FINANCIAL DATA EPS (Cent) 100.5 DPS (Cent) 82.0 Net Asset per Share (RM) 6.62 Closing Share Price (RM) 18.00 ROE (%) 15.18 ROA (%) 11.0 PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities 2.1 INTRODUCTION OF PETRONAS GAS BHD PETRONAS Gas Bhd (PGB) commonly known as Petroliam Nasional Berhad is the largest company that leads a Gas infrastructure and utilities company in Malaysia but operated globally and was established in 1974. The core business of PETRONAS Gas Bhd is Gas Processing which involves in the process of upstream the natural gas from offshore Peninsular Malaysia into ethane, sales gas, propane and butane. Next, Gas Transportation, transporting processed gas to end users across Peninsular Malaysia including exporting to Singapore. Thidly, Regasification which includes the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) regasification into the Peninsular Gas Utilization pipeline network, as well as providing services such as LNG reloading, truck loading, and gassing up and cooling down. Lastly, Utilities where it manufactures, markets, and supplies industrial utilities to varies petrochemical businesses in the Kertih and Gebeng Industrial Areas. 2.1.1 DESCRIPTION OF PETRONAS GAS BHD 2.1.2 STOCK SUMMARY Shariah Company Name Bloomberg Ticker Bursa Code Board Date of Listing Number of Share Market Capitalization Avg Volume (10) 52 Week Range Day's Range High/Low Free Float P/E Dividend Yield STOCK DATA Shariah Complaint PETRONAS Gas Bhd PTG MK PETGAS (6033) Main 14 September 1995 RM 1,979 Million RM 32,53 Billion 529.37K 15.24-18.00 16.38-16.58 16.58/16.38 34.4% 17.13 4.38% EXHIBIT 1: The Stock Data of PETRONAS Gas Bhd EXHIBIT 2: The Financial Data of PETRONAS Gas Bhd FY2021 Below shows the stock data and financial data of PETRONAS Gas Bhd (PGB) FY2021: Analyst: Adorie Sabinus Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625
ROE NP MARGIN 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 40 30 20 10 0 DY PAYOUT 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 150 100 50 0 ROE AND NP MARGIN DY AND PAYOUT PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities The highest ROE: YEAR 2020 with 15.91 The highest NP MARGIN: YEAR 2017 with 37.78 14.32 37.78 34.71 13.96 14.61 36.35 15.91 37.24 15.18 37.38 The highest DY: YEAR 2020 with 7.90 The highest PAYOUT: YEAR 2020 with 125.05 72.85 78.70 83.84 125.05 81.58 3.74 3.97 5.06 7.90 4.80 The chart below shows the stock price of PETRONAS Gas Bhd (PGB) FY2021: Source: Trading View of PETRONAS GAS BHD 2.1.2 HISTORICAL STOCK PRICE CHART The opening price of PETRONAS Gas Bhd were RM17.34, closing price of RM17.18 with a Market Capitalization of RM35.6 Billion and an Average Daily Traded Volume (ADTV) of 753,935. Earning Per Share (EPS) of 100.5 cent, Dividend Per Share (EPS) of 82 cent and Total Shareholder Return of 9.5%. Q1 Interim 16 cent 21 June 2021 Q2 Interim 16 cent 20 September 2021 Q3 Interim 18 cent 20 December 2021 Q4 Interim 18 cent 22 March 2022 Special 10 cent 22 March 2022 Dividend Payment Date Analyst: Adorie Sabinus Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625 EXHIBIT 3: The ROE and NP MARGIN, and DY and PAYOUT of PETRONAS Gas Bhd EXHIBIT 4: PETRONAS Gas Bhd's Dividend Payment Date
PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities 2.2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 2.2.1 PRICE AND VOLUME PATTERN 2.1.1 Support & Resistance Analyst: Adorie Sabinus Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 PETRONAS Gas Bhd (Trading Sell) - 1 July 2022 ( 1 Month Time-Frame) PETRONAS Gas Bhd stock information as at 1 July 2022 Opening Price : RM16.48 High : RM16.58 Support Level : RM16.145 Closing/Last Price : RM16.50 Low : RM16.38 Resistance Level : RM16.675 Support and Resistance are two respective levels on the price chart of a stock that are used as limits to the range of market movement. Support level is a level that support the market price action for a period of time. It represents the buying interest (demand) is strong enough to overcome the selling pressure to prevent the price from declining further whereas resistance level is the opposite of support where the selling pressure is strong enough to overcome buying pressure to prevent the price from rising further. Normally, the support level is where the price will stop falling and expected to bounces back up, meanwhile, resistance level is where price will stops rising and expected to move downward. Hence, support and resistance (S&R) assist traders to analyse and identify trends to make decision before start to trade in the market. We could see a peak/trough on the chart where prices have repeatedly halted its movement and reversed. In June 14th is where breakout occur as it touch the resistance point (RM16.675) and breakout also occur in June 17th and 20th as it break through the support point (RM16.145). However, the price rebounce down and up back in between the resistance and support line. Indicating that, both buyers and sellers are actively participate in the stock market. As the price reach and touch the resistance line in June 30th, the price then fall below the resistance level where the buyers are equally matched by the sellers which is at the current price of RM16.50. As soon as the seller takes place, the price bounce back from the resistance level. This could signal for traders to enter short position (sell) and targeting a profit and stop loss point to minimize losses. However, when breakout occur at the resistance line the investor should hold as it will move higher to reach at the maximum capital gain. But if the break out occur at support line, indicates that the price will fell until it reach the lowest price below the support line. Based on the stock chart of PETRONAS Gas Bhd: Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625 Source: Trading View of PETRONAS GAS BHD
Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities Analyst: Adorie Sabinus 2.1.2 Volume Analysis The evaluation of the number of shares or contracts of a securities that have been traded in a certain time period is known as volume analysis. In other words, it indicates how many stocks were bought and sold in the stock market which represent the traders' interest in trading stock. In general, volume refers to the number of shares traded every day. Volume analysis is one of the elements that technical analysts utilize to guide their trading decisions and to make a prediction about future price movements of the stock. Additionally, volume may be used to measure market strength where a rising markets with increasing volume are often seen as healthy and strong. However, the trend is getting the strength to downward when the price decline on increasing volume. PETRONAS Gas Bhd (Trading Sell) - 1 July 2022 The highest volume point recorded throughout the year 2022 was in June 17th where a red volume bar were formed which represent a higher Net Selling Volume as the price is lower or lack of interest among the trader for PGB's stock. The closing price and opening price on July 1st remain the same (RM16.50) was higher than that of June 30th (RM16.44). As such, the bar for July 1st will be green in colour but the volume bar is falling from 1.373 million in June 30th to 344.7K in July 1st. This shows that the stock price is moving up and volume is falling. Indicating that the interest and excitement among the potential buyers for PGB's stock has reduced and the uptrend is going to reverse. Instead of going up, it will form a downward trend on the chart as the volume show decreasing number of volume on July 1st. Therefore, the decision to take as an investor is to enter into short position by selling PGB's stock. Setting for a stop loss to minimize losses and also the profit target as to exit from the market. PETRONAS Gas Bhd stock information as at 1 July 2022 Opening Price : RM16.48 High : RM16.58 Closing/Last Price : RM16.50 Low : RM16.38 Based on the stock chart of PETRONAS Gas Bhd: Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625 Source: Trading View of PETRONAS GAS BHD
2.1.3 Candlestick Patterns Inverted Hammer is a candlestick that help traders to forecast or predict the future price movement. Notice that the stock price formed a bullish version of Inverted Hammer after a downtrend and it is the times that the trader will buy the stock as there are willing to buy at lowest price causing the buyer to put pressure on the stock price to increase slowly. As the chart give the trader a signal of confirmation of bullish trend will come as inverted hammer appear where it has a long upper weak with a short lower wick and a small body filled with green colour. Thus, we should enter into long position at the price of RM16.305 with a stop loss of RM16.235 and Profit target of RM16.510. PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities Analyst: Adorie Sabinus Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 2.1.4 Price Patterns PETRONAS Gas Bhd (Trading Buy) - 1 July 2022 Bullish Rectangle Notice that the stock price formed sideways between the two parallel level of support and resistance after an upward trend. The PGB's stock price bounce up and down repeatedly as it reach and touch the support and resistance point. Because of that, the chart formed a price pattern called Bullish Rectangle which could be signal of continuation of an upwards trend if breakout occur at resistance point. This means that the rectangle trend will end once the breakout happen and the price move ups as expected. Hence, as an investors, I should enter into a long position at the price of RM16.50. Based on the stock chart of PETRONAS Gas Bhd: A rectangle is a chart pattern that formed when the price is bouncing or moving between the two parallel level which is support and resistance levels. Bullish rectangles are continuation patterns that occur when a price pauses temporarily during an uptrend which formed sideways in between the support and resistance level. Opening Price : RM16.48 Closing/Last Price : RM16.50 Entry Price : RM16.50 PETRONAS Gas Bhd (Trading Buy) - 6 July 2022 Inverted Hammer (Bullish version) Inverted Hammer is a signal that shows the bullish reversal might happen after a downward trend or the price has reach to its lowest price. Normally, when there is buyer pressure to drive the price higher by purchasing the stock, an inverted hammer will show on the chart. With the formation of an inverted hammer, it give the traders to enter into long position as price may change its direction and rise. Based on the stock chart of PETRONAS Gas Bhd: Opening Price : RM16.32 Closing/Last Price : RM16.36 Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625 Source: Trading View of PETRONAS GAS BHD Source: Trading View of PETRONAS GAS BHD
PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities 2.2.2 TECHNICAL AND MOMENTUM INDICATORS 2.2.1 Bollinger Bands (BB) Analyst: Adorie Sabinus Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 John Bollinger as an inventor for one of the technical analysis namely Bollinger Bands. Bollinger Bands used by the analyst to measure the volatility range of the market. Yet, it also inform traders whether the stock market is LOUD or QUIET where the band will expand as the stock market LOUD and the band will contract if the market is QUIET. Additionally, it assists in identifying and determining the "Overbought" (Price breaks above the upper band) or "Oversold" (Price break through the lower band) condition. In Bollinger Bands, there are three lines that can be found on the chart such as the (1) Upper Band, (2) Middle Line, and (3) Lower Band. Upper Band and Lower Band will represent two standard deviations above and below the Middle Line, whereas Middle Line is a Simple Moving Average (SMA) 20 days. In general, the lower band shows a level that is low or cheap whereas upper band shows a level that is high or expensive. Notice that the PGB's stock price chart show a Narrow Bands = Low Volatility of price on the market (from June 24th to 28th). As we can see at the latest price of RM16.40, the price reach and touch the lower band, the price then bounces back to return to the middle of the bands (RM16.40) which known as Bollinger Bounce where as the price touch the upper or lower band, it will rebounce and move to the middle line. This Bollinger indicators can be used to make decision either to buy or sell the stock. Some traders may decide to buy (Entry) once the price hit the lower band and sell (Exit) when price touch the upper band. Looking back at the chart above, the price show an uptrend movement with a decreasing price, it could be a signal of buying as there is a possibilities for the price to move to the middle line by entering into a long position (Buy). Based on the stock chart of PETRONAS Gas Bhd: PETRONAS Gas Bhd (Trading Buy) - 4 July 2022 PETRONAS Gas Bhd stock information as at 4 July 2022 Opening Price : RM16.44 High : RM16.42 Closing/Last Price : RM16.40 Low : RM16.40 Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625 Source: Trading View of PETRONAS GAS BHD
2.2.2 Rate of Change (ROC) PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities Analyst: Adorie Sabinus Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 Rate of Change (ROC) is a momentum technical indicators that measures the percentage change between price from one period which is the current or latest price to the a number of periods ago. This gives most potential investors insight into how fast the stock price is rising and falling. The Rate of Change (ROC) not only assist traders to determine and identify the momentum but also the overbought and oversold condition on the stock market. Additionally, this indicator are graphed against zero level midpoint that will fluctuate and move above or below the zero line. As the price move above the 0 indicating a positive momentum meanwhile when price move below 0 it will generate a negative momentum in stock price. Generally, the price will rising (bullish) as the ROC remains positive and will falling (bearish) as the ROC remains negative. PETRONAS Gas Bhd (Trading Sell) - 4 July 2022 PETRONAS Gas Bhd stock information as at 4 July 2022 Opening Price : RM16.44 High : RM16.50 Closing/Last Price : RM16.40 Low : RM16.36 Notice that the PGB's stock price chart show a negative Rate of Change of -0.61. As the Rate of Change appear to be in negative, it indicates that a selling pressure is taking place which represent the seller presence on the market that push the price down. Since the Rate of Change on July 5th was negative (-0.61), this show that the ROC have crosses below zero line, showing a sell signal. The more negative the Rate of Change on the chart, the stronger the selling pressure which can affect the stock price to move and decline faster on the market. The decline in price can be stopped as the buyers enter the market by buying as the lowest price and will push the price higher to defeat the seller. Based on the stock chart of PETRONAS Gas Bhd: Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625 Source: Trading View of PETRONAS GAS BHD
PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities 2.2.3 Relative Strength Index (RSI) Analyst: Adorie Sabinus Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also known as a momentum oscillator indicators developed by J.Welles Wilder, a technical analyst, in 1978. This indicator was widely used and popular among the analyst especially the swing traders to measure the speed and change of price movements in the market. Based on J.Welles Wilder, there are two market condition namely overbought and oversold. RSI is viewed overbought when above 70-100 and oversold below 30-0. When overbought, it shows that the price might decline whereas oversold shows that the price might soon going up. Instead of using RSI to looking at the overbought and oversold, traders also use it to look for centerline crossovers namely a rising centerline crossover and falling centerline crossover. A rising centerline crossover happen when the RSI value crosses above the 50 line and moving towards 70 line which indicates that the market trend is increasing in strength and viewed as a bullish signal for investor. A falling centerline crossover is happen when the RSI value decline below the 5o line and moving towards the 30 line. This means that, the market trend is weakening in strength and viewed as a bearish signal. PETRONAS Gas Bhd (Trading Sell) - 4 July 2022 PETRONAS Gas Bhd stock information as at 4 July 2022 Opening Price : RM16.44 High : RM16.50 Closing/Last Price : RM16.40 Low : RM16.36 In using Relative Strength Index, it can help the investor to determine trend movement by looking at RSI. If looking for UPTREND, the RSI should be above 50, and ensure that the RSI below 50 when looking for DOWNTREND. Looking at the chart above, the price stop in the middle of RSI which is 47.75 below 50. As the RSI shows a bearish signal, therefore, there is possibility for it to fall further until it reach the 30 line which indicates the market trend is weakening in strength. In this situation, the trader can choose to enter into a sell position. However, the stock market is unpredictable and it will fluctuate unexpectedly. Hence, it will be better to hold the stock for now. Based on the stock chart of PETRONAS Gas Bhd: Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625 Source: Trading View of PETRONAS GAS BHD
Target Price: 16.50 (MYR) Stop Loss: RM16.625 PETRONAS GAS BHD Utilities 2.3 PRICE FORECAST (SHORT-TERM PERSPECTIVES) Analyst: Adorie Sabinus Report Date: 01 / 07/ 2022 Based on the technical analysis indicators I used to to analyse the future stock price movement of PETRONAS Gas Bhd, each of the indicator used has a same and different results but are viewed in a very different ways. The technical analysis indicator that I used is Support and Resistance, Volume Analysis, Inverted Hammer candlestick, Bullish Rectangle, Bollinger Points (BB), Rate of Change (ROC) and Relative Strength Index (RSI). To summarize, there are seven technical indicator that I used to analyse PETRONAS Gas Bhd stock price where four of the technical indicator shows a selling signal and three indicator that shows buying signal as shown below:- TYPE OF TECHNICAL INDICATORS BUY/SELL SIGNAL Support & Resistance SELL Volume Analysis Rate of Change (ROC) Bollinger Bands (BB) Bullish Rectangle Inverted Hammer Relative Strength Index (RSI) SELL BUY BUY SELL BUY SELL = BUY (3) ; SELL (4) Based on the cumulative sentiments of Petronas Gas Bhd's stock either to Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Sell or Strong Sell, we could see that the selling signal is more than buying signal. This might indicates that the stock price of PGB will decline as most of the indicator that I use for my technical analysis shows that downtrend will be formed. Hence, as a traders I will enter into a short position (Sell) at the current price of RM16.50 with a stop loss of RM16.625 and profit target of RM16.165.