Megatrends for Urbanisation of Greater Bangkok-compressed

MEGATRENDS
FOR URBANISATION OF

Greater Bangkok

1

CONTENTS 4
Introduction 6
The megatrends 28
Implications 30
What now? 32
Trends 44
Bibliography

2

© Getty images

FutureTales Lab Arup About the cover

MQDC founded FutureTales Working in more than 140 A kaleidoscopic treatment
Lab (FTL) in 2020 as a countries, Arup has over has been applied to the
research centre to develop 15,000, designers, engineers imagery throughout the
future living solutions for and consultants delivering document, reflecting
Thailand and the world. innovative projects with the multitude of
creativity and passion. possibilities for the future
In line with the corporate of Greater Bangkok.
ethos, FTL believes Arup Foresight is a
that every living being multi-disciplinary team of
on Earth deserves a consultants and designers
good quality of life. that can help our clients
understand change, identify
www.futuretaleslab.com emerging opportunities and
future-proof their business.

www.arup.com

3

Introduction

This report describes megatrends shaping the future of urbanisation in Greater
Bangkok, and forms part of a research collaboration between FutureTales Lab
and Arup Foresight and Innovation. Collaboration between the two organisations
emerged from a shared mission to support the transition to ecologically
sustainable, liveable and resilient cities in Thailand and Southeast Asia.

50% 10.5m

urbanised bustling megacity

Over the past few decades, Thailand has shifted from mostly rural
(under 30% urbanised) to over 50% urbanised today.1 During this time,
Bangkok’s population has doubled to become a bustling megacity of
over 10.5m people.2 Rapid urbanisation like this tends to be haphazard,
causing social and environmental costs and vulnerabilities.

COVID-19 provides a stark reminder of how vulnerable cities and their
citizens can be. This crisis comes at a time of great global transformation.
Climate change and biodiversity loss are pressing concerns.

Technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution are booming.
Energy systems are transitioning to renewables and transportation
is electrifying. Social media is opening new horizons for social
connection and manipulation, while online platform businesses
are bringing customers and service providers closer together.

100-150km The present research aims to explore drivers of change
and different visions for how Bangkok and nearby
towns and cities could evolve to support important
environmental, social and economic objectives.

This research defines Greater Bangkok as the Bangkok
Metropolitan Region and adjacent urban and economic
development areas within daily commuting distance
(100-150km) of central Bangkok, such as the Eastern
Economic Corridor.

Beyond the examination of megatrends, the research will
develop future scenarios for Greater Bangkok. Scenarios are
evidence-based stories about the future used by leading
governments and corporations to inform decision-making
and strategy.

4

How might the future of urbanisation
look over the next 30 years?
How will science and technology be applied
to deliver a robust, sustainable, intelligent,
responsive and resilient quality of living?
How will the design of cities create a
high quality of living and wellbeing for
the people of Greater Bangkok?

5

The megatrends

Seven megatrends are shaping the future of urbanisation
in Greater Bangkok.

Megatrends are powerful VALUES
forces for change occurring
at the intersection of high Social • Technological • Economical • Environmental • Political
impact trends from across
social, technological, Megatrends form out of the THE MEGATRENDS METHOD
environmental, economic interplay of trends across
and political domains. domains to tell a ‘big picture’ Over 80 trends were identified
Trends like population story about how these forces through a horizon scanning
growth and ageing are might combine and trigger process, and assessed in
patterns of change that can major shifts in urban planning terms of supporting evidence
be observed over time and and development. As such, and relevance to urbanisation.
verified with facts and data. some trends may factor into
more than one megatrend. Trends were then prioritised
For this research project, according to their impact on
the megatrends analysis What distinguishes each the future of urbanisation.
also includes critical themes megatrend is the unique
within the social domain combination of trends, which This process led to a
relating to values, which is why these megatrends short-list of 30 trends, five
highlights important cultural are depicted as overlapping for each ‘STEEPV’ category.
principles that will shape petals on the opposite page. These are described at
the Thai response to global the end of the report.
change in the urban age. The magnitude and patterns
of megatrends offer clear Megatrends were then
Some cultural values will signals for decision-makers developed from workshop
inevitably change with urban in the short to medium term discussions with project
and economic development, and clues about potential new stakeholders regarding
while others may not. risks and opportunities for linkages and interactions
the medium to longer term. across these 30 trends.

These vast narratives of Key themes and impacts
change, built upon solid arising from this process
evidence, can help decision informed the creation of
makers comprehend the the seven megatrends.
emerging context for Greater Megatrend descriptions are
Bangkok as it continues to structured around important
expand and attract new outcome areas for urban
people, investment and planning and development.
fresh visions for the future.

6

Wise Wellbeing for all
nation Data

Waste dominance
to jobs Village
harmony
Platform
transparency Health
holidays

7

OUTCOMES FROM LIVE WORK
URBAN PLANNING
AND DEVELOPMENT Our lifestyle, where we The types of jobs we
live and any related issues perform, working
Each megatrend will shape that impact liveability conditions and new skills
our wellbeing and that of
natural and built systems.

PLAY LEARN

The ways we stay active Lifelong learning as well
in urban spaces and as new ways of learning
participate in recreation and education access

MOVE SUSTAIN

People’s ability to The capability of an
move through urban urban area to sustain
areas via active, public people on individual and
or private modes community levels

NATURE & BIODIVERSITY INFRASTRUCTURE

The health of ecosystems All built structures and the
and how they relate to resources that are used to
the built environment create and support them

8

High levels of liveability are Sustain
achieved when human, built Live
and ecological systems work
together harmoniously. Work
Learn
Nature and
biodiversity Play

Infrastructure
Move

9

Urbanisation
Transforming new and existing
urban areas to attract people
and meet the future needs of
communities and the environment.

10

11

© Arup

MEGATRENDS

Wellbeing for all

Growing environmental and human health problems of the rapidly
growing city are weighing heavily on Bangkok citizens. Promotion
of health and wellness by influencers and the Thai Government is
prompting many Thais to re-evaluate what they desire from modern
life. More are looking to rebalance and support the health of their
family and community and of the surrounding environment.

COMPONENT TRENDS CHALLENGE OPPORTUNITY

See Trends section for more detail Linked human and Pro-environmental and
environmental health human health values
Ageing population problems in big cities are converging

SOCIAL Known avoidable A global survey of over
environmental risks, including 15,000 consumers revealed
Left behind children air pollution, cause roughly that environmental and
one quarter of all deaths and health-related issues were
SOCIAL disease burden worldwide, ranked number 1 and 2
accounting for at least 13 concerns respectively.
Booming health-tech million deaths per annum.3 And these are seen as
linked with three in five
TECHNOLOGICAL believing that their health is
already being impacted by
Increased air pollution environmental problems.4

ENVIRONMENTAL This sentiment was echoed
in a recent Thai survey of
Waste everywhere over 1,000 undergraduate
students, 92% of whom
ENVIRONMENTAL believed that all life is precious
and worth preserving.5.
Biodiversity loss

ENVIRONMENTAL

Focus on health
and wellbeing

VALUES

Valuing ecosystems

VALUES

Family values

VALUES

Collectivism

VALUES

12

© Getty Images © Getty images

There is demand for Nature and biodiversity are In line with their goals for
residential development that invited into developments health and wellbeing, Thai
allows Thai people to live with with urban greening and people demand sustainable
multiple generations in close biodiversity corridors. living. They live within their
proximity so that they can Developments embrace green means by producing much
enjoy the benefits of family. roofs and walls, bioswales, of their food onsite in local
People want to work from, or permeable pavements and community gardens and use
close to, home and prioritise community food producing power from locally owned
work-life balance. Mental and gardens. Collectively, people community solar farms. Waste
physical wellbeing for all is in the community tend is reduced by applying circular
of utmost importance and gardens and forests to make economy principles such as
compromises such as low air sure they are maintained the sharing economy and
quality or separation from and vibrant. Environmental bans on single use products.
family are not accepted. degradation is remediated
through regenerative design.

13

MEGATRENDS

Wise nation

Thais are living longer and enjoying more enriched lives.
Lifelong learning and a high value on health and wellbeing
are boosting quality of life outcomes. Older generations are
choosing to remain in the workforce and share their knowledge
and experiences with the young. Traditional philosophy
about mind-body-spirit balance is central to Thai society.

COMPONENT TRENDS

See Trends section for more detail

Ageing population

SOCIAL

Lifelong learning

SOCIAL

Smart machines are coming

TECHNOLOGICAL

Renaissance of mass transit

TECHNOLOGICAL

Booming health-tech

TECHNOLOGICAL

Advancing CHALLENGE OPPORTUNITY
knowledge economy
High economic costs of an Older workers can help lift
ECONOMIC ageing population team work and pass on their
experience to the young
Family values The impact of ageing could
reduce average growth rates Over half of the Thai
VALUES for some Asian countries. population is projected to be
Thailand’s average annual over the age of 60 by 2050.
Focus on health and wellbeing GDP growth could potentially Life expectancy is projected
drag down 0.75% over the to continue to increase to
VALUES next 3 decades.6 72.6 (male) and 78.1 (female)
by 2025.8
Thailand’s healthcare
expenditure for the elderly is Research shows that older
projected to increase fourfold workers outperform younger
between 2019 and 2022.7 workers on soft skills (eg
social and management
skills, loyalty etc.) and that
experience, expertise,
practical and tacit knowledge
improve with age.9

14

© Getty images © Getty images

High speed internet Lifelong learning brings Intelligent mobility has
supports smart services communities together. played an important role in
and healthcare in Thailand Traditional wisdom is elevated connecting communities.
allowing them to be at the with new technologies and Suitable low emissions
forefront of many high tech data making Thailand a smart transport options have
and knowledge industries. and culturally rich and diverse been made available for all
society. Cross generational ages and abilities. These are
Robotic assistants and learning has been enabled connected to allow for all
exosuits help older people through developments that people to feel comfortable
continue their careers allow generations to live travelling with these modes.
without injuries. together and combine state Active mobility is encouraged
of the art community facilities and embraced for exercise.
for all to share and learn.

15

MEGATRENDS

Data dominance

The internet of things has brought more and more urban
systems under the control of large tech companies. Too often
these companies wield strong data network effects and closed
ecosystems that shut out new entrants and local start-ups.
Increasingly interconnected people and things pose new privacy
and security risks.

COMPONENT TRENDS CHALLENGE OPPORTUNITY

See Trends section for more detail A few ‘tech giants’ Data smart cities can
controlling more data and enhance quality of
Adaptive design physical resources. life outcomes.

TECHNOLOGICAL Seven of the top 10 companies Global consultancy
globally by market cap are McKinsey and Co13 estimates
Smart machines are coming tech companies.10 Seven of the smart city applications in
top 10 R&D spenders are tech Southeast Asia can:
TECHNOLOGICAL companies too, and the tech
sector spends more on R&D • Cut 260-270 Kilotons
Smart cities than any other sector.11 of emissions

TECHNOLOGICAL Tech companies are pushing • Avoid 5,000
into city-related infrastructure premature deaths
Cybersecurity risk and services. Apple and
Alphabet (which owns • Create 1.2-1.5m new jobs
TECHNOLOGICAL Google) aspire to be mobility
companies. Alphabet also • Deliver $9-16b in cost of
Centralisation and inequity launched Sidewalk Labs in living savings
2015 as an urban innovation
ECONOMIC organisation to develop data • Save 6-8m years of
driven cities. commute time
Global digital economy
Leveraging expansive $9-16b
ECONOMIC datasets, Sidewalk uses its
digital tools to design spaces cost of living savings
Protest movements tailored to those who reside
within them. Privacy groups
POLITICAL protested a Sidewalk Labs
project planned for Toronto,
Big urban data believing that its data-
gathering methods would
POLITICAL create a surveillance state.12

Regional tensions

POLITICAL

16

© Getty images © Getty images

The ways in which Thai There is a large gap between Urban data is now integral
people live are monitored by skilled and unskilled workers to the city of Bangkok’s
larger corporations that have with strong income inequality operations. The energy, water
monopolised the collection between regional and urban and waste nexus is data
of personal data. Personal areas. Thai people are driven to optimise inputs
privacy and defence from presented with few options and minimise resource use
identity theft are very real other than to work for larger across all essential services.
concerns for individuals and corporations. Data analytics Shared residential spaces
families. The public are well skills are in high demand as ensure all Thai people can
informed that many aspects of the knowledge economy access shelter, but not
their lives are being quantified takes off leaving many necessarily thrive.
and those with concerns must workers behind who won’t
take careful steps to protect or can’t upskill.
their personal information.

17

MEGATRENDS

Platform transparency

Citizens increasingly demand more accountability for city planning
and development decisions. Government and community groups
have established open data platforms to share insights about city
performance. Abundance of data and strong values around social
inclusion are driving high expectations for planning outcomes.
Tech-enabled citizens scrutinise every decision.

COMPONENT TRENDS

See Trends section for more detail

Adaptive design

TECHNOLOGICAL

Lifelong learning

SOCIAL

Smart machines are coming

TECHNOLOGICAL

Smart cities

TECHNOLOGICAL

Advancing CHALLENGE OPPORTUNITY
knowledge economy
Online revelations of Digital infrastructure can
ECONOMIC ineffective governance promote public education
and corruption is fuelling and engagement
Big urban data protests and civil unrest
Thailand’s ranking on the
POLITICAL Social unrest and civil protests Network Readiness Index
are on the rise globally – has been steadily rising
Government transparency mass protests rose by an over the past few years –
average of 11.5% pa between to 56 in 2019, up from 67 in
POLITICAL 2009 and 2019. While local 2015. Penetration of fixed
context differs, there’s a broadband subscriptions,
Inclusive design common theme of ineffective high tech exports and use of
governance and corruption.14 social media platforms are
VALUES key strengths.15,16

Collectivism The number of internet users
in Thailand increased by
VALUES 1 million (+2%) between 2019
and 2020. The number of
18 social media users increased
by 2.3 million (+4.7%) in the
same period.17

© Getty images © Getty images

Those residing in Greater Thai people are becoming There is elevated
Bangkok are well informed better equipped to contribute accountability for how
citizens. Many community to the new economy. infrastructure is planned.
groups and advocates will Upskilling is common across Stakeholders play an integral
speak up for the masses to all sectors as the data role in determining planning
ensure policy and planning services industry grows outcomes and contribute
are tailored to the needs along with education to all stages of the process.
of people. Thai people are and specialised services. A philosophy of ‘design
willing to protest in large Abundant data on urban for all’ is applied in how
numbers if their voice planning and development infrastructure is developed
are not heard. This has has allowed communities to resulting in affordable housing
resulted in a focus on urban voice their opinions on how and multi-use commercial
development for liveability planning decisions are made spaces and public areas.
and broader accessibility. and policy is developed.

19

MEGATRENDS

Health holidays

Thailand has become one of the world’s top destinations for
retirees and health tourists seeking affordable cutting edge
healthcare. Many foreign visitors are also attracted to Thailand’s
eco-wellbeing industry, which promotes natural health modalities
and immersive nature-based experiences.

COMPONENT TRENDS

See Trends section for more detail

Ageing population

SOCIAL

Immigration

SOCIAL

Booming health-tech

TECHNOLOGICAL

Dependence on tourism

ECONOMIC

Focus on health and wellbeing

VALUES

Valuing ecosystems CHALLENGE OPPORTUNITY

VALUES Heavy reliance on tourism Development of
during a time of global higher paid jobs
20 economic volatility
Thailand is experiencing a
Thailand has previously been trend of rising immigration for
reliant on foreign direct high skilled work. In 2014-17,
investment (FDI). FDI rapidly the number of skilled worker
increased between 1980 abd migrants in Thailand increased
2012. However, it has been from 127,928 to 136,542.20
decreasing since 2013.18
As the economy evolves
The international tourism further into the digital and
sector is a significant information economies, there
contributor to Thailand’s GDP. will be growing opportunities
The tourism sector alone for higher skilled work and
contributed 21.6% of Thailand’s greater income for those with
GDP in 2018. This increased the right skillsets.
from under 11.8% in 1995.19

Overreliance on certain
sectors of the Thai economy
will lessen resilience to
global shocks.

© Getty images © Getty images

The tourism economy of The Thailand Government Eco-tourism resorts and
Thailand has become one of identified the need immersive nature experiences
its most differentiated and for public spaces to solidify are some of the many
successful sectors. A focus the country’s identity as specialised experiences
on high-end tourism has seen a leading health focused offered by Thailand.
Greater Bangkok become lifestyle provider. Environmentally conscious
renowned for its healthcare tourists see Greater Bangkok
offerings. Thai workers Large open spaces with and greater Thailand as
are upskilled in providing parks promote fitness a destination where they
specialised care for retirees as activities and healthy lifestyles can experience nature in
well as high quality medical for all Bangkok citizens. a way that is sustainable
practitioners who can offer Abandoned buildings have and contributes to the
affordable treatments been re-purposed into preservation of biodiversity.
to tourists. ‘vertical recreation zones’
in densely populated areas.
The tourism boom has seen an 21
increase in leisure services and
retreat destinations for those
looking for an escape from the
urban jungle.

MEGATRENDS

Waste to jobs

The growing waste problem has crippled ecosystems. Yet the
crisis has presented opportunities for new circular economy jobs
among the rural poor who have flooded Bangkok and surrounding
cities. Tech automation has gripped many industries. Many seek
new knowledge jobs in the big city but education gaps mean they
can only access low paid work in waste clean up and handling.

COMPONENT TRENDS CHALLENGE OPPORTUNITY

See Trends section for more detail High pollution Create new circular
damageing natural assets economy and jobs
Immigration
By 2025, it is projected that The focus of many Asian
SOCIAL Thailand will be responsible countries is on achieving
for 3.16% of the world’s adequate disposal, but a
Smart machines are coming mismanaged plastics, ranking third of Asian countries
it as the 6th most plastic legislatively encourage
TECHNOLOGICAL polluting nation. job creation through the
application of measures
Smarter cities East Asia, the Pacific and that are higher up the waste
South Asia were responsible management hierarchy.22
TECHNOLOGICAL for 71% of mismanaged
plastics in 2010.21 The Economic Research
Centralisation and inequality Institute for ASEAN and East
The issue of plastic pollution is Asia found that the adoption
ECONOMIC likely to increase substantially of circular economy principles
as Thailand urbanises could lead to economic
Waste everywhere further. Circular design growth of US$324b and
principles and maintaining create over 1.5 million jobs
ENVIRONMENTAL materials high on the waste in Asian cities by 2042.23
hierarchy will be critical when
designing and developing the The opportunities of the
urban environment. circular economy for
jobs and innovation are
significant for Thailand.
Plastic reuse and recycling
could shift the environmental
degradation currently being
experienced in Thailand.

22

© Getty images © Getty images

A significant portion of Unemployment is at an all Thai people are living
Thailand’s population live time low of 0.2%. The Thai more sustainably due to
on the fringes of Bangkok government has invested efficient use of resources
and other urban areas in into circular economy jobs and advancements in the
impoverished shanty towns. and start-ups where all waste circular economy. Thailand
The Thai government saw the is sorted and prioritised for imports waste materials
opportunity to provide work reuse and then recycling into from nearby countries to
for these citizens as waste long life products. Labourers provide more work to those
collectors and sorters. and farmers have been the employed by the government
worst hit by automation, in the circular economy.
with many forced to take up
positions as waste sorters.

23

MEGATRENDS

Village harmony

Ageing Thais are struggling with rising living and healthcare
costs, and becoming more concerned about ‘big city’ problems.
Affordable high speed rail and aerial transport have made it easy
for people to resettle outside the city while maintaining access
to jobs in booming services industries. More and more Thais are
seeking the peaceful village life, putting a higher value on their
health and environmental restoration.

COMPONENT TRENDS CHALLENGE OPPORTUNITY

See Trends section for more detail Poor liveability outcomes More spatially distributed
associated with megacities urban and economic
Ageing population development that delivers
The Economist Intelligence higher quality of life
SOCIAL Unit ranked three Australian
cities in the top seven A recent study of the
Renaissance in mass transit most liveable cities in 2016 relationship between
(Melbourne, Adelaide economic and urban
TECHNOLOGICAL and Perth). According development show two
to its analysis, this is distinct phases with very
Advancing knowledge partially due their smaller different wellbeing prospects
economy size and low density. for rural vs. urban populations.

ECONOMIC Their relatively low During phase A (lower levels
population densities and of economic development)
Centralisation and inequality high proportions of green urban areas provide their
space make these cities populations with a greater
ECONOMIC highly liveable. The study sense of wellbeing, while
also found that smaller cities those in rural areas experience
Stronger local economy have a greater perception less wellbeing. As economies
of safety and lower fears of develop and enter phase
ECONOMIC terrorism and crime threats.24 B, the wellbeing of urban
residents decreases while it
Air pollution Excessive concentration and increases for those living in
rapid urban development rural areas.26
ENVIRONMENTAL accentuate health problems.
Air pollution increases with Advancements in urban to
Climate change density. This is most evident rural long distance transport
in Asia, which accounts will allow for distributed
ENVIRONMENTAL for half the world’s most economic development that
air polluted cities.25 can provide greater wellbeing
Rising tides with less congestion.
The way large cities such
ENVIRONMENTAL as Bangkok are urbanised
will need to be carefully
Desire for decentralisation considered. The detrimental
impact of megacities on health
POLITICAL and wellbeing is significant if
not managed appropriately
Focus on health by urban planners.
and wellbeing

VALUES

Valuing ecosystems

VALUES

Collectivism

VALUES

24

© Getty images © Getty images

Communities are strongly To address the transport High value is placed on
connected socially. The needs of urban sprawl individual health and
greater access to space in and suburban living, cheap rail environmental restoration by
these suburban areas allows and aerial transport provide these suburban communities.
the community to keep active. access to work in the city of Thai people are seeking a
Families will often gather Bangkok. Public transport return to more traditional
together visiting each other’s and other shared mobility village life. Communities work
villages and sharing meals. solutions thrive within these together to minimise waste
satellite communities. and efficiently use resources.
Off-grid power solutions
are often shared between
families and can sustain
more remote communities.

25

“FutureTales Lab by MQDC
originated from this aim to
serve three core objectives:
Exchange knowledge and data;
Build cooperation, networks and
community participation through
engagement; Interpret changing
human behaviour and attitudes
to prepare for the future.”

Mr Malaisirirat, CEO, MQDC

26

27

© Arup

Implications

Great challenges demand greatness.
Get ready to ride the urban innovation wave!​

Industry and government A wave of urban Neighbourhood-scale
players in the urban experimentation and eco-districts have popped
planning and development innovation is building up all over Europe and North
system are uniquely globally. These initiatives America, while city-scale
placed to experiment go by various names, but counterparts are particularly
with new ways to respond each aims to apply new popular in East Asia,
to these megatrends. designs, tools, technologies, especially China, where strong
services, professional economic and population
Global change and disruption practices and business growth and rapid urbanisation
require a radical re-think of and governance models have ignited construction of
the urbanisation process. to new or re-developed massive greenfield sites into
urban spaces and assets. ​ entire new towns and cities.

Some experiments are With a growing need
small-scale and short-term to address pressing
adaptations, referred to as environmental problems,
tactical urbanism,27 such governments across Asia
as freeing up streets for are seeking new models
pedestrians, cyclists and of urbanisation that can
more green space, creating reconcile social, economic
community gardens on empty and environmental objectives.
plots or novel re-purposing
of disused buildings for While Asian eco-cities have
social housing and office delivered mixed results,
spaces for start-ups. development at this scale
presents opportunities
These initiatives can happen for fundamentally new
anywhere, and often in infrastructure and services
response to acute challenges to achieve ecologically
and opportunities like the sustainable objectives
present COVID-19 crisis.​
Innovation capacity of
At the other end of the these cities can also be
spectrum are larger and boosted through stronger
longer duration experiments public-private sector
at the precinct, district or partnerships and more
even city-scale, often labelled investment in urban research
eco-districts and eco-cities and development.28,29,30 ​
(or green cities), which aim to
accelerate progress towards
sustainability objectives. 

28

Some urban innovation Are you ready to deliver
initiatives at the precinct more rapid place-based
or city scale are exploring innovation at scale?
ways to effectively manage
the innovation process What futures do you think
to evaluate impact and we need to prepare for?
communicate lessons learnt
to a wider audience. Whose future do we need
to prepare for?
Urban living labs have
emerged globally to This urban century belongs to
integrate more formal change agents across sectors
research and development who can forge new ways
practices into real-world to address the challenges
urban environments. of our time, and establish
Living labs typically ‘pockets’ of transformation
promote multi-sector towards a future where
collaborations and efforts all people and life in all
to make research more its diversity can thrive.​
participatory with end users,
involving social learning and
knowledge sharing.

Co-creation with
communities is the mantra
of urban living labs so that
solutions to problems are
addressed with the user,
rather than just involving
the end-user in testing.31,32 ​

What these initiatives show is
that planners and developers
can take a lead role in the
innovation system. However,
it will take visionary leaders
to push through barriers and
shape urban development
projects into inspiring visions
of thriving future cities that
benefit people and planet. ​

29

What now?

These megatrends shaping the future of
urbanisation in Greater Bangkok are being
used to inform important discussions
with urban planners, developers and
decision-makers. ​

These discussions aim
to identify critical issues
and uncertainties that will
determine whether Bangkok
and surrounding urban
areas thrive over the coming
decades. We live in a time
of extraordinary change.
The future is not fixed.
Now is the time to come
together and shape the
future we want. ​
For more information about
getting involved, contact
FutureTales Lab.

30

Trends

smart renaissance in mass transit
tec
machines
global digital economy
are coming stroncgeenrktlrnoaolciaslwlaetecidoongnoeamineedcs ionneoqumityy dependence on tourism
smarter cities air pollution
waste everywhere
cybersecurity
agebionogmpinogpuhleaatlitohn-tech biodiversity loss
adaptive design risk hnological economi
lifelong learning climate change
social values environmental rising tides
c protest movements
immigration

bheeahlitnhdancvdahliuwldinerglelbenceoinsygstems politica
left inclusivecoldleescitigvinsm big urerbgaginoondvaaetlartnemnseionntstransparency
focus on family values desire for decentralisation

l

31

TRENDS

Social

AGEING POPULATION Wide adoption of work- Stronger migration policies
from-home practices by can help address the
The Thai population is office workers and ongoing economic stagnation Thailand
rapidly ageing, driven by economic uncertainty are is experiencing.
a combination of longer likely to drive strong demand
life spans, influx of retired for flexible living spaces Thailand alone accounts for
migrants and lower birth and conversion of disused half of all ASEAN migrants.
rates. By 2040, 17 million buildings into housing. These migrants have been
Thais will be 65 years or critical in filling skills gaps
older – more than a quarter of LIFELONG LEARNING particularly for the growing
the population.33 Thai knowledge economy.36
More adults globally are
More accessible transportation recognising the importance As an attractive place to live,
systems and urban and of lifelong learning. A global Thailand has an opportunity
building design will be survey of over 7,000 to import skilled labour to new
needed to support freedom people aged between 16 urban areas.
of movement and high quality and 70 found 88% believed
of life for older Thais. they needed to take more LEFT BEHIND CHILDREN
responsibility for learning
ADAPTIVE DESIGN and upskilling for their job.35 Low availability of job
opportunities outside of
Typical roles and functions Lifelong learners will Bangkok and high real estate
of a home are expanding boost skills, yet will require prices struggle to live well
to include space for work planners and developers outside Bangkok force young
and recreational activities, to consider ways in which parents to move to big cities
particularly in response to learning experiences can be for work, leaving their children
the COVID-19 pandemic. supported, such as outdoor behind. According to UNICEF,
Disused or under-utilised classrooms and home studies. more than one in five Thai
commercial buildings from children (or over 3 million)
the economic downturn can IMMIGRATION are left in the care of a single
be re-purposed to meet parent or their grandparents.37
affordable housing needs. Skilled and unskilled labour
provides a country with more If combined with good
Adaptive design and the reuse opportunity to progress public transport, urban and
of older structures and assets and grow culturally and economic development in
form an emerging trend for economically. Thailand has different regions of Thailand
Thai architects. Sustainability roughly 5 million migrant will help promote more
and heritage values are workers on record, many distributed employment and
becoming more recognised from neighbouring countries. decrease the time workers
by developers.34 Thailand relies heavily on spend away from families.
these workers.

32

88%

of people across the
globe believe they
need to take more
responsibility for
learning and upskilling

50%

of all ASEAN migrants
are accounted for by
Thailand alone

20%

of Thai children
are left in the care
of a single parent
or grandparents

33

© Getty images

TRENDS

Technological

RENAISSANCE IN The automation market More than 35% of businesses

MASS TRANSIT in Thailand is expected in Thailand have have a

Governments globally are to be valued at US$12 significant cyber breach
investing heavily in public billion by 2023.39 costing US$1m or more in
transport systems. Emerging damages. Investment in
innovations are part of the Urban development will need cybersecurity across Thailand
boom, with new mass transit to couple with job attraction has reached US$63 million
systems under development, strategies, particularly in following the introduction of
including Hyperloop and aerial emerging high value service the Cybersecurity Act and
transport concepts such as and tech sectors. Personal Data protection Act.41

vertical take-off and landing. SMARTER CITIES Cybersecurity risks could

The Bangkok Gold Line Digital tech and data are determine the extent of
automated rail system is a first becoming more prominent smart city developments in
of its kind for Thailand and will in manageing urban the region.
connect other mass transit infrastructure and services.
systems. This system opened BOOMING HEALTH-TECH
in late 2020 with plans for Reduced cost, environmental
a second phase opening impact and increased access 6G integration into healthcare
in 2023.38 are key benefits. will provide unprecedented
communication and support
More distributed urban The 2017 Thailand 4.0 the use of AI and robotics for
development may be possible Government initiative is remote service delivery.
as cutting edge mass transit targeting 100 smart cities
systems mature. across Thailand within Thailand’s medical device
20 years. This initiative is market is forecast to grow by
SMART MACHINES driven through a combination 8-10% by 2021. Thai medical
ARE COMING of lined ministries (not only trade has increased steadily
Digital Economy Promotion since 2013, growing by
Jobs at risk will increase over Agency). The public sector over 20% in 2013-19. The
the next 15 years, with low has already dedicated US$11m country has more than
skill workers most affected. to begin building a digital 1,400 hospitals which bring
Almost half of low skill jobs economy facilitated by in close to to US$600m
could be at risk by the mid- smart cities.40 annually from international
2030s. Cities are where most visitors, making Thailand
of the impacts of automation CYBERSECURITY RISK the fifth largest medical
will be felt. tourism market.42
The increasingly interconnected

A survey of 270 Thailand world of people and things Quality healthcare
brings new vulnerabilities. at-a-distance can reduce
companies found over one Geopolitics is an additional the need for Thais to
factor in ASEAN with tech travel to large cities like
third will be increasing giants from superpowers Bangkok for specialist care
China and the US representing and procedures.
investment on robotics and state interests.

automation by at least 5%

34 to increase productivity
and worker efficiency.

$11m

already invested by
Thailand public sector
for the digital economy
US dollars

35%

of Thai businesses’
have experienced
a cyber breach
costing more than
US$1m in damages

5th

largest medical
tourism market
globally

35

© Getty images

TRENDS

Economic

GLOBAL DIGITAL ECONOMY High unemployment is a Urban development outside
key risk. of Bangkok will require
More businesses are strong strategies to underpin
transitioning online and The Thai Government has high value industry and
acquiring customers developed digital economy job creation.
through P2P and social policy that aims to increase
media platforms. the knowledge economy STRONGER LOCAL
to 50% of the nation’s ECONOMIES
Cashless payments GDP and focuses on local
and cryptocurrencies solutions for digital and Local economies in
are growing globally. information services.44 neighbourhoods or
These transformations help small suburbs in greater
increase efficiency and The demand for higher Bangkok are supported
keep pace with partners skilled workers will grow as by a community desire
and/or competitors. Yet cities advance economically, for prosperity. Competing
Thailand is still very much growing new service sector businesses often coexist
a “cash” society, where industries and jobs. peacefully due to a desire for
paper money is necessary mutual success.
in most of the country due CENTRALISATION
to cultural resistance and AND INEQUALITY Small-to-medium enterprises
insufficient infrastructure. in Thailand contribute 42%
Concentration of industries in of GDP and employ 78%
The Thai digital market has one city or area provides little of the working population.
developed quickly with a flexibility for workers looking Entrepreneurs are shifting
focus on e-commerce and to move. While this increases their focus to technology
data centres. E-commerce competition between to grown and sustain
spending rose 18.2% annually companies, it stagnates their businesses.46
between 2016 and 2020.43 the growth.
DEPENDENCE ON TOURISM
Future urban development Many skilled workers have
should prioritise digital little option than to live in Tourism has become
infrastructure to enable new Bangkok, despite having a Thailand’s biggest export.
tech and services industries desire to live in their home
to flourish. province or somewhere else. In the 10 years to 2018,
the contribution of tourism to
ADVANCING Progress that was made in Thailand’s GDP increased from
reducing poverty in Thailand 5.3% to 12.5%; visitor numbers
KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY is backtracking as the grew from 14 million to 38
economy slows. In 2015-18 million, heavily driven by the
More technology and poverty grew from 7.2% to Chinese market.47
automation are opening up 9.8%. The Thai economy has
new horizons in knowledge also been one of the slowest Strong tourism numbers
intensive work. Businesses in SEA with only 2.7% growth promote city shaping
and governments must in Q4 2019.45 infrastructure investments
embrace the opportunity (airports, fast trains,
36 or risk being left behind. hotels etc), but can also be
vulnerable to economic cycles.

18.2%

annual increase on
e-commerce spending
between 2016 and 2020

50%

of the nation’s GDP
aims to come from the
knowledge economy

78%

of the working population
are employed by SMEs and
contribute to 42% of GDP

37

© Getty images

TRENDS

Environmental

AIR POLLUTION Urban developments losses. Resilience is emerging

Air pollution is the leading can embrace the circular as a core competency
cause of respiratory diseases economy by re-using for cities.
in Southeast Asian children; existing infrastructure and
additionally, about one-third buildings, designing to The number of disasters
of heart disease, strokes and enable the sharing economy caused by heatwaves is
lung cancer are caused by or developing large-scale projected to double across
air pollution. waste collection and all nations between 2014 and
processing facilities. 2050. This is then anticipated
Some 92% of people in to more than triple between
Southeast Asia are exposed BIODIVERSITY LOSS 2050 and 2100.51

to levels of air pollution that Maintaining biodiversity is Extreme weather will require
are considered a serious important for the future cities to develop resilient
health risk. It is projected of Bangkok and broader infrastructure, raise building
that population-weighted Thailand as their natural standards and develop spatial
exposure to air pollution in environment provides planning policies to mitigate
Southeast Asia will grow by ecosystem services and future losses.
30% by 2030.48 attracts international tourism

Serious human health and trade. RISING TIDES
impacts are likely to drive
greater public concern about UNESCO Bangkok has A growing number of people
pollution. Future urban policy launched an event to take live in or near vulnerable
agendas are likely to reflect action in restoring mangrove coastal, river and delta
these concerns with higher air ecosystems that play a critical regions, increasing flood risk
quality standards. role in preserving biodiversity due to climate change and
and sustaining other sea-level rise.

WASTE EVERYWHERE ecosystems. The mangrove Based on the projected
systems are important not sea-level rise for 2050,
The trends of increasing just for biodiversity but also land that accommodates
consumption and the protection of people and over 300 million people will
convenience lifestyles urban areas from flooding.50 fall below the elevation of an
are resulting in a growing average annual flood event.
waste stream in Thailand. Embracing biodiversity and Thailand is one of the top
developing urban areas six nations that will have the
Thailand generates more than alongside ecosystems most people impacted by
two million tonnes of plastic will be essential to this flooding.52
waste annually. Thailand is maintain Thailand’s

ranked the 6th most plastic natural environment. Urban planning and
polluting country in the world. governance processes
With Thailand having many CLIMATE CHANGE will increasingly factor in
coastal zones, much plastic Climate change is driving up vulnerability and make hard
waste is lost into the ocean.49 the frequency and intensity of decisions about retreat
natural disasters and damage and resettlement.
38

92%

of people in Southeast
Asia are exposed to
significant air pollution

6th

most plastic
polluting country
in the world

X2

Heatwaves are expected to
double across all nations
between 2014 and 2050

39

© Getty images

TRENDS

Political

PROTEST MOVEMENTS Several Thai government GOVERNMENT

Citizens are demanding initiatives such as Thailand 4.0 TRANSPARENCY
greater accountability
and Smart City and Industry Real estate transparency

and transparency from 4.0 have a focus on increasing covers a range of factors
their governments. the number of IoT devices.54
from governance and

The Asia Pacific region, Mobility data incorporates regulation to sustainability
including Thailand, some level of tracking, which transparency. Thailand
has struggled to make can help cities manage has been progressively
progress on corruption transport infrastructure more improving in transparency
over the past few years. efficiently and address public due to regulatory changes.
health crises such as COVID-19.
Recent protests in Thailand The Thai people have
have seen tens of thousands However, such initiatives recently pushed for increased
gather to push for a reform can risk becoming intrusive government transparency as
of the monarchy. The Thai surveillance if not governed the government announced a
monarchy is a sensitive topic effectively and transparently. US$61 billion COVID-19 fund to
– it’s a criminal offence to support impacted industries.56
criticise the monarchy.53 REGIONAL TENSIONS
Legislative requirements and
As the region grapples Political relationships across social demand will continue
with 21st century global Southeast Asia and with other to drive more transparency
change on multiple fronts nations affect Thailand. about urban developments.
cities will provide important
gathering spaces for public Its central location in the region DESIRE FOR
events including protest. creates a relationship between DECENTRALISATION
international infrastructure
BIG URBAN DATA development and international Thailand’s trend towards
politics, among Southeast further decentralisation
Digital data mapping can be Asian countries. is driven by internal and
used to visualise movement external factors. The internal
data within cities. One example Recent territorial and maritime democratisation of Thailand
is a route planning app that disputes have increased is the main driver, while
is visualising transport data uncertainty and will likely slow geopolitics is having an
in multiple cities globally to economic co-operation for the external influence through
observe behavioural change next five years. A continuous economic impacts such as
resulting from COVID-19- simmering tension between the Asian currency crisis.57
related movement policies. China and the USA may call
SEA nations to take sides.55 The ways different levels
It is projected that there of government contribute
will be more than 75 billion Such regional tensions to policy and planning will
Internet of things (IoT) may undermine important influence the Thai urban
devices globally by 2025. infrastructure development landscape. Decentralisation
needed to link emerging policies will reduce inequalities

40 urban areas. between regions and support
sustainable urban growth.

>75b

Internet of things (IoT)
devices expected
globally by 2025

5next yrs

economic co-operation
likely to slow down
between Southeast
Asian countries

$61b

COVID-19 fund to support
impacted industries
US dollars

41

© Getty images

TRENDS

Values

FOCUS ON HEALTH as preferences move INCLUSIVE DESIGN

AND WELLBEING from ‘grey infrastructure’ Designing with people as the
to ‘green infrastructure’ focus is a growing trend in
There is growing interest in solutions for rainfall and global urban development.
integrating ancient knowledge flood management. Further It is being embraced by
systems to address benefits of ecosystems are Thailand as its population
problems with modernity. now being considered in ages and is further amplified
urban planning such as the by its family orientation
Thai people’s growing impact on property value, and respect for elders.
awareness of health carbon sequestration, water
behaviours is driving a shift filtration and recreation.59 The elderly population in
in personal and collective Thailand will exceed 20 million
wellbeing. Increasing Urban areas need to by 2050. Urban development
urbanisation is providing Thai incorporate and support will need to cater to those
people with greater access surrounding ecosystems with a disability and
to more health and lifestyle to maintain their critical diminished mobility to ensure
products and services.58 services and avoid long- critical infrastructure can be
term costs to human health accessed in the future.61
Human health problems and physical infrastructure.
in cities can stem from FAMILY VALUES
loneliness, too much COLLECTIVISM

lifestyle stress, pollution, According to recent surveys, The importance of family
poor sanitation and lack Thailand has a strong and respect for elders
of exposure to nature. collectivist orientation, are strong values for Thai
which means that individuals people. These values have
Future urban planning and prioritise commitment been maintained even as
design will need to explore to family or wider social younger generations migrate
strategies for decreasing group rather than looking towards urban environments.
the negative health impacts after themselves. However, household size
of hectic urban living. is shrinking, the fertility

VALUING ECOSYSTEMS Hofestede Insights identified rate is falling and the
Thailand as highly collectivist. population is ageing.
Ecosystems provide many This manifests in the
essential services to cities, Thai people’s tendency The proportion of one-person
such as temperature to maintain strong and households increased from
regulation, resilience to close relationships with 6% to 14% between 1987
environmental shocks, their extended family. Thai and 2013. This predominantly
biodiversity, recreation society fosters relationships occurred in urban areas.62
and pollution reduction. where everyone takes
responsibility for each other.60 Smaller households and
Ecosystems services are rural-urban migration may
being increasingly valued by Collectivist values shape the weaken family ties.
Thai people and developers

42 structure of households and
impact housing design.

>green grey

Ecosystems services are
being increasingly valued by
Thai people and developers

>20m

elderly population
in Thailand expected
by 2050

14%

of households became
one-person only by 2013

43

© Getty images

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46 Creative Economy Agency
(Public Organisation)

Geo-Informatics and Space
Technology Development
Agency (GISTDA)

© Arup

48