12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Correlations – SPY vs. ES • The SPDR S&P 500 trust is an exchange-traded fund which trades on the NYSE Arca under the symbol (NYSE Arca: SPY). SPDR is an acronym for the Standard & Poor's Depositary Receipts, the former name of the ETF. It is designed to track the S&P 500 stock market index. This fund is the largest ETF in the world (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPDR_S%26P_500_Trust_ETF) 251
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Correlations – QQQ vs. NQ The PowerShares QQQ, previously known as the QQQQ, is a widely held and traded exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index. The Nasdaq 100 Index is composed of 100 of the largest international and domestic companies, excluding financial companies, that are listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange, based on market capitalization. Therefore, QQQ is heavily weighted toward large-cap technology companies and is often viewed as a snapshot of how the technology sector is trading. (https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061715/what-qqq-etf.asp) 252
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Correlations – VXXB or VIX The Volatility Index, or VIX, is an index created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), which shows the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities on S&P 500 index options. This volatility is meant to be forward looking, is calculated from both calls and puts, and is a widely used measure of market risk. The VIX is often referred to as the "investor fear gauge." Fear, volatility, and the index move up when stock prices are falling and investors are fearful. The index, volatility, and fear decline when stock prices are rising. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp) 253
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 254 Correlation: USD/YEN - ES • Investors shift their capital in case of uncertainty from stock markets, indices in Forex markets • YEN is seen as the negative indicator of the S&P 500 (ES) • Tight correlation between USD/YEN and S&P 500 • YEN is in diffcult times the „Flight to Quality“ • S&P 500 and YEN have (normally) an inverted ratio to each other. This can change – see 2016 • At times of high correlation, YEN is used to hedge against the S&P 500 • Rule of Thumb: • If YEN soars – indices will drop (S&P 500) • If YEN plummets – indices are rising (S&P 500)
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 255 Correlation: ES – YEN
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 256 Correlation: ES – YEN
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 257 Correlation: ES – YEN
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12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 263 Correlations: Treasuries – S&P 500 • 30 Year Bond (ZB), 10 Year T-Note (ZN), 5 Year T-Note (ZF) correlates strongly • Stock- and Bondmarkets correlates contrary • When Bond market soars, the Stocks are likely to fall • Investors tend to shift their capital • Investors are hedging the S&P 500 market against the Bonds and vice versa
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 264 S&P 500 ZB 30 Year ZF 10 year ZN 5 Year Correlations: Treasuries, Indices BUND
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 ES - ZB – ZN - ZF 265
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 ES - ZB – ZN - ZF 266
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 ZB - ZN 267
Bookmap™ Part 7: Trading Preparation
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 269 Syllabus Absorption Liquidity Strategies Correlations Auction LOB Exhaustion Adv. Analysis Tools Book Flipping Spoofing /Layering Quote Stuffing Stop Runs Bookmap™ Oganization and Data Presentation Data Feed CVD Large Lot Tracker Ice berg Detector Volume Imbalance POC Sweep Practice Practice Practice Practice
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 270 • Trading Day Preparation • Macro View (Tage, 60min) • Micro View (10 min, 5 min) • Historical Chart „synchronisation“ • Cloud Notes for potential important price levels (Google Docs) • Custom Notes for ad hoc entries Goals
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 271 • Analyze your instrument in daily and minute charts • Y-Close (GAP), Y-Low, Y-High, PP, R-Open, Pre-High, Pre-Low, Y-VWAP, etc. • Transfer important price levels into Bookmap™ • Dynamically with Google Docs via Notes -> Cloud Notes • Manually during the trading day via Notes -> Custom Notes • Algorithmic programs trade most of the time parallel between price levels • Draw horizontal lines at Swing Highs and Swing Lows Preparation - Macroview
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 272 Trading Day Preparation Day 60 min
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 273 Cloud Notes
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Macroview and Structure – example Daily Chart 274
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Macroview and Structure – example 30 min. 275
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Microview and Structure – example 5 min. 276
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 277 • Each market is manipulated (every day) by algorithmic programs • Algos moves in parallel between price levels • Mark the high and low of swings • Horizontal markings coincide with High Term Liquidity levels • In Bookmap™ applicable if historical data are subscribed Macroview and Algos
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 278 Macroview and Algos - Preparation
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 279 Macroview and Algos - Preparation
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12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 281 Macroview and Algos - Preparation
• Use current market data to prognosticate the daily trend • Correlations are highly reliable indications • Look 1 day and 2-3 day back. What is / was the trend? • Mark previous daily data in your chart (High, Low, Gap(!), Open..) • Mark important liquidity levels (Long Term High Liquidity) • Use additional technical indicators like McClellan or similar • Use a decision table • Always be aware that current analysis can be affected by daily events! 12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Trend Definition 282
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Trend Definition – Decision Table Example: S&P 500 Future (ES mini) 283 Indication Trend Result Yen / USD (6J) 1 day – 3 and more days Green / Red / Neutral Gold (GC) 1 day – 3 and more days Green / Red / Neutral Treasuries (ZB, ZN, ZF) 1 day – 3 and more days Green / Red / Neutral Dow Jones (YM) Correlation with ES and NQ Green / Red / Neutral Nasdaq (NQ) Correlation with ES and YM Green / Red / Neutral Shares: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG https://www.finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec Green / Red / Neutral Technical Indicators (McClellan) Trend definition (https://www.mcoscillator.com/) Green / Red / Neutral Daily Liquidity Model Long Term High Liquidity (see next) Mark it in BM chart News Skew the trend !! News services: DataFlash https://www.financialjuice.com/home#
Liquidity 12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 284 Watch for Liquidity as a first Estimate Liquidity Liquidity Prio 1 Liquidity Prio 2 Liquidity Zoom out and observe current Long Term High Liquidity levels.
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 285 Prio 1 Liquidity Prio 2 Liquidity Prio 3 Liquidity
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 286 Trend Definition ES – YEN – Gold – 30y Bond Trend Definition Shares vs Treasuries
Bookmap™ Strategies Pattern Execution Summary
• Consistency • The ability to clearly identify if it‘s working or not • Having a close stop and a far target • High Risk:Reward (R:R) ratio • Patience 12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 What makes a Good Setup? 288
• Sweeps are signs of liquidation, capitulation • See Sweep chapter • Leaves always an imbalanced limit order book! • MUST always be traded contrary • Pattern • Wait until sweep comes to an end • Does the market retest price at top/bottom? • Volume retesting top/bottom must be clearly lower then traded before • Use Divergences, ASK / BID Imbalances • Target • Price seeks liquidity • Correlation to other markets 12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Sweep – Contrary Trading 289
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• Re-Bid means to enter market and to take advantage of it‘s direction • Pattern • Bullish Market • Liquidity above attracts price • Execution • Step in and re-bid the move • Target = Liquidity above • Note • Stop below last low • R:R ratio not optimal 12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Re-Bid – after open 294
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 295 Re-Bid
• Re-Offer means to enter market and to take advantage of it‘s direction • Pattern • Bearish Market • Fast price action, mostly at the beginnig of trading session • Liquidity below attracts price • Execution • Step in and re-offer the move (market or limit) • Target = Liquidity below • If no liquidity below, ride the move until exhausted (Sweep) • Note • Stop above last high • R:R ratio not optimal 12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Re-Offer 296
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 297 Re-Offer
• Time / Timing is the most important factor in Trading • Price seeks liquidity • Pattern • Bullish Market • Firm Support at a price • Liquidity attract buyers above • Execution • Buying dips at re-tested price level • Target = Liquidity above • Help • Draw a rectangle around re-tested price 12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 Time and Liquidity as an Indicator 298
12 December 2019 © 2019, TTW Trading Services Ltd. based on Bookmap™ 7.1.0 299 30 – 60 min
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