Investment Quarterly Magazine Q4 2020

The End of the Trump Error

The planet’s attack from an external force would
most talented unite the nation. A coronavirus
satirists and pandemic is not a political animal
fiction writ- by any stretch of the imagination.
ers could not Covid-19 infects and hurts without
have made up regard to party affiliation. And yet
many of the the man-baby managed to make it a
things Trump political issue. Blue states were do-
mouthed off ing worse than Red states. Demo-
about this vi- cratic Governors and Mayors ought
rus. A man to talk to man-baby “nicely” if they
revered by wanted their people assisted by the
tens of mil- federal government. Even whether
lions of his to wear a mask took on an absurd
fellow citizens partisan dimension.
leaders met and discussed peace for suggested ingesting disinfectants In the aftermath of the gruesome
the first time ever. to deal with the pandemic. Disin- death of George Floyd, Trump was
It would not however be an over- fectant companies were inundated much more concerned about loot-
statement to make the case that with calls to try to corroborate this ing and rioting than addressing any
Covid-19 ended the Trump Er- and had to issue statements sharply of the black community’s grievanc-
ror. The US, with about 5% of the contradicting the man-baby. es. For this he was rewarded with
world’s population, has more than Leadership from the White House unprecedented black voter turn-
20% of coronavirus deaths. On the on a simple cost-effective preven- out in Georgia, which the man-ba-
one end of the spectrum we have tative measure – wearing masks by carried in 2016 by more than 5
Asian nations like Taiwan, with a was not only missing, it was often points, flipping to the Democratic
population greater than New York at crossroads. The man-baby could column.
City (24,613 deaths), with only 7 not be bothered to be seen wear- As the sun sets on the Trump Er-
deaths and on the other we have ing a mask in public and arguably ror, we can give kudos to Obama’s
what is supposed to be the world’s the most secure State house in the prescient observation when the
greatest country. While there are world became a hotbed of infec- man-baby won the presidency in
many Democratic state and local tions – the opposite of leading by 2016 to much heartbreak and de-
government leaders like New York example. spair on the left: “Reality has a way
City Mayor Bill de Blasio who said Even in the US’ hyper-partisan at- of asserting itself.”
and did breathtakingly dumb things, mosphere there is a belief that an
the buck stops with Trump as coun-
try CEO.

Trump’s Covid-19 re-
sponse was and continues
to be a mind-blowing trag-
ic comedy of errors. The
man-baby was briefed about
the coming pandemic in
January and failed miserably
to learn anything from the
myriad of experts at his dis-
posable. In his infinite wis-
dom, he decided that it was a
smart play to simply pretend
that the pandemic would
just go away, like a miracle.

www.zfn.co.zw 51Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

The 2020 US
presidential election
and us in Zim

shiftedWorld focus the world’s and particularly Af-
rica’s attention every four years.
to the US From the conventions, the cam-
election in paigns and the presidential de-
early No- bates to the nail-biting anxiety
vember as Americans went to around the results, the elections
the polls to select the country’s present a global civic moment
next president. The election for African audiences, many of
pitted incumbent president and whom are denied such experi-
Republican candidate Donald ences in their own countries.
Trump against the Democrats While voting was confined to
pick Joe Biden. Given the Unit- American soils, the outcome of
ed States’ status as a global pow- the elections has far reaching
er, it goes without saying that implications for Africa and the
its elections are consequential rest of the world. The turn of
to the rest of the world. Initially, events in the United States is
one must acknowledge that it is somewhat astonishing, as the
the theatrical dimension of the country is seen as a paragon of
US plebiscite that galvanises western democracy, following

Tavonga Njaya 52Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

www.zfn.co.zw

www.zfn.co.zw 53Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

The 2020 US presidential election and us in Zim14. Yearly Market Statistics

the announcement of Biden as Why the US elec-
the president-elect with Trump tions matter for Af-
refusing to concede and filing rica?
allegations of election fraud.
Africa’s interest in the
As if not ironic enough, just a US elections stems from
day before the United States went tremendous expectations
to the polls, the Secretary of State of who occupies the
Mike Pompeo called on Tanzanian White House. Some of
authorities to fully address election which include whether
irregularities. At the time this state- Africa will obtain more
ment sounded very rich given Pres- resources from the new
ident Trump had not committed to occupant or will there be
a peaceful transfer of power should more presidential visits
he lose to Biden. And the tweet to Africa. These expecta-
looked even worse a few hours after tions are only rational as landmark Republican decisions. By
that, when Trump declared victo- Democratic presidents have been contrast, the Rwandan genocide oc-
ry and falsely claimed the election thought to be more responsive to curred under the watch of Clinton
was being stolen (African-style). If African aspirations and interests and some have criticised the Obama
this had happened elsewhere in the than the Republicans. Also, the ma- administration for deepening the
world, the United States would have jority of African- Americans sup- militarisation of US-Africa policy.
been first to admonish a leader going port the Democratic Party in US Substantively, therefore, Africa’s
rogue, as Pompeo did. This election elections, hence Africans have tend- popular preferences for Democratic
came with a mixture of amazement ed to sympathise and support Dem- presidents are always oversold.

and apprehension, especially for Af- ocratic presidential candidates. What does this Biden win
ricans. The potential degeneration
into election dispute and violence in However, there have been fallacies mean for Africa and Zim-
the United States is a reflection that about Republican marginalisation babwe?
such outcomes are not confined to of Africa and Democratic champi-
Africa only but even mighty United oning of African causes which, for The Biden victory brings a gleam
States is not immune. This comes at the most part, is farther from the of hope to the world that democra-
a time when African countries are truth. Since the end of the Ronald cy still exists as they witnessed how
undergoing difficulties of their own Reagan administration, subsequent America’s democracy was subjected
that are considered deflationary to Republican administrations under to an unprecedented test in its his-
democratisation efforts, and this George H.W Bush (1989-1993) tory, yet it prevailed. A keynote for
compels us to ponder on what the and George W. Bush (2001-2009) Africa is that this demonstrates the
US election means for Africa. matched, and in some cases, out- power of checks and balances and
performed the democratic admin- the importance of governance that
is anchored on the rule of law and
istrations of Bill human rights. The African conti-
Clinton and Barack nent has watched how great was the
Obama. The initial number of Americans who stood
humanitarian inter- up and spoke in favour of racial
vention into Soma- justice, inclusion and human rights
lia 1990 under the and turned that into an active and
elder Bush and the peaceful engagement in the political
launch of the Pres- process of their country. However,
ident’s Emergency that’s as far as it goes because his-
Plan for AIDS Re- torically, it has not mattered much
lief (PEPFAR) pro- for Africa whether Democrats
gram in 2003 under or Republicans are in the White
the younger Bush House. So it is highly likely that as
were among the far as foreign policy towards Africa

www.zfn.co.zw 54Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

is concerned, there will not be any nomic Recovery Act (ZIDERA) in
substantive change. response to undemocratic practices,
human rights abuses and economic
The US- Africa policy has seemed mismanagement. Among other de-
to oscillate around a narrow set of mands stated in the act include; free
global interests, including war on and fair elections; mineral revenue
terror, countering china and Russian transparency; commitment to eco-
influence, contests of conservative nomic recovery and adherence to
or liberal values around sexual re- the rule of law by the government.
productive health and human rights. The least to say without any genu-
In as much as the Biden-Harris vic- ine efforts to attain such reforms,
tory owes to the African Americans the outcome of the US election will
and people of colour a great debt, not change the status quo of the re-
it does not owe Africa anything at lations between the two countries.
all. If at all, it is the African lead- Closely, many people hoped that the
ers who owe their citizens a much transition from President Robert
higher level of seriousness and uni- Mugabe to Emmerson Mnangag-
ty. In the absence of a coordinated wa in 2017 would soften tensions,
engagement by the collective lead- but the US actually renewed the
ership, it only means that the conti- Act in 2018. This was because the
nent’s hope lies in three things; that US found no basis for changing the
is who Biden appoints as secretary course of the relations, in that the
of state and secretary for Africa, system had just remained the same,
respectively; how the Harris effect and the government was doing un-
plays out in handling global affairs der the Mugabe regime continued
as well as issues pertaining to peo- under Mnangagwa.
ple of colour, human rights and mi-
gration; and where and how Biden In summary, while the US has
and Harris choose their priorities never really had a coherent and
and investments. constructive policy for Africa,
the Biden victory may see the
Closer to home, Zimbabwe has mending and creation of US-Af-
had somewhat frosty relations with rica relations picking from the
the US having been under sanctions president-elect’s promise to re-
since 2003. The coming in of Biden engage with the world. However,
inevitably stirs some anticipation, the African continent shouldn’t
hope and apathy with some cyni- read too much into this lest it be-
cism. The US Congress approved comes naïve or complacent.
the Zimbabwe Democracy and Eco-

www.zfn.co.zw 55Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

Zimbabwe Economic Data Page 2020

Inflation October 2020 Month-on-Month Year on Year
Consumer Price Index December - 19
Food Inflation 3.15% 401.66%
Non-Food inflation $193.27 bln 385.02%
$765,746,898.00 3.91% 413.85%
Financial Services $6,030,015,371.62 2.63%
Banking sector 193.56
Total Assets - $bln June - 20 37.77
Total Loans -$ bln 29.47
Net Capital Base - $bln 60.64 97.4
Total Deposits - $bln 12.63 13.46
Net Profit - $mln 10.5%
ROA 9.75 27.8%
ROE 34.5 61.7%
CAR 6.41 37.7%
LDR 9.0% 1.0%
NPL 33.0% 74.9%
Liquidity Ratio 39.6%
36.6%
Zimbabwe Stock Exchange 1.8%
ZSE Market Capitalisation November 2020 72.4%
Foreign Investor Inflows ytd
Foreign Investor Outflows ytd

ZSE Top ten by market capitalisation Septembr 28, 2018 % of total market cap

CBZ $25,393,279,706 13.1
Delta $22,233,380,968 11.5
Innscor $15,972,580,748 8.26
Econet $13,094,589,562 6.8
Cassava 5.1
FBCH $9,826,059,475 4.6
Padenga $8,932,969,525 4.2
OK Zimbabwe $8,143,398,964 3.6
BAT $6,900,485,508 2.5
RTG $4,859,193,254 2.4
Total $4,741,441,532 62.06
$120,097,379,242

International Trade (US$m) 4 mnths to April 2019 4 months to April 2020
Imports
Exports Q3 2019 $4.586 bln $4.008 bln
Trade Balance-deficit $6.59 bln $2.759 bln $2.550 bln
$6.42 bln $1.827 bln $1.458 bln
Tax Revenue $6 bln
Gross collections Q3 2020
Net collections $58.81 bln
Target $57 bln
$44.83 bln
www.zfn.co.zw
56Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

Zimbabwe Economic Data Page 2020

Tobacco production (2018)

Year Growers Area (ha) Mass sold (kg) US$/kg Average yield (kg/ha) Gross value US$
2020 140,257 35988 182,398,614 2.5 5,068 452.3
2019 165,130 42000 257,547,838 2.03 6,132 522.6

Mineral production Jan-July 2020 2019 outturn
Gold (kg)
Chrome (tonnes) 13,001 28,142
Coal (tonnes) 714,176 1,600,723
Nickel (tonnes) 1,442,322 2,566,658
Copper (kg)
Diamonds (carats) 8,630 16,283
4,860 8,731
5,957,171
560,875

Regional CPI Data October 2020 Regional currencies against the US$ Nov-20 Jan-20 Change%
Angola Angola Kwanza +35.52
Botswana 325.92 Botswana Pula 646.92 477.356 +3.96
DRC 104.10 DRC CDF 10.8992 10.4838 +16.83
Malawi 123.73 Malawi MWK 1,946.00 1665.62 +2.91
Mozambique 126.06 748.895 727.704 +20.70
Namibia 126.90 Mozambique MZN 60.8373 +8.47
Tanzania 141.65 Namibia 73.43 14.0399 +1.18
Zambia 109.93 Tanzania 15.2287 2281.48 +49.43
Zimbabwe 274.20 Zambia 2,308.46
2301.70 14.04 +386.88
Zimbabwe 20.979 16.8038
81.8151

Commodities vs (previous) Nov-20 Jan-20 Change%
Precious Metals($/oz)
Gold 1935.28 1,807.7 1,506.7 +19.98
Platinum 7068.91 981.5 987.4 -0.59
Palladium 16343 +7.28
Silver 18522.48 2,430.3 2,265.4
Base Metals(US$/tonne) 1915.62 23.5 18.0 +30.72
Aluminium 2669.69
Copper 1773.09 +9.15 -25.05
Nickel 6031.21 +17.21
Tin 13506.86 +21.00 +26.95
Lead 17029.18 +8.77 +146.15
Zinc 1923.93 -0.43
Energy 2354.31 +13.40 +25.05
Brent Crude ($/barrel) - +2.94

47.67 63.6 +250.00
+25.65
Agriculture Commodities Nov-20 Jan-20 +4.63
White Maize (Safex) - $/tonne
White Maize (GMB) - $/tonne 232.39 183.05
Yellow Maize (Safex) - $/tonne 32000 13000
Wheat (safex) - $/tonne 227.66 182.05
Wheat (GMB) - $/tonne 317.69 308.62
Soya (safex) - $/tonne 56000 16000
Seed Maize - $/tonne 554.87 441.60

745 712

www.zfn.co.zw 57Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

www.zfn.co.zw 58Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

www.zfn.co.zw 59Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly

PLEASE CONTACT US

FOR TRUSTED

FINANCIAL

MARKETS

INTELLIGENCE

Email: 60Q3 Edition | Investment Quarterly
[email protected]
[email protected]
Phone:
+263 787 629 333 / +263 788 738 975
+263 772 768 364 / +263 733 016 576

www.zfn.co.zw