nesse, R. M., 59 103, 166, 201-202,
152, 157, 248 Neumann, J. von, 21, 211-212, 214-215,
Mayseless, O., 157 225, 232, 250, 267-
MeArthur, L. A., 8 29-31 269, 276
McClelland, A. G. R., Neurath, O., 44 Piatelli-Palmarini, M.,
Newcombe, R. D., 241 61, 65, 237, 243
174 Newell, A., 31-39, 41,- Pinker, S., 226
McClennen, E. E, 173 Pitts, W., 29
McCloskey, D. N., 166 42, 163, 292 Platt, R., 217
McCorduck, P., 30-31, Newton, L, 4 Poincare, H., 4
Neyman, J., 11, 14-15, Poisson, S. D., 92
33, 35n Politzer, G., 221
McCulloch, W. S., 29- 17, 102, 115, 167, Pollard, P., 217, 252,
244, 250, 264, 266, 184, 285
30 270, 272-273, 275- Pomerantz, J. R., 94
McGillis, D., 9 285 Popper, K., 3-4, 24, 28,
McKenzie, C. R., 115 Nguyen-Xuan, A., 221 35, 44
McWeeny, P. M., 193 Nickles, T., 3, 4 Porter, T., 23, 246
Medin, D. L., 115 Nisbett, R. E., 110, 242, Premack, D., 224, 232
Meehl, P. E., 270, 274n, 259, 263 Premack, A. J., 232
Norman, D. A., 8 Pribram, K. H., 34
278 Nozawa, G., 137 Prince, A., 191
Melton, A. W., 11, 269, Nozick, R., 115 Prohaska, V., 169
Nunnally, J. C., 280- Prony, G. R. de, 28, 32
280-281, 285 283, 285 Pugh, K., 78n
Mendel, G., 267 Pylyshyn, Z. W., 94
Merrill, M. A., 235n Oakes, M., 285
Metropoli, N., 32n Oaksford, M., 295 Quetelet, A., 23, 295
Michaela, I. L., 8, 241 Olshen, R. A., 191
Michalski, R. S., 115 Olsson, H., 51, 127
Michelson, A. A., 24 Osherson, D. N., 291
Michotte, A., 8, 40, 224 Over, D. E., 216, 224
Miller, G. A., 34, 37-

38, 285
Miller, G. R, 229
Millikan, R. A., 24, 226
Milson, R., 10, 14

334 NAME INDEX

Raiffa, H., 168, 182, Searle, J., 21 Stevens, S. S., 45
191 Sedlmeier, P., 51, 75, Stewart, T. R., 12, 164
Stich, S., 237, 242
Ramsey, F. P., 194 137, 283, 286n Stigler, S. M., 60n, 94
Raymond, W., 191 Seligman, M. E. P., 212 Stine, G. J., 77, 80n, 82,
Regier, T., 293 Selten, R., 125
Reichenbach, H., 3, 4, Sen, A., 202-203 88
Shafer, G., 155, 245n Stone, G. O., 182
11, 22, 24, 44, 52, Shannon, C., 35n Stone, C. J., 191
170 Shanteau, J., 242, 291 Strack, R, 242
Richardson, J. T. E., Shaughnessy, J. M., 74 "Student," 10, 271
Shaw, J. C., 33 Summers, D. A., 193
284, 285 Shepard, R. N., 37, 57, Suppes, P., 288
Swets, J. A., 6-8, 24,
Richter, H. R., 162,283 59, 19, 196, 291, 293
Rieskamp, J., 51, 174 Sherman, S. J., 242 34, 36, 162
Rittner, C., 73 Siegler, R. S., 169 Swijtink, Z., 9, 278,
Rohm, E., 73 Simmel, M., 232
Ronis, D. L., 152, 154- Simon, H. A., 5, 22, 31- 286

155, 158-159 39, 41-42, 52-54, 94, Taine, H., 227
Rosch, E., 133, 224 102, 110, 125, 163, Tanner, W. P., Jr., 6-8,
Rosenthal, R., 287 167-168, 170, 177,
Rosnow, R. L., 287 193, 209, 259 24, 34, 36, 162
Ross, L., 64, 242, 263 Simon, T., 235n Teigen, K. H., 19, 158
Rouanet, H., 92 Simpson, O. J., 68, 70 Terman, L., 235n
Rozeboom, W. W., 284 Sivyer, M., 162 Tetlock, P. E., 197, 225
Rucci, A. J., 11, 268 Skinner, B. R, 40, 49, Thaler, R. H., 243
Russell, B., 31, 33, 35n 52, 211, 228, 230, Thines, G., 224
Rutter, D. R., 241 267-270 Thomas, D. H., 278
Sloman, S. A., 292 Thomson, G. H., 7
Sahlin, N., 100, 292 Slovic, P., 98, 138, 150, Thomson, W., 23
Saks, M., 242, 246 243 Thorndike, R. L., 12, 48
Samuels, R., 237 Smith, L. D., 23 Thurstone, L. L., 13,
Samuelson, P. A., 203 Smith, A., 28
Savage, L. J., 14,122, Smith, E. E., 291 36, 227, 228
Smolensky, P., 191, 293 Todd, R J., 54, 169
194, 281 Snedecor, G. W., 278 Todd, P. M., 58, 125,
Schaefer, R. E., 74 Snell, J. J. S., 80
Schaffer, S., 26n, 28 Sniezak, J. A., 169 197, 228-229, 233
Schering AG, 79n Spearman, C., 227, 293 Tolman, E. C., 23, 34,
Schiffrin, R. M., 293 Spencer, H., 227
Schlick, M., 44-45, 53 Sperber, D., 191, 224, 163
Schlosberg, H., 48 229 Tooby, J., 53, 59, 64,
Schneider, W. 293 Spettel, C. M., 246
Schochetman, G., 80 Spielberg, R, 80 122, 213-214, 216,
Schoenberger, A., 65, Statistisches 228-229, 234, 252-
Bundesamt, 79, 143 253, 292
242, 251, 253 Steinmann, D. O. 164 Toppino, T., 137
Scholz, R. W., 93, 265 Toulmin, S., 6, 25
Schonemann, P. H., 152 Stephens, D. W., 102, Trope, Y., 21, 257, 259
Schrage, G., 73-74 122, 166, 233 Tu, X. T., 80-81
Schrodinger, E., 267 Tukey, J. W., 22, 287
Schum, D. A., 115 Sterling, T. D., 11, 268 Turing, A., 29-31
Schwartz, S., 80, 278 Tversky, A., 14-16, 19-
Schwarz, N., 225, 291 20, 51, 61, 93, 102,
110, 151, 158, 167,

NAME INDEX 335

237, 242-244, 248- Wason, P., 214-216 Wimsatt, W., 167, 231
249, 251, 254-260, Wattenmaker, W. D., Windeler, J., 67
262, 284, 288, 290- Winer, B. J., 281-282
292 115 Winman, A., 51, 127,
Tweney, R. D., 11, 14, Weber, E. H., 7
186, 268 Weber, U., 188 174
Wells, G. L., 257-259 Winterfeldt, D. von, 93,
Vallone, R., 290 Wendt, D., 242
Voneche, J. J., 211, 268 Wertheimer, M., 34 130, 157, 159, 193,
Vrba, E. S., 230 Westermann, R., 274n 247
White, S., 199 Wise, M. N., 23
Walker, B. J., 186 Whitehead, A. N., 31, Wittgenstein, L., 44
Wallace, B., 188 Wittkowski, K., 80-81
Wallach, L., 289, 290 33, 35n Woodworth, R. S., 48-
Wallach, M. A., 289, Whiten, A., 224, 226, 49
World Health
290 234 Organization, 79-80
Wallendael, L. R., van Whittam, T. S., 259 Wundt, W., 37, 40, 268
Wickelgren, W. A., 8
262 Wiegand, W., 73 Yates, J. R, 152, 154-
Wallsten, T. S., 260, Wilkinson, G. S., 213 155, 158-159
Williams, G.C., 59, 212-
291 Zacks, R. T., 64, 262
Wanke, M., 291 213 Zimmer, A. C., 155
Ward, J. W., 82 Wilson, M., 71 Zytkow, J. M., 35
Wascoe, N. E., 164, 193 Wilson, T. D., 110
Wilson, D., 224

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SUBJECT INDEX

acceptance of new theories, 5, 10, artificial intelligence, 31, 227, 244,
26, 37-39, 42 260

accountability, 225 aspiration level, 167, 193, 259
accuracy, 53, 177, 183, 188, 233 astronomers, 23, 27, 230, 278,
achievement, 46, 51, 53, 163
adaptation, 10, 11, 53, 59, 61, 138, 286
attribution theory, 8, 9, 40
141, 164, 168, 212, 230, 259, availability, 51, 216, 217, 220, 242,
260
adaptive 259-261, 290, 291
coin-flipping, 207,208
problem, 200, 211, 214, 229 BACON, 5, 22
toolbox, 228 base rate, 16, 20, 67, 72, 93, 99, 100,
unpredictability, 233
advertisement, 192 106, 151, 255-260, 263
AIDS counseling, 58, 71, 72, 77-91 neglect (fallacy), 16, 20, 51, 52, 57,
altruism, 213, 216, 217. See also
cooperation 61, 65, 93, 115, 212, 242, 243,
ambiguity of cues, 44, 46 251-254, 266,290
American Psychological Association, only, 114, 116, 118, 120
12, 212, 284 battering, 58, 68-71
Publication Manual, 269,294 Bayes's rule, 10, 16, 17, 51, 60-62,
analysis of variance (ANOVA), 6, 8, 66-69, 75, 81, 92, 93, 99-110,
117, 121, 122, 166, 201, 232,
12, 40, 49, 50, 55, 193, 233,241, 233, 255, 260,262,264, 271,
287
269 physical analog of, 103
Analytical Engine, 28, 30 Bayesian
anchoring and adjustment, 259, 261, reasoning, 52, 59-61, 63, 64, 70,
74, 75, 92-123, 167
290 statistics, 9, 10, 14, 201, 241, 259,
anthropocentrism, 230 277
anthropomorphism, 230 Bechterev's disease, 67
anxiety, 280, 281 behaviorism, 6, 31, 37, 212, 228,
Archimedian axiom, 174 230, 269, 273, 277

337

338 SUBJECT INDEX

blood donors, 77-79 conjunction fallacy, 19, 212,242,
bounded rationality, viii, 8, 53, 54, 248-250, 252, 266. See also
Linda problem
58, 123, 125, 167, 168, 170, 190,
192, 197 conservatism, 92, 290
breast cancer, 58, 60, 61, 65, 66, 95- consistency, 18, 151, 197, 201-204,
98, 101, 102, 108, 110, 245
brochures, 89, 90 209, 232, 233, 246, 250
Brunswik ratio, 11 content effect, 217
bureaux de calculs, 27, 32, 42 context, 44-46

cab problem, 16, 98, 102, 111, 169, of discovery, 3, 4, 13, 24, 25
244, 262 of justification, 3, 13, 20, 21, 23,

calibration, 138, 145, 146, 148, 149, 42
151, 153-155, 161, 248 cooperation, 213, 214, 216, 218, 226.

causal See also altruism
attribution theory, 8, 9, 40 copyediting, 1
base rates, 261 counseling, 77-91
reasoning, 6-9, 12, 40, 50, 241 criminal law, 58, 68-74
cue, 170-176
cheating detection, 199, 211, 213,
216, 217, 220-222, 224, 264 ambiguity, 44, 46
integration, 164
classification and regression trees, redundancy, 196
197 substitution, 131-135, 164, 172,

cognitive 173
illusion, 51, 57, 157, 237, 242- utilization, 46, 133, 137
244, 246-248, 252, 261, 262, validity, 115, 133-135, 137, 164,
266, 290
maps, 23 188, 190
revolution, 1, 4, 6, 29-31, 53, 228,
241, 259 Darwinian psychology, 53
data fitting, 290, 293, 294
coherence, 250. See also consistency decision
color constancy, 59, 61, 63
colorectal cancer, 67, 68 criterion, 7, 13
Columbia Bible, 47, 48, 50 rule, 173
commensurability, 191, 195 decomposition, 35
compulsive hand washing, 55 degree of belief, 18, 246, 273
computational determinism, 47, 91, 268
dichotomies, 290-293
complexity, 99, 121, 227 disciplinary isolation, 295
simplicity, 63, 64, 99, 101-103, disconfirmation strategies,

107, 108, 116 153
computer, 1, 21, 26, 27, 29-33, 35, discovery, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10, 13, 23-26,

38, 42, 43, 293 32, 34, 35, 40, 42, 60, 126, 127,
275
confidence, 18, 19, 129, 135, 136, discrimination, 7, 8, 34, 36
149, 150, 153-155, 169, 246, rate, 176
250, 274, 282 division of labor, 28, 32, 43, 200
domain
confidence-frequency effect, 140, actual, 229, 230
147, 148, 151, 152, 155-158, generality, 228
165, 174 proper, 229, 230

confirmation bias, 159-161, 174,
186, 216, 245, 246, 248

SUBJECT INDEX 339

domain specificity, 199, 200, 211- false
213, 216, 222, 224, 225, 228, negative, 80, 91. See also miss
229, 265, 293 positive, 71, 80, 82, 85-87, 89, 90,
91
double standards, 17, 51, 287 positive rate, 60, 61, 67, 79, 82, 96

ecological false alarm, 7, 107, 273. See also
rationality, viii, 8, 57, 58,105, false positive
125, 199
validity, 11, 45, 46, 52, 53, 133, frequencies, 100
137, 141, 158, 175, 176, 181, rate, 96, 100, 106, 107
182 fast and frugal
heuristic, 123,126, 168, 171, 175,
editors, 11, 49, 212, 238,269, 280,
285, 286 177, 184, 186, 198, 232, 233,
234
Ego, 280,281 lens model, 54, 196
Einstellung effect, 187 Fisherian statistics, 9, 17, 39, 114,
electromagnetism, 26 115, 118-120
ELISA (enzyme-linked flat maximum effect, 51, 193
food, 192,213,214,234
immunoabsorbent assay) test, foraging, 102,206
71, 72, 77, 80, 81, 87, 89, 107 frame problem, 227
emotion, 53, 199, 232, 234 free will, 30
engineer-lawyer problem, 20, 51, French Revolution, 29, 62, 92
244, 254-258, 260 frequency, 57, 91, 253
enlightenment, 27, 28, 34, 35, 55, 92, format, 66, 99, 100, 101, 107, 108,
93, 122, 166, 167, 198, 201, 232, 116, 121, 122, 253
265 judgments, 18, 19, 247-251
view of intelligence, 31, 42 learning, 64, 262
environment, 58, 61, 62, 64, 131, long run, 18, 248
158, 168, 175, 260 frugality, 177,183, 188
of evolutionary adaptiveness, 59 functional validity, 11, 46
laboratory, 41, 57
structure of, 52-54, 58, 105, 125, Galton-Pearson program, 12
168, 182, 190, 262-264 Gambler's fallacy, 290,291
surplus structure, 264 game theory, 213
evolution, 53, 58, 62, 64, 76, 212, general-purpose
227, 268
of cooperation, 217, 223 intelligence, 227, 228
evolutionarily stable strategy, 206, mechanism, 211, 212
213, 214 generative entrenchment, 231
evolutionary theory, 199, 200, 210, genius, 27, 28
213, 216,292 German measles, 103-110, 117, 120
exaptation, 230 God, 10
expert witness, 72-74 Gricean conversational principle,

factor analysis, 12, 55, 227, 293 225
faculty, 200, 227, 228 guilt, 280, 281
Guthrie test, 67
horizontal, 228
psychology, 227 hard-easy effect, 126,127, 129, 141-
vertical, 228 143, 157, 159, 162, 164, 174

reversal, 142, 159

340 SUBJECT INDEX

hemoccult test, 67 menu, 94-122
heuristics, 3, 4, 52, 125,167, 173, processing, 31-39
representation, 52, 58, 62, 63, 76,
185, 187, 194, 259-261
and biases program, 15-21, 92, 88, 94, 100
innumeracy, 58, 74, 95
166, 167, 237, 242-266 insight, 1, 4, 6, 33, 58, 67, 95, 126
of discovery, 22 institutionalization of inferential
fast and frugal, 123, 126,168,171,
statistics, 6, 8, 11-13, 267-288,
175, 177,184, 186, 198, 232, 294
233, 234 intellectual integrity, 46, 49, 50, 55,
ignorance-based decision making, 238
192 intelligence, 26, 27, 29, 32, 33, 41,
one-reason decision making,173, 42, 48, 227, 228, 292
190, 193, 197 artificial, 31, 227, 244, 260
satisficing, 167,170,192, 193, 259 as a combinatorial calculus, 27,
See also anchoring and 34, 35
adjustment, availability, distributed, 43
Minimalist heuristic, recognition Machiavellian, 222, 224, 226, 235
heuristic, representativeness, machine, 28
Take The Best heuristic, Take primate, 226
The Last heuristic, tallying, tools- test, 235
to-theories heuristic intransitivity, 173,194, 195, 197
hierarchical organization, 231, 232 intuitive statistics, 6, 11, 12, 14, 17,
hit rate, 60, 61, 67, 72, 96, 100, 106. 20, 21, 31, 54, 241, 242, 263,
See also sensitivity, power 264, 266
HIV (human immunodeficiency irrationality, 103, 216,237, 249, 265
virus), 71, 72, 77-91
counseling, 71, 72, 77-91 joint occurrence, 114, 115, 118-120
test, 58, 71, 77, 78, 107,122 Journal of the Experimental Analysis
HL-antigen-B27 test, 67
hologram, 21 of Behavior, 49, 269
homme moyen, 23 Journal of Mathematical Psychology,
hommes eclaires, 27, 92, 122
homunculus, 7, 9, 13, 50, 233, 249 269
hot hand fallacy, 290, 291
knowledge, limited, 170, 171, 177,
Id, 280,284-286 179, 183, 184, 186, 187, 195
idiot savant, 27
ignorance-based decision making, Laplacean demon (superintelligence),
12, 167, 168, 170,183, 194, 233,
192 234
illusion of validity, 17
imitation, learning through, 228 law of comparative judgement, 13
inclusive fitness, 213 Leibniz's dream, 201,202, 211
incommensurability, 191, 195 lens model, 54, 196
inference less-is-more effect, 126, 127, 174,

from givens, 169 179, 184
from memory, 169, 194 level of significance, 15, 267, 269,
revolution, 267, 268
information 271, 272, 277, 278, 280-284,
format, 93-122 287
exact, 115, 272, 285, 286
lexicographic strategy, 168, 191

SUBJECT INDEX 341

life insurance, 78 motivation, 202, 203, 209, 210
likelihood, 260, 264 multidimensional

ratio, 7, 13, 69, 70 psychophysics, 45, 50
subtraction, 114, 115, 118, 119 scaling, 55, 293
Linda problem, 19, 169, 197, 248- multiple regression, 4, 54, 182, 183,

250. See also conjunction 185, 186,189,190,193, 194,
fallacy 196
local mental model (LMM), 130, 132, murder, 68-70, 73, 74
133, 136
logic, 132, 166, 197,199,201, 202, name recognition, 192, 230
211, 215,216,221, 222,225, natural
265
of discovery, 3, 4, 22, 35 environment, 57, 132, 133, 139,
Logic Theorist (LT),32, 33, 36, 37 140, 143,163, 233
logical
empiricists, 25 frequencies, 58, 62-68, 70, 72, 75,
positivism, 44 76, 81-83, 88-91, 95, 96, 98,
122
mammography, 58, 60, 62, 65-68,
75, 97, 98, 101-112, 122 sampling, 52, 57, 58, 62, 63, 95,
96, 99, 100, 122
Manhattan Project, 32
manufacturing, 1, 28, 32, 42 selection, 208, 212, 227
maximizing, 204-209 neural networks, 182,190, 193,293
Neyman-Pearson theory, 7, 8, 16, 34,
expected utility, 205
expected value, 206 36, 115, 233, 262, 264, 271-273,
medical diagnosis, 58, 60, 65-68 275, 277, 279, 280, 284, 285,
mental 287
arithmetic, 27 normal distribution, 13, 23
logic, 223 normative, 167,202, 242-244, 246,
model, 131, 212, 256, 258, 259 251, 255, 261, 262, 266
metaphor, 1, 5, 13, 14, 21, 28, 33, null hypothesis, 6, 267-288
testing, 115, 238, 239, 267-288,
38, 39, 41, 42, 54, 58, 125, 247, 294. See also significance testing
262, 265, 280, 295 null science, 295
methodological dogma, 51
mind odds, 69, 70, 89
as a computer, 33-41 one-reason decision making,173,
as an intuitive statistician, 6, 7,
10-14, 31, 50, 54, 247, 264, 190, 193,197, 196
266 one-word explanations, 290, 291
Minimalist heuristic, 184, 185, 188, optimality theory, 191, 192
189, 194,195, 197 overconfidence bias, 17, 18, 51, 129-
miss, 7, 36, 273. See also false
negative 165, 174, 242-248, 252, 266
modularity, 226-235 Oxford English Dictionary, 250, 266
strong, 229
weak, 229 p value, 49, 238, 239, 267, 281-287
module, 227, 229-232, 234, 235 perceptual
moral, 29, 230, 235
sentiment, 27 achievement, 44
compromises, 45
constancies, 11, 44
illusion, 161, 162, 237
perspective change, 220-222
phenylketonuria, 67

342 SUBJECT INDEX

physicians, 64, 66-68, 81, 83, 85, 88, rape, 73
98, 188 rationality, 21, 92, 167, 193, 200,

politeness, 203, 204, 233 201, 206, 209, 210, 243, 246
positive predictive value (PPV), 79, classical, 167, 168, 173, 175, 186,

81-83, 85-91 191, 194
posterior war, 237
recognition, 8, 9, 177, 184
distribution, 100 heuristic, 126, 127, 172, 178, 186,
odds, 69
probability, 20, 60, 62, 98, 100, 187, 191, 192, 234
validity, 178, 180
101, 106, 107, 279, 285 redescription, 260, 261, 290-292
power, 15, 275, 279, 281, 283. See reference class, 133, 136, 142, 143,

also sensitivity 151, 163, 164, 170, 171, 176,
prevalence, 79, 81, 83-88, 90, 91. 256, 263, 264
relative frequency, 17, 19, 102, 116,
See also base rate 117, 246
principle of isolation, 41 format, 119, 120
prior relevance theory, 191
replication fallacy, 285
odds, 69 representation, 52, 58, 62, 63, 76, 88,
probability, 16, 60, 255, 260, 264, 94, 100. See also information
format, information menu
271 training, 75
probabilistic representative
design, 45, 46, 48, 49, 51, 54
functionalism, 11, 45, 46, 48 sampling, 51, 63, 137, 138, 141,
mental model (PMM), 19, 54, 144, 150, 151, 158, 162
representativeness, 19, 20, 45, 93,
126, 129-165, 170, 172, 174, 242, 248, 250, 255, 256, 258-
190, 191, 194, 197, 248, 256, 261, 290, 291
262 ritual, 39, 49, 238, 239, 280, 294
revolution, 238, 241, 267, 268 rule training, 75
probability, 57, 58, 62, 63, 70, 81,
83, 91, 120, 166, 212 sampling
cues, 133, 136 random, 20, 254-257, 259, 263,
epistemic interpretation, 15, 18, 264, 275, 276, 280
246, 273 (see also degrees of systematic, 95, 96
belief) representative, 51, 63, 137, 138,
format, 66-68, 100, 105, 107, 108, 141, 144, 150, 151, 158, 162
112, 119, 121
frequentist interpretation, 15, 17- satisficing, 167, 170, 192, 193, 259
19, 246, 247, 280 scientific community, 5, 12, 13, 26
matching, 205 screening, 58, 66, 67, 96, 102
nonadditive, 245, 266 search, 171, 173, 180, 230
second-order, 64, 100
of single events, 17-19, 65, 69, exhaustive, 193
70, 96, 99, 102, 103, 117, 121, limited, 193
136, 141, 158, 245-248, 252, rule, 172, 187, 188
253 selection task, 197, 199, 214, 215,
theory, 72, 92, 141, 199, 201,
202, 204, 232, 246, 249, 250, 217, 218, 295
261 self-identity, 229
process analysis, 108-111
Property Alpha, 202-204, 209
psychoanalysis, 19, 54, 196, 237
psychophysics, 7, 8, 45, 50

SUBJECT INDEX 343

sensitivity, 60, 61, 67, 72, 79-81, Neyman-Pearson theory, 7, 8, 16,
83-91, 275. See also hit rate, 34, 36, 115, 233, 262, 264, 271-
power 273, 275, 277, 279, 280, 284,
285, 287
shortcut, 58, 103, 105-107, 109
signal-detection theory. See theory of stimulus
equipotentiality, 211, 212
signal detectability detection, 6, 7, 13, 34, 36
significance testing, 9-11, 14, 40, discrimination, 7

115, 270, 271,274, 275, 278, stopping rule, 172, 174, 175, 191,
280, 286. See also null- 193-195
hypothesis testing
similarity, 19, 260,261, 291 strategies
simulation 36, 38, 39, 42, 183, 187, non-Bayesian, 65, 114-116, 118-
192 120
social noncompensatory, 173, 174, 190,
computer, 42, 43 191, 196
context, 265 nonlinear, 173, 174, 193, 194
contract, 211, 213, 216-224, 229- See also Bayes's rule, heuristics,
231, 234, 264 unit-weight linear model
environment, 1, 199
exchange, 199, 211 structural isomorphs, 264
intelligence, 226, 227, 229-231, structure of environments, 52, 53,
233, 235
interaction, 206, 207 58, 106, 125, 168, 182, 190, 262-
objective, 202-204, 209,210, 213 264
organization of work, 1, 26-28 subroutine, 32, 35, 41
origin of computer metaphor, 1, 26 suicide, 77, 78
rationality, viii, 8, 199, 224 Superego, 280, 281, 287
tool, 226 surrogates for theory, 289,290, 292-
worker, 83, 85, 86 295
special theory of relativity, 24
specificity, 79, 80, 81, 83, 88, 89. See Take The Best, 125, 168, 171-197,
also power, false positive rate 233, 234
St. Petersburg paradox, 208, 265
statistical Take The Last, 184, 185, 187-190,
inference, 14, 15, 20, 276, 278, 195
282, 287 (seealso Bayes's rule,
Bayesian statistics, statistics, tallying, 180, 181, 183, 185-187
null-hypothesis testing) teaching, 30, 91
mechanics, 23
thinking, 49, 58, 75, 94, 239 statistical reasoning, 74, 75
statistics testimony
Fisherian, 9, 17, 39, 114, 115, 118-
120 eye-witness, 8, 16, 262
hybrid logic of, 277, 279-281,284, expert witness, 72—74
287, 288 textbooks, 15, 67, 75, 99, 229, 238,
inferential, 6, 11
institutionalization of inferential, 278, 279, 282-286
6, 8, 11-13, 267-288, 294 theory of signal detectability (TSD),
intuitive, 6, 11, 12, 14, 17, 20, 21,
31, 54, 241, 242, 263, 264, 266 6, 7, 13, 34, 36
think-aloud protocol, 36, 37
thinking as calculation, 27-29, 32,

41, 42
threat, 231
threshold, 7, 36
Tit For Tat,214
tools, 1, 5

of justification, 5

344 SUBJECT INDEX utility, 6, 167, 203, 209, 276
maximization, 201
tools-to-theories heuristic, 2-26, 31,
36, 38, 40, 42, 57, 193 vicarious functioning, 46, 48, 53, 54,
134, 164, 196
transitivity. See intransitivity
transparency, 193 Vienna Circle, 4, 5, 11, 24, 44, 53,
triggering algorithm, 231, 232, 235 55
true positives, 82. See also
visual illusion, 242
sensitivity, power
two-process theories, 293 Wason selection task. See selection
Type I error, 7, 36, 246, 272, 273, task

275, 276, 281-284, 286 weighted
Type II error, 7, 15, 36, 246, 273, linear model, 182, 183, 185-187
tallying, 181, 183, 185, 193
275, 276, 281-283
Western blot test, 71, 72, 77, 80, 81,
unconscious inferences, 9
unit-weight linear model, 181, 183, 87, 89

185-187, 193 window period, 84, 86, 87, 88, 91
Universal Characteristic, 201, 211, write-aloud protocols, 109, 111,

225 115