HOT Master Plan 2022 UPDATE

Forecasts July 2022 Page 51 of 159 AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS Based on information obtained in the inventory analysis, the following factors and assumptions have been incorporated into the HOT forecasts of aviation demand: National and local economies will continue to recover from the recent recession and grow throughout the forecast period. Aviation activity at HOT will generally reflect the national aviation industry – the FAA projects growth in all aspects of aviation. The Airport will continue air service development efforts aggressively to reduce leakage and obtain additional service and capacity. New scheduled passenger service with three daily non-stop flights linking HOT with DFW will influence passenger enplanements as service began in early 2017. Increasing enplanement demands will be accommodated through more frequent flight operations. Future operational levels are attributable to business needs and recreational interests associated with the horse racing industry. Future airport facilities will continue to accommodate a broad array of GA aircraft and remain flexible in serving commercial air carriers and business-type aircraft. An “unconstrained” forecast of aviation demand assumes facility improvements will be implemented to meet demand. Greater aircraft utilization resulting from airfield and terminal area improvements can be both directly and indirectly linked to economic development activity. FORECAST METHODOLOGIES Development of aviation forecasts involves analytical and judgmental assumptions to realize the highest level of forecast confidence. The GA demand forecasts are developed in accordance with national and regional trends, and in context with the inventory findings, including local socioeconomic trends. The forecasts developed here begin with baseline information from 2016 and 2017 as the first forecast year. National GA trends and forecasts, used to provide a baseline of growth rates, are provided by the FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2016-2036. These forecasts are unconstrained, indicating facilities will be developed as the need arises. Various forecast techniques are used to develop GA forecasts for HOT and could include: TREND ANALYSIS

Forecasts July 2022 Page 52 of 159 Trend analysis is the simplest and most familiar form of forecasting and is also one of the most widely used. Historical data is collected and used to forecast an estimate of the aviation demand element into future years. An assumption of this forecast method is that historical levels for aviation demands will continue and influence similar linear progressions on the future demand levels. Though this assumption seems broad in its application, it can serve as a reliable benchmark against other forecast methods. REGRESSION ANALYSIS The forecasts of aviation demand (the dependent variable) are projected based on one or more external indicators (the independent variables). Historical values for both the dependent and independent variables are analyzed to determine their relationships. Once defined, this relationship is used to project the dependent variable with a forecast or projection of the independent variable. In aviation forecasting, an example of the dependent variable is based aircraft. Population or median household income levels are commonly used independent variables that aid in the projection of aviation growth. MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS These aviation demand forecasts are developed based on a causal model technique in which independent variables statistically relate the relationship(s) between historical events and aviation demands. This forecast method typically uses an easily identifiable independent variable such as population, which has a high correlation on the indirect cause-and-effect relationship within certain segments of the GA industry. The market share often employs a static and dynamic variable relationship between community factors and GA trends that aids in predicting aviation growth based on forecast community indicators such as population. HOT COMMERCIAL AIRLINE PASSENGER FORECASTS As previously mentioned, HOT is an Essential Air Service (EAS) commercial airport categorized as a non-hub airport by the FAA. Non-hub primary commercial service airports account for less than 0.05 percent of domestic enplanements and have more than 10,000 enplanements. HOT has fewer than 10,000 enplanements and with returning commercial passenger service enplanement growth is expected to be positive both short- and long-term. To evaluate commercial service potential at HOT and the facilities necessary to properly accommodate present and future airline activity, two basic elements must be forecast: annual enplaned passengers and annual airline operations. Annual enplaned passengers are the most basic indicator of commercial passenger demand. The combination of enplanements and deplanements generally equals the total passengers using an airport. Annual enplanements are used by the FAA to determine various entitlement funding levels for commercial service airports. An “enplanement” refers to a passenger boarding a commercial flight and can be broken down into originating or connecting/transferring passengers. All passengers at HOT are expected to be originating passengers as they depart HOT for a destination or hub airport to connect/transfer to another flight. Connecting/transferring passengers are those who have departed from another

Forecasts July 2022 Page 53 of 159 location and are using the airport as an intermediate stop. These passengers may disembark their originating flight to wait in the terminal for their next flight, or they could simply remain on the aircraft at an intermediary stop as a through passenger. As presented earlier, a resource utilized in aviation demand forecasting is the annual FAA Aerospace Forecasts. The most recent available version is for Fiscal Years 2016-2036, published in March 2016. The FAA forecasts a variety of aviation demand indicators on an annual basis. In the most current edition, fiscal year 2014 is presented as the baseline, with 2015 showing as an estimate, and years 2016 through 2036 as projections. Many forecasting elements utilized in this analysis will consider the history and projections presented by the FAA in its annual forecast. FAA COMMERCIAL PASSENGER AIRLINE FORECASTS FAA Aerospace Forecasts provide significant background and reference data anticipated on a national level. U.S. commercial air carriers’ total domestic departures continued the negative trend that began in 2008, while available seat miles (ASMs), revenue passenger miles (RPMs), and enplanements all showed a rebound. These trends underlie the expanding size of aircraft and higher load factors being experienced by the industry. In 2015, the domestic load factor reached an historic high of 84.5 for commercial air carriers. In our slowly improving economic environment, industry capacity growth has been restrained (up 3.9 percent in 2015), after only a 2.3 percent increase in 2014. U.S. mainline carrier capacity was projected to grow 3.8 percent in 2016, while capacity for regional carriers was forecasted to remain static through 2016. Passenger demand growth is in line with capacity growth in 2016, with system RPMs forecast to grow 3.8 percent. Supported by a growing U.S. and world economy, year over year RPM growth is forecast to be 2.7 percent on average over the period from 2016‐2036. Over the same time period, system capacity growth averages 2.1 percent per year. System passengers are projected to increase an average of 2.0 percent a year, with mainline carriers growing at 2.0 percent a year, slightly higher than their regional counterparts (up 1.8 percent). By 2036, U.S. commercial air carriers are projected to fly 1.81 trillion ASMs and transport 1.24 billion enplaned passengers, for a total of 1.53 trillion passenger miles. Planes will remain crowded, with load factors projected to grow moderately during the early years of the forecast period, then tapering off during the mid-to-latter years to 84.7 percent in 2036 (up 1.3 points compared to the beginning of the forecast period in 2015). The FAA forecasts indicate that enplanements were forecasted to grow (up 4.2 percent) in 2016, following a 3.8 percent increase in 2015. Over the forecast period, domestic enplanements are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent, with mainline and regional carriers growing at the same rate. Figure 3-3 presents the annual historical and forecast enplanement totals for both large air carriers and commuter airlines in the U.S., as forecast by the FAA.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 54 of 159 FIGURE 3-3 U.S. AIR CARRIER PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS Source: FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2016-2036. Forecast years begin with 2016. COMMERCIAL AIRLINE PASSENGERS To evaluate commercial service potential at HOT and the facilities necessary to properly accommodate present and future airline activity, two basic elements must be forecast: annual enplaned passengers and annual airline operations. Annual enplaned passengers serve as the most basic indicator of demand for commercial passenger service activity. The combination of enplanements and deplanements generally equals the total passengers using an airport. The annual number of enplanements is the figure utilized by the FAA to determine various entitlement funding levels for commercial service airports. Annual airline operations at HOT will remain static unless enplanement forecasts and actual conditions warrant a need to increase operations or change aircraft type/size being used at HOT. As reported in the Inventory chapter, HOT is an EAS airport with a new entrant airline that began service in February 2017 with non-stop service to DFW. The current air carrier at HOT will provide three daily flights in nine-seat Cessna Caravans, which provides for a potential annual enplanement total of approximately 8,400. 3000 Historical 2500 1500 1000 500 U.S. Regional Domestic Enplanements U.S. Regional International Enplanements U.S. Mainline Domestic Enplanements U.S. Mainline International Enplanements U.S. Commercial Air Carrier Enplanements U.S. Commercial Air Carrier Enplanements PASSENGERS (IN MILLIONS) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036

Forecasts July 2022 Page 55 of 159 PASSENGER ENPLANEMENT SCENARIOS Forecasts of passenger enplanements are the driver for other commercial service activity forecasts and provide a basis for determining future facility requirements to accommodate passengers and airport visitors. Several forecasting sources and methods were evaluated as to their usefulness, reasonableness, and application to HOT. Just prior to Southern Airways beginning service to/from HOT, HOT had lost commercial passenger service, which limited enplanements to those on non-scheduled carrier service. Despite declining air carrier service at HOT, enplanements have seen a recent rebound from a low of less than 800 only six years ago. The addition of three daily flights six days per week will bring about a continued recovery of passenger enplanements at HOT and offers the potential for growth. Forecasts of passenger enplanements have been produced for various scenarios using the trendline/time series, regression analysis methodology, and market share analyses. TREND-LINE/TIME SERIES FORECASTS A variety of time‐series extrapolations were completed to analyze historical data to reflect future trends. Data from 2005 to the present was analyzed with multiple scenarios that predicted future passenger enplanements. During the past 11 years HOT enplanements have fluctuated from a high of nearly 3,900 in 2006 to a low of only 165 in 2009. Various factors in the local community and surrounding the air carrier service precipitated these wide swings in enplanements in a short time span. This includes the departure of Mesa Airways in 2008, the start-up of Seaport Airways in 2010, and the bankruptcy and closure of Seaport Airways in 2016. Southern Airways started service at HOT in 2017. Table 3-2 shows the historic enplanements at HOT. Applying the trend line from 2005 through 2016 resulted in an enplanement decline to around 700 by 2037 the end of the 20-year forecast period. Table 3-2a depicts two trend-line scenarios that resulted in positive enplanement growth at HOT. Recent trends from around the low in 2009 have been evaluated. From 2008 through 2015 enplanements are forecast to climb to nearly 10,600 enplanements while the trend-line from 2010 through 2015 indicate an even higher growth reaching over 11,500.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 56 of 159 TABLE 3-2 HOT HISTORIC PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS CALENDAR YEAR ENPLANEMENTS 1990 1,869 1991 2,836 1992 3,919 1993 3,999 1994 4,293 1995 3,957 1996 3,147 1997 2,990 1998 4,111 1999 2,610 2000 2,520 2001 2,530 2002 2,321 2003 2,898 2004 3,636 2005 3,183 2006 3,870 2007 3,465 2008 2,091 2009 0 2010 668 2011 1,112 2012 2,742 2013 2,741 2014 2,660 2015 3,005 2016 2,169 Source: Enplanement data for 1990-2016 from the FAA Terminal Area Forecast

Forecasts July 2022 Page 57 of 159 TABLE 3-2 TREND-LINE FORECASTS – AIR CARRIER ENPLANEMENTS MEMORIAL FIELD 2017* 2022 2027 2032 2037 TREND-LINE SERIES (05-15) 2,818 1,594 1,302 1,010 717 TREND-LINE SERIES (08-15) 2,818 5,434 7,155 8,876 10,597 TREDN-LINE SERIES (10-15) 2,818 5,807 7,723 9,639 11,555 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017 *2017 Enplanements Forecast figures updated to estimated actual enplanement figures based on Southern Airways data. REGRESSION ANALYSIS FORECASTS Several regression analyses were developed using a variety of aviation and socioeconomic factors to predict future trends. For regression analysis forecasts, it is critical to have a regression factor (R2 ) value above 0.95. This value represents a strong correlation between the variables used and provides a greater statistical reliability. Several variables were tested to include: Hot Springs population, Garland County Population, Regional Per Capita Income, and regional gross domestic product. Both the Hot Springs and Garland County population analyses resulted in strong “R2 ” value above 0.95. The population data used for these forecasts can be found in the Inventory Chapter. The two regression scenarios resulted in positive but extremely modest enplanement growth at HOT from 2,860 in 2016 to 3,044 by 2037. GROSS TRAVEL PROPENSITY FORECASTS There are varieties of local factors that affect the potential for passengers within an area to travel. A key statistic to consider is the relationship between an airport’s enplanements to the population area served. The ratio of enplanements to population is termed the Gross Travel Propensity (GTP). The GTP is predominantly impacted by the proximity of an airport to other regional airports with better service or “hub” airports. Regional airports with higher GTP ratios are located farther from hub airports in more remote areas. These airports generally have a service area that extends into adjacent, well‐populated regions or have some type of air service advantage that attracts more of those passengers that might otherwise choose to drive to a more distant hub airport. Generally, the higher the GTP, the more likely air travelers are to utilize the local airport for commercial service. A more detailed GTP history for HOT was examined by looking at both the City of Hot Springs and Garland County population bases. Based on Garland County population, the HOT GTP has fluctuated from a high of 0.04 in 2006 to a low of 0.008 in 2009. When compared to the City of Hot Springs population, HOT’s GTP shows stronger air travel tendencies but still fluctuates widely from a high of 0.10 in 2006 to a low of 0.004 in 2009. Since the low GTP in 2009 for both the City

Forecasts July 2022 Page 58 of 159 and County, the GTP has stabilized with the average for each of the last five years to be 0.08 and 0.03 respectively. Table 3-3 presents three enplanement projections based upon the GTP. The first projection represents a declining Garland County population that is reflected in the enplanement forecast throughout the forecast period, which results in 2,842 enplanements by 2037. Next, a constant ratio GTP projection maintaining 0.03 through the period yields 3,106 scheduled airline enplanements. This projection would require passenger demand to keep pace with that experienced in 2015. The final projection increases the GTP to recapture a level experienced as recently as 2006, which requires commitment to the newly introduced air service and recapturing some travelers that may be utilizing Little Rock National because of the added convenience of flying from HOT, free parking at HOT, and the EAS subsidized attractive ticket prices. This projection results in 4,243 enplanements by 2036. Each of these GTP forecasts used the population data referenced in the Inventory Chapter. 2018 FORECAST UPDATE Based on the increases in actual passenger traffic seen in 2017 and the first two quarters of 2018, it is clear that HOT is re-capturing some of the travelers that were previously utilizing Little Rock National Airport. According to Southern Airways records, HOT served a total of 5,209 passengers in 2017. Assuming half of total passengers are enplanements (e.g. persons boarding an aircraft at HOT), HOT had an estimated 2,818 enplanements in 2017. In the first two quarters of calendar year 2018, HOT has served 4,098 total passengers and is on pace to serve 8,196 total passengers by the end of the year, the highest total in the last 20 years. Consequently, it is estimated that HOT will have approximately 4,098 enplanements in 2018. These recent increases in passenger traffic validate the community’s commitment to utilizing the air service provided at HOT. TABLE 3-3 GTPFORECASTS – AIR CARRIER ENPLANEMENTS MEMORIAL FIELD 2017* 2022 2027 2032 2037 GARLAND COUNTY DIMINISHING GTP (00-16) 2,818 2,845 2,844 2,843 2,842 GARLAND COUNTY CONSTANT SHARE 2,818 2,970 3,015 3,060 3,106 GTP INCREASING GROWTH TO 2006 RATIO 2,818 3,241 3,566 3,900 4,243 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017 *2017 Enplanements Forecast figures updated to estimated actual enplanement figures based on Southern Airways data.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 59 of 159 MARKET SHARE FORECASTS The next forecasting method employed considers HOT’s market share of State of Arkansas domestic enplanements. National forecasts of U.S. domestic enplanements are compiled each year by the FAA and consider the state of the economy, fuel prices, and prior year developments. These forecasts are broken down by state and airport. The FAA’s Aerospace Forecasts include forecasts of both total domestic passenger enplanements as well as forecasts of regional carrier passenger enplanements. HOT is currently served by one regional airline with regular scheduled service. As such, enplanement forecasts based on HOT’s historic market share of regional carrier enplanements have been developed. The FAA forecasts enplanements by all airline carriers for all U.S. domestic routes to grow at 1.9 percent annually through 2036. The FAA also presents a regional carrier forecast that is a subset of total air carrier domestic enplanements. The FAA projects regional airline enplanements to increase at a 1.81 percent through the same period. Four enplanement projections have been developed as a market share of Arkansas domestic regional airline enplanement forecasts and are presented in Table 3-4. The first projection maintains a constant market share based on the 2015 market share, resulting in 4,280 enplanements by 2037. Increasing the market share back to the high experience in 2005 before the recession and when air travel from HOT was similarly priced and available, predicts 5,246 enplanements by 2037. Starting with the most recent enplanement data (2015) and forecasting enplanements at the FAA’s regional enplanement growth rate of 1.81 percent projects 4,130 enplanements by 2037. The final projection considers an increasing market share reaching 25 percent of the Arkansas EAS airports enplanements by 2037, yielding 5,815 enplanements. The increasing market share using the 2005 high forecast results in a moderate median-type optimistic, but non-aggressive expectation of future activity and is therefore preferred as the most reasonable. TABLE 3-4 MARKET SHARE FORECASTS – AIR CARRIER ENPLANEMENTS MEMORIAL FIELD 2017* 2022 2027 2032 2037 HOT CONSTANT SHARE – 2015 2,818 3,173 3,486 3,830 4,208 HOT INCREASING MARKET SHARE (2005 HIGH) 2,818 3,369 3,916 4,539 5,246 FAA GROWTH RATE (1.81%) 2,818 3,156 3,452 3,776 4,130 25% EAS ENPLANEMENT MARKET SHARE 2,818 3,478 4,156 4,931 5,815 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017 *2017 Enplanements Forecast figures updated to estimated actual enplanement figures based on Southern Airways data.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 60 of 159 AIRLINE FLIGHT SCHEDULE FORECASTS With over 8,400 potential enplanements available yearly at HOT, a series of enplanement percentage forecasts were examined. The most recent data for regional carriers across the U.S. indicates a passenger load factor of nearly 85 percent. Keeping load factors at or near this level is the goal of every airline, as it will provide them with the success needed to maintain operations and postulate growth in a market. EAS service typically does not see the same levels of load factors of the regional carriers, but after only 3 months of operation, HOT is achieving a load factor of almost 50% monthly. It is anticipated that a 65% load factor can be achieved in the near future. Three projections were developed towards achieving 65 percent, 75 percent, and 85 percent load factors by 2037 on the nine-seat Cessna Caravans due to resume operations in February 2017. Each projection of airline flight schedule enplanements maintains operations by nine-seat aircraft. Should load factor go beyond 75 percent, the airline has indicated they would offer more available seats through adding more flights per day versus changing aircraft type. Table 3-5 depicts each of these potential load factor forecasts. TABLE 3-5 AIRLINE SCHEDULE FORECASTS – AIR CARRIER ENPLANEMENTS MEMORIAL FIELD 2017* 2022 2027 2032 2037 65% LOAD FACTOR (2037) 2,818 3,535 4,182 4,829 5,476 75% LOAD FACTOR (2037) 2,818 3,745 4,603 5,460 6,318 85% LOAD FACTOR (2037) 2,818 3,956 5,024 6,092 7,160 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017 *2017 Enplanements Forecast figures updated to estimated actual enplanement figures based on Southern Airways data. ENPLANEMENT FORECAST SUMMARY Table 3-6 and Figure 3-4 summarize all projections made for regular scheduled commercial airline enplanements. These projections provide a range of forecasts from which a preferred forecast can be selected. The purpose of these forecasts is to support planning initiatives for future facility development directly tied to supporting commercial air carrier operations and passenger enplanements. It is the intent of this study to examine needs based on reasonable levels of future demand segments that could spur a response to the demand elements.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 61 of 159 TABLE 3-6 SUMMARY OF PASSENGER ENPLANEMENT FORECASTS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD FORECAST METHODOLOGY 2017** 2022 2027 2032 2037 GROSS TRAVEL PROPENSITY (GTP) FORECASTS GARLAND COUNTY DIMINISHING GTP (00-16) 2,818 2,845 2,844 2,843 2,842 GARLAND COUNTY CONSTANT SHARE 2,818 2,970 3,015 3,060 3,106 GTP INCREASING GROWTH TO 2006 RATIO 2,818 3,241 3,566 3,900 4,243 Market Share Forecasts HOT CONSTANT SHARE – 2015 2,818 3,173 3,486 3,830 4,208 HOT INCREASING MARKET SHARE (2005 HIGH) * 2,818 3,369 3,916 4,539 5,246 FAA GROWTH RATE (1.81%) 2,818 3,156 3,452 3,776 4,130 25% EAS ENPLANEMENT MARKET SHARE 2,818 3,478 4,156 4,931 5,815 Airline Schedule/Load Factor Forecasts 65% LOAD FACTOR (2037) 2,818 3,535 4,182 4,829 5,476 75% LOAD FACTOR (2037) 2,818 3,745 4,603 5,460 6,318 85% LOAD FACTOR (2037) 2,818 3,956 5,024 6,092 7,160 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017. * Preferred Enplanement Forecast **2017 Enplanements Forecast figures updated to estimated actual enplanement figures based on Southern Airways data.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 62 of 159 FIGURE 3-4 SUMMARY OF PASSENGER ENPLANEMENT FORECASTS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017 NOTE: 2017 Enplanements Forecast figures updated to estimated actual enplanement figures based on Southern Airways data. The projections presented form an enplanement planning envelope with a high of 7,160 and a low of 2,842. Based on the recent trends, it is unreasonable to believe that short-term and even longterm growth will follow the projections in the higher end of the planning envelope. However, the community make‐up, socioeconomic factors, and new air carrier entrant into the market provide HOT with the ability for a positive enplanement growth trend. The greatest inhibitor to enplanement growth at HOT is presently and will continue to be the availability of higher levels of service in Little Rock and the access afforded via the existing highway system. 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 TAF Garland County Diminishing GTP 00-16 Garland County Constant Share - 2016 GTP Increasing Growth to 2006 Ratio HOT Avg Constant Share - 2015 HOT Growth to 65% Load Factor HOT Growth to 75% Load Factor HOT Growth to 85% Load Factor HOT Growth Increasing Market Share to 2005 High HOT Growth FAA Growth Rate - 1.81% Increasing EAS Market Share (2015 to 25%) Hot Springs and Garland County Population PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037

Forecasts July 2022 Page 63 of 159 The selected enplanement projection is the HOT Increasing Market Share (2005 High). This projection will be rounded for planning purposes as follows: 2017 – 2,900 2022 – 3,370 2027 – 3,920 2032 – 4,540 2037 – 5,250 The forecast demand is aggressive but attainable with commitment from the local community and new entrant air carrier along with a continuous marketing and advertising effort from both. 2018 FORECAST UPDATE The airport has conducted several outreach activities to educate the community about the airport and the services it provides, including open houses in association with the fly-in car show, press releases, and regular communication with the Chamber of Commerce about airport services offered. So far it appears these efforts have been very successful as HOT is seeing record passengers in 2018. These passenger number increases are evidence of the community’s new commitment to the airport. FORECAST OF BASED AIRCRAFT The number of GA aircraft that can be expected to base at an airport facility is dependent on several factors, such as available facilities including available hangar space, airport operator services, airport proximity and access, etc. GA operators are particularly sensitive to both the quality and location of their basing facilities, with proximity of home and work often identified as the primary consideration in the selection of an aircraft-basing location. Hangars at HOT are at capacity. As shown on the hangar waiting list for HOT, demand for aircraft hangar storage is strong. In 2017, HOT was able to accommodate some of the demand for hangar space, increasing the number of based aircraft to 95. This sudden increase puts current based aircraft 17% over the TAF for 2017. Because of that deviation at the beginning of the forecast period the deviation from the TAF is 17% in the first 5 years of the forecast, but reduces to 12% at the 10- year mark in the forecast, and is only 6% higher than the TAF at 15 years. Determining the number and type of aircraft anticipated to be based at an airport is a vital component in developing the plan for the airport. Depending on the potential market and forecast, the airport will tailor the plan in response to anticipated demand. One factor that will impact the based aircraft growth is an active hangar waiting list. HOT maintains an active hangar waiting list. Currently there are 30 aircraft on the waiting list. The waiting list is updated annually and was updated as part of the preparation of this forecast chapter to ensure its accuracy. They have turned away many potential tenants who have expressed interest in basing aircraft at HOT due to the lack of open/available hangar space. It is anticipated that at least 10 based aircraft could be at the airport if new hangar units were immediately available as there are more than 15 requests since the beginning of 2015. The majority of these would be small single-engine general aviation aircraft looking for individual hangars or a T-hangar at HOT. The impacts of this waiting list will be taken into consideration for the based aircraft forecasts scenarios. If hangars are not built in the short-term future, based aircraft may not meet forecast.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 64 of 159 Numerous forecast methods were used to predict based aircraft growth for HOT. Six are presented here: Trend Line 1990-2016, FAA Percentage GA Fleet Growth Rate (Adjusted for Local Conditions), FAA Percentage Growth Rate per Aircraft Type, Regression Analysis based on population growth, Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) and Average of all the above except for the TAF because of the discrepancies previously mentioned. The Trend Line 1990-2016 analysis of HOT looked back at historic figures from 1990 to the present. The trend line process revealed an increasing trend and have been utilized to represent trend line growth at HOT. This forecast is very aggressive and was not selected as the preferred forecast. The FAA growth percentages for the overall segments of GA were employed. This forecast showed a slight growth in based aircraft for HOT but was less than the growth rate anticipated by the TAF. The growth rate forecasts were then adjusted for local conditions as HOT is providing hangar space that is currently allowing based aircraft to grow at a higher rate. After the first five years of the adjusted forecast, the increase rate in based aircraft is expected to moderate, but still remain slightly higher than expected for the rest of the country, due HOT’s location in a high-end resort and tourism community. This method produced a forecast that was reasonable, but significantly higher than the TAF over the planning horizon. Socioeconomic factors like population, median household income, and income distribution can also be tied directly to aircraft ownership. The City of Hot Springs and Garland County have experienced a slow increase in population (see socioeconomic data in the Inventory Chapter for historic figures) in the past 25 years. Household incomes and income distribution have also increased over the past 10 years. With these socioeconomic influences it is expected that they will influence based aircraft growth and the demands for basing aircraft at HOT, including the hangar waiting list. A regression analysis for based aircraft employing both Hot Springs and Garland County growth rates as the independent variable and based aircraft as the dependent variable produced a modest growth rate well below the TAF. The forecasting methods used produced a wide range of forecast possibilities, so an average of all the forecast methods, excluding the TAF data, was used as the preferred based aircraft forecast. Table 3-7 and Figure 3-5 provide a summary of the forecasts for based aircraft anticipated at the airport over the 20-year planning period.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 65 of 159 TABLE 3-7 SUMMARY OF BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD YEAR TREND LINE 1990 - 2016 FAA % GA FLEET GROWTH RATE (ADJUSTED FOR LOCAL DEMAND) FAA PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE PER AIRCRAFT TYPE REGRESSION ANALYSIS (HOT SPRINGS/GARLAND COUNTY POPULATION) FAA TERMINAL AREA FORECAST (TAF) AVERAGE FORECAST AVERAGE FORECAST (EXCLUDING TAF) 2017 94 99 94 94 78 92 98* 2018 116 101 96 99 84 99 102 2022 122 109 101 100 92 105 108 2027 129 119 106 102 101 111 115 2032 137 122 112 104 111 117 119 2037 144 125 117 105 121 122 124 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017 and FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2016 - 2036. *Updated to reflect based aircraft numbers as of 9/12/18.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 66 of 159 FIGURE 3-5 BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017 and FAA Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2016 - 2036. The mix of based aircraft for incremental periods throughout the planning period is illustrated in Table 3-8 and Figure 3-6, General Aviation Based Aircraft Fleet Mix, 2017-2037. With an existing high percentage of single-engine aircraft based on the field, the percentage of multi-engine aircraft, both piston and turbine, are expected to increase as a part of the total based aircraft population. This is in line with overall trends in GA with aircraft being used more and more for business purposes.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 67 of 159 TABLE 3-8 GENERAL AVIATION BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX, 2017-2035 MEMORIAL FIELD PREFERRED BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST AIRCRAFT TYPE 2017** 2022 2027 2032 2037 SINGLE-ENGINE 73 81 86 89 93 MULTI-ENGINE 14 14 15 15 15 JET 9 10 11 12 12 HELICOPTER 2 3 3 3 4 TOTAL 98 108 115 119 124 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2018; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. *Minor addition errors due to rounding. **Updated to reflect 2018 based aircraft numbers provided by the Airport on 9/12/18. FIGURE 3-6 GENERAL AVIATION BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2018; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 68 of 159 AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS In developing the HOT projections, several existing forecasts were reviewed. As presented in Table 3-9 and Figure 3-7, Summary of Aircraft Operations Forecasts, 2016-2037, this assessment includes the HOT trend line from 1990 to 2016, HOT average utilization rate from 1990 to 2016, Regression Analysis (Hot Springs & Garland County Population), and the FAA Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years, 2016-2036 average annual growth rate of 0.9 percent. The FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast is flat over the planning horizon, well under current operations for the base year of the forecast, and therefore eliminated as a viable option. The trend line forecast based upon actual historic activity at the airport produces the most aggressive forecast, and the forecast that deviates the most from the TAF. The HOT Average Utilization Rate is achieved by dividing the civilian operations by the based aircraft and then multiplying the result with the based aircraft for the forecast period which results in another aggressive, but more reasonable scenario. The population statistics for Garland County and the City of Hot Springs are on a slight incline and achieve the second lowest growth rate in our analysis. However, the population statistics for Hot Springs, and Garland County do not adequately account for the number of affluent part-time residents and visitors to the nearby resort and gaming locations that produce a large percentage of aircraft operations at HOT. The forecast produced by using the FAA’s aerospace growth rates for each operations type yields a forecast higher than the TAF and regression analysis, but reflective of more of an average rate of growth across the country and may not be applicable to the HOT area. The final scenario averages all growth rate scenarios with the exception of the TAF. This scenario provides a forecast on the middle to high side of the range. It is aggressive, but reasonable, and therefore is the preferred forecast scenario. According to the Arkansas Economic Development Institute, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Arkansas has seen slow but steady through since 2012 and this trend is expected to continue for the near future. If the economy continues to improve, it is not unreasonable to assume HOT could achieve the operations level provided by the higher forecasts. At this time, the preferred forecast provides HOT with an aggressive but achievable growth schedule.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 69 of 159 TABLE 3-9 SUMMARY OF AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD YEAR HOT TREND LINE (1990- 2016) HOT AVERAGE UTILIZATION RATE REGRESSION ANALYSIS (HOT SPRINGS & GARLAND CO POPULATION) FAA AEROSPACE GROWTH RATE FAA TAF AVERAGE FORECAST (EXCLUDING TAF) 2017 40,491 46,888 38,529 40,491 38.198 40,995 2022 48,279 48,867 39,110 42,904 38.198 44,790 2027 56,067 51,611 39,818 45,462 38.198 48,239 2032 63,855 53,689 40,297 48,171 38.198 51,503 2037 71,643 55,801 41,027 51,043 38.198 54,878 Notes: 2017 is the first forecast year. Preferred Forecast is highlighted. Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2018, FAA TAF 2018 – FAA APO Terminal Area Forecasts FIGURE 3-7 SUMMARY OF AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 70 of 159 AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX FORECAST Table 3-10 and Figure 3-8, Summary of Operations by Aircraft Type, 2017-2037, displays the aircraft fleet mix operations forecast for HOT for each phase throughout the 20-year planning period. An examination of total IFR operations at HOT provide some guidance towards an accurate fleet mix forecast. These records account for only a fraction of the total operations but provide an indicator of aircraft using HOT, which will help determine the fleet mix. Records from fuel sales and confirmed by TFMSC data show that the percentage of larger aircraft using HOT has grown faster than the total operations growth rate. This trend is expected to continue due to the type of traffic using the airport. At least one of the frequent B-II transient aircraft is being replaced by a C-II aircraft, so a percentage of the transient operations will be completed by larger aircraft in the future. This aircraft currently contributes approximately 48 annual operations to the fleet mix. Much of the itinerant traffic for the airport is generated by the horseracing and gaming activity in the area. Over the past several years, the Oaklawn Racing and Gaming organization has increased purses available for races in order to attract more high-profile horses and bigger races. This effort has moved them into the list of the top 5 horseracing venues in the nation. Oaklawn has also extended the racing season another month, further attracting more high-profile horses and races. Additionally, the Arkansas legislature voted to approve casino gambling in Arkansas and a casino is under construction on the Oaklawn property. The higher profile races and horses at Oaklawn can be correlated to increased size of aircraft using HOT. Additionally, after the opening of the casino, casino charters are anticipated at HOT. A casino charter that is currently flying into Shreveport flies passengers in and out on an MD-88 (D-III) approximately once per month for a total of approximately 48 operations a year. TFMSC data for the past couple of years confirms this trend. From 2017 to 2018 the recorded number of IFR operations grew 9%, and for the same time period the number of operations by C and D approach category aircraft increased by 23% to a total of 402 operations for 2018. This shows that the changes in the recreation activities in the area are leading to both an increase in operations at the airport as well as an increase in larger aircraft using HOT. If the growth continues and you factor in the operations of the aircraft about to be upgraded and the potential for charter flights, the total number of operations by C and D approach category aircraft will exceed the 500 annual operation threshold in the near future. The forecast fleet mix assumes that this trend will continue and that larger percentages of the operation will be completed by larger aircraft going forward. This data is used to determine future airfield design, facility, and service needs, and the configuration of terminal area facilities.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 71 of 159 TABLE 3-10 SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD OPERATIONS BY TYPE 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 SINGLE-ENGINE PISTON 23,841 24,981 26,168 27,459 27,861 MULTI-ENGINE PISTON 3,548 3,485 3,366 3,338 3,291 TURBO-PROP 6,177 6,906 7,524 7,842 8,632 TURBO-JET 7,719 9,117 10,831 12,489 14,693 HELICOPTER 250 300 350 375 400 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2018; and FAA Aerospace Forecasts 2016-2036 projections; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. FIGURE 3-8 SUMMARY OF OPERATIONS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE, 2017-2037(EXCLUDES MILITARY) MEMORIAL FIELD Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017; FAA Aerospace Forecasts 2016-2036 projections; 2001-2010, 2012- 2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 72 of 159 Total operations can be further broken down into aircraft approach categories and airplane design groups. This additional breakdown helps to better define the types of aircraft that will operate at the airport in the future. It allows for better planning of future facilities and airside needs for the airport and helps justify such facilities when the market demands such construction. Table 3-11, Fleet Mix Operations by Design Group, 2017-2037, displays this breakdown for the 20-year planning effort. TABLE 3-11 FLEET MIX OPERATIONS BY DESIGN GROUP, 2017-2035 MEMORIAL FIELD AIRCRAFT APPROACH CATEGORY 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 CATEGORY A (LESS THAN 91 KNOTS) 27,118 29,102 31,338 33,409 35,480 CATEGORY B (92 – 120 KNOTS) 13,258 14,775 16,151 17,261 18,370 CATEGORY C/D (121 – 166 KNOTS) 352 593 759 812 864 AIRPLANE DESIGN GROUP GROUP I (LESS THAN 49 FEET) 33,224 35,733 37,153 38,503 39,852 GROUP II (49 FEET TO 78 FEET) 6,665 8,672 10,618 12,538 14,459 GROUP III (79’ TO 118’) 80 88 97 107 120 HELICOPTER 250 300 350 375 400 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2018; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. Aircraft Approach Category is based on 1.3 times the stall speed of the aircraft at the maximum certified landing weight in the landing configuration. Totals may not equal due to rounding. LOCAL AND ITINERANT OPERATIONS According to FAA Order 7210.3U, Facility Operation and Administration, February 16, 2006, a local operation is any operation performed by an aircraft that “remains in the local traffic pattern, performs a simulated instrument approach, or operates to or from the Airport and a practice area within a 20-mile radius of the field or tower.” An itinerant operation is any operation not considered local. According to TAF records, 20% of the operations conducted at the airport are local and 80% are itinerant. These percentages reflect the relative balance of business and recreational operations at HOT and are expected to remain at or near these same levels throughout the forecast period. Table 3-12 and Figure 3-9, Summary of Local and Itinerant Operations, 2017- 2037, provides a summary of this information.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 73 of 159 TABLE 3-12 SUMMARY OF LOCAL AND ITINERANT OPERATIONS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD YEAR 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 LOCAL OPERATIONS 7,478 8,171 8,800 9,395 10,011 INTINERANT OPERATIONS 33,517 36,619 39,439 42,108 44,867 TOTAL 40,995 44,790 48,239 51,503 54,878 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. FIGURE 3-9 SUMMARY OF LOCAL AND ITINERANT OPERATIONS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 74 of 159 ANNUAL INSTRUMENT APPROACH FORECAST Table 3-13, Annual Instrument Approach Forecasts, 2017-2037, summarizes the forecast of annual civilian instrument approaches at HOT throughout the planning period. The forecast of annual instrument approaches (AIAs) provides further guidance in determining requirements for the type, extent, and timing of future navigational aid (NAVAID) equipment and new or improved instrument approach procedures or lower minimums. These figures represent IFR filed flight plans pulled from FAA OPSNET data . No tower data exists for HOT, but using similar Arkansas airports from the OPSNET data, approximately 20% of total airport operations are conducted with filed IFR flight plans. Actual instrument flight rules (IFR) operations conducted during instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), which exist whenever the cloud ceiling is at or below 1,000 feet and/or visibility is lower than 3 miles would be fewer. Table -13 shows the forecast of IFR operations over the planning horizon TABLE 3-13 ANNUAL INSTRUMENT APPROACH FORECASTS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD CATEGORY 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 ANNUAL OPERATIONS 40,995 44,790 48,239 51,503 54,878 ANNUAL TOTAL IFR OPERATIONS 7,252 7,923 8,533 9,111 9,708 TOTAL INSTRUMENT APPROACHES 3,626 3,962 4,267 4,555 4,854 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017, FAA OPSNET data for Arkansas towered airports 2010-2018, and FAA Aerospace Forecasts, 2016 – 2036. CRITICAL AIRCRAFT The “critical” aircraft at an airport is a collection of the most demanding group of aircraft using or expected to use the airport. Determining the critical aircraft is important for assessing airport design and layout and the structural and equipment needs for both the airfield and terminal area. The critical aircraft may be a single aircraft or, more commonly, a composite aircraft developed from the most common characteristics of the traffic demand at an airport. The critical design aircraft is defined by three parameters: Aircraft Approach Category (AAC), Airplane Design Group (ADG) and Taxiway Design Group (TDG). At a non-towered airport, the accurate accounting of an exact aircraft using the airport is challenging. At HOT a combination of TFMSC data, fuel sales data, and GARD Reporting (private count software) data was used to evaluate the critical aircraft. The aircraft operating at HOT vary from small piston aircraft to business jets. From the fuel sales data for 2017 (included in Appendix 37% of sales were to Aircraft Approach Category A aircraft, 30% - B, 5% - C, 0.5% - D, and the remaining fuel sales were to helicopters. Fuels sales were to Aircraft Design Group I-14.5%, II50%, III-1%, and the remaining being helicopters. This is reasonable based upon the kinds of business jets that fly in for horseracing and recreation and knowing that the Caravan flying the EAS service is an A-II. In the absence of tower data, correlating the fuel sales percentages to the

Forecasts July 2022 Page 75 of 159 operations data contained in the TAF and confirmed by the GARD Reporting, there are well over 500 operations by both the C approach category and the II design group. TFMSC data gives a more conservative record of operational data, but still lists the most demand groups of aircraft making regular use of the airport are in the II design group and in the B approach category, currently. The latest year’s data of category C traffic is not quite 500 operations, however, the significant increase in approach category C traffic in recent years warrants expectation of the operations by category C traffic to reach the 500 threshold in the current year. Consequently, the “critical” aircraft at HOT is in the Runway Design Code (RDC) B-II-2400 category. The current Runway Reference Code (RRC) is B-II-2400. The Dassault Falcon 2000 series is deemed the existing critical aircraft. The crosswind runway, Runway 13-31, currently has an RDC and RRC of B-II-5000. The preferred forecasts confirm this to be the critical aircraft during the short-term and maintain it as such throughout the 20-year planning period. The current B-II aircraft operating at HOT are the Dassault Falcon 900, Dassault Falcon 2000, and Cessna Citation X. With the growth the airport has been experiencing, the Gulfstream IV, Challenger 600 series, and Challenger 350, are anticipated to be the critical aircraft soon. Larger passenger and cargo diversions in the C-III, D-IV categories occasionally use HOT as well. Other aircraft in Design Group II that frequently use the airport are the King Air 300, Cessna Caravan, Cessna 650, and Aerocommander. There are also a growing number of business jets that utilize HOT including the Falcon 50, and Cessna Citation Excel. It is expected that the critical aircraft for Runway 5/23 will become the C-II category in less than five years. Recently, the Airport has seen an increasing number of Gulfstream aircraft using the airport. Consequently, the Gulfstream IV, a C-II aircraft, was selected as the future critical aircraft. If larger aircraft (C-III, D-IV, etc.) begin using HOT on a regular basis, a new forecasting effort should be undertaken to determine if the critical aircraft for HOT needs to be revised. Table 3-14, Table 3-15, and Table 3-16 summarize the raw data for five years of operations obtained from TFMSC broken out by Aircraft Approach Category Summary, Airport Reference Code, and Airplane Design Group.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 76 of 159 TABLE 3-14 AIRCRAFT APPROACH CATEGORY OPERATIONS SUMMARY MEMORIAL FIELD AAC 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 A 2112 2,064 1,980 1,888 1,694 965 B 3,800 3,779 4,210 3,705 4,322 2,174 C 411 283 254 298 372 276 D 37 16 42 30 30 27 TOTAL 6,360 6,142 6,486 5,921 6,418 3,442 Source: FAA TFMSC TABLE 3-15 AIRPORT REFERENCE CODE OPERATIONS SUMMARY MEMORIAL FIELD ARC 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 A-I 2,046 1,988 1,910 1,828 1,639 937 A-II 66 76 70 60 55 28 B-I 1,589 1,465 1,471 1,421 1,307 581 B-II 2,211 2,306 2,735 2,279 3,010 1,589 B-III 0 8 4 5 5 4 C-I 151 157 155 174 209 172 C-II 259 118 88 112 158 99 C-III 1 1 2 4 4 1 C-IV 0 7 9 8 1 4 D-I 15 6 16 8 9 9 D-II 14 6 18 18 17 12 D-III 8 4 8 4 4 6 TOTAL 6,360 6,142 6,486 5,921 6,418 3,442 Source: FAA TFMSC

Forecasts July 2022 Page 77 of 159 TABLE 3-16 AIRPLANE DESIGN GROUP OPERATIONS SUMMARY MEMORIAL FIELD ADG 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 I 3,801 3,616 3,552 3,431 3,164 1,699 II 2,550 2,506 2,911 2,469 3,240 1,728 III 9 13 14 13 13 11 IV 0 7 9 8 1 4 TOTAL 6,360 6,142 6,486 5,921 6,418 3,442 Source: FAA TFMSC In 2015 AAR Corporation began scaling back their operations at HOT and ceased to exist at HOT in 2016. The company leased several hangars on the airfield and had a mission of flying in CRJ aircraft for servicing, as well as decommissioning and salvaging. These commercial operations accounted for a significant number of operations by AAC C aircraft at the airport. The relocation of this branch of the company correlates directly with the significant drop in AAC C operations from 2014 to 2016. Around that same time (2016), leadership changed at Oaklawn Racing and Gaming. The new leadership’s strategic plan involved raising the purse sizes for races, increasing the live racing season, and making improvements to the stables to attract more high-profile horses and trainers to the racetrack. Horses frequently locate and train at the racetrack for the entire racing season creating an influx of trainers, jockeys, and other support staff. The city of Hot Springs has experienced similar increases in the number of luxury houses and condominiums being built on Lake Hamilton that runs through the city. Increasing the caliber and profile of the races increases the caliber and profile of all the associated connections to the horses including the owners. Very often, owners will fly to the racetrack cities on race day in their personal corporate aircraft. It is important to note that as Oaklawn began to execute their strategic plan, the number of operations by AAC C aircraft began to increase as the more affluent owners began to locate their horses at the racetrack for the season. Since 2016, the AAC C operations lost by the closure of AAR have been steadily replaced by AAC C and D aircraft operations associated with the racetrack and will likely replace the operations lost by the end of 2019. If this 4-year trend of increasing operations by AAC C and D aircraft continues, HOT will exceed the 500 annual operations as early as 2020, especially when you take into account the frequent itinerant B-II aircraft that is going to be replaced by a C-II aircraft in the future. Table 3-17 illustrates aircraft specifications for two representative aircraft that are in the RDC – II category and operate at HOT.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 78 of 159 TABLE 3-17 EXISTING AND FUTURE CRITICAL AIRCRAFT CHARACTERISTICS FOR RUNWAY 5-23 MEMORIAL FIELD AIRCRAFT TYPE AND ARC WING SPAN AIRCRAFT LENGTH AIRCRAFT TAIL HEIGHT SEATING MAX GROSS TAKEOFF WEIGHT APPROACH SPEED DASSAULT AVIATION FALCON 2000 SERIES B-II 70’-2” 66’-4” 23’-2” 10 41,000 LBS. 125 FORECASTED FUTURE CRITICAL AIRCRAFT GULFSTREAM IV C-II 77’ 10” 88’ 4” 24’-5” 15 74,600 LBS. 125 Source: Garver, Dassault Aviation, and Gulfstream aircraft specifications material 2017 In addition to the forecasted operations previously described, the Arkansas Department of Emergency Management (ADEM) has deemed Hot Springs Memorial Field Airport as a Primary Airport for emergency response due to its capability to handle C-130J (C-IV) aircraft. In the event of a catastrophic seismic disaster from the New Madrid Fault, KHOT would likely be the primary airport for emergency relief, as it is the first primary airport outside of the New Madrid Impact Zone. The C-130J is assumed to be an aircraft significantly used for disaster relief. The Earthquake Annex from ADEM is included as an appendix. TABLE 3-18 EXISTING AND FUTURE CRITICAL AIRCRAFT CHARACTERISTICS FOR RUNWAY 5-23 AND RUNWAY 13-31 MEMORIAL FIELD RUNWAY CRITICAL AIRCRAFT RDC APRC DPRC TDG FORECASTED EXISTING CRITICAL AIRCRAFT RUNWAY 13-31 CESSNA CITATION V B-II-5000 B/II/VIS B/II 2 RUNWAY 5-23 DASSAULT AVIATION FALCON 2000 B-II-2400 D/VI/2400 D/VI 2 Forecasted Future Critical Aircraft RUNWAY 13-31 CESSNA CITATION V B-II-5000 B/II/5000 B/II 2 RUNWAY 5-23 GULFSTREAM IV C-II-2400 D/IV/2400, D/V/2400 D/IV, D/V 2 Source: Garver, Cessna, Dassault Aviation, and Gulfstream aircraft specifications material 2017

Forecasts July 2022 Page 79 of 159 PEAKING CHARACTERISTICS Live Racing Season at Oaklawn Racing and Gaming contributes significant traffic to HOT. Live racing at Oaklawn typically occurs each week from Thursday through Sunday, from mid-January until mid-April. The peak traffic days at HOT are typically experienced the preceding day, the day of, and/or the day following a big race at the park, such as the Rebel Stakes, Apple Blossom Handicap, and the Arkansas Derby. Based on the reports generated by the Airport’s GARD software, the airport experienced 216 operations on the day prior to Spring Fever 2017, 182 operations the day after the Rebel Stakes 2017, 186 operations the day of the Rainbow Miss 2017, 186 operations the day of the Apple Blossom Handicap 2017, and 182 operations the day of the Arkansas Derby 2017. The average of the peak days for 2017 is approximately 189 operations, and 0.47% of the forecast traffic for 2017. Assuming 80% of the operations on peak days are itinerant, and of those itinerant operations, one is an arrival and one is a departure, the demand for transient aircraft parking can be forecast. Table 3-19 below includes the forecast peak days for 2017-2037 as well as the demand for transient aircraft parking. TABLE 3-19 SUMMARY OF PEAK OPERATIONS, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD YEAR 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 LOCAL OPERATIONS 38 41 43 46 49 ITINERANT OPERATIONS 151 162 174 186 198 TRANSIENT AIRCRAFT PARKING 76 81 87 93 99 TOTAL 189 203 217 232 247 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2017; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. FORECAST SUMMARY The various forecast elements are displayed in Table 3-20, General Aviation Forecast Summary, 2017-2037. The forecasts, combined with the inventory data, will be used to identify and develop the facility requirements and the need for improved general aviation facilities to serve Hot Springs Memorial Field Airport. The next chapter, Facility Requirements, identifies the types and extent of facilities needed to adequately accommodate the demand levels identified in this chapter.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 80 of 159 TABLE 3-20 GENERAL AVIATION FORECAST SUMMARY, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD BASED AIRCRAFT BY TYPE YEAR 2017** 2022 2027 2032 2037 SINGLE-ENGINE 73 81 86 89 93 MULTI-ENGINE 14 14 15 15 15 JET 9 10 11 12 12 HELICOPTER 2 3 3 3 4 TOTAL 98 108 115 119 124 OPERATIONS YEAR 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 SINGLE-ENGINE PISTON 23,841 24,981 26,168 27,459 27,861 MULTI-ENGINE PISTON 3,548 3,485 3,366 3,338 3,291 TURBO-PROP 6,177 6,906 7,524 7,842 8,632 TURBO-JET 7,179 9,117 10,831 12,489 14,693 HELICOPTER 250 300 350 375 400 LOCAL OPERATIONS 7,478 8,171 8,800 9,395 10,011 ITINERANT OPERATIONS 33,517 36,619 39,439 42,108 44,867 TOTAL 40,995 44,790 48,239 51,503 54,878 Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2018; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. **Updated to reflect 2018 based aircraft numbers provided by the Airport on 9/12/18. TAF COMPARISON As previously shown, the current FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) shows zero growth in enplanements and aircraft operations during the 20-year forecast period. The TAF estimates that enplanements will remain at 1,348 enplanements annually and aircraft operations will remain constant at 38,198 operations annually during the forecast period. This zero-growth forecast scenario is not realistic. The preferred forecasts for enplanements and operations developed as part of this master planning process reflect a realistic potential growth pattern at the airport. In 2017, the airport’s actual enplanements were 2,818, which is over 100% higher than the estimate provided in the TAF. Additionally, based on enplanement numbers through the first two quarters of 2018, HOT is expected to have approximately 4,098 total enplanements in calendar year 2018, far outpacing the TAF’s projection of 1,348. Additionally, in 2018, the airport has seen its average load factor increase to 50%, which is slightly above the national average of 49% for EAS flights. Total aircraft operations are expected to grow slowly at 1.47% annually during the forecast period in close correlation to the overall growth of commercial and general aviation as described in the FAA’s current Aerospace Forecast.

Forecasts July 2022 Page 81 of 159 The based aircraft forecast provided in this Airport Master Plan is over 10% higher than the TAF’s forecast for based aircraft during the +5 and +10 forecast years. However, the current number of based aircraft at HOT (98 total based aircraft as of 9/12/18) is already equal to the number of based aircraft expected at HOT in the +10-year forecast interval of the TAF. Since the current number of based aircraft are already out pacing the projection provided in the TAF, a more aggressive forecast is necessary. It is also expected that HOT’s based aircraft numbers will increase even further if additional hangars are built to satisfy existing demand shown on the hangar waiting list. Table 3-21 compares the preferred forecast numbers to the current TAF. TABLE 3-21 TAF COMPARISON, 2017-2037 MEMORIAL FIELD ENPLANEMENTS YEAR 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 PREFERRED ENPLANEMENT FORECAST 2,818 3,369 3,916 4,539 5,246 TAF ENPLANEMENT FORECAST 1,348 1,348 1,348 1,348 1,348 % DIFFERENCE 109% 150% 191% 237% 289% AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS YEAR 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 PREFERRED AIRCRAFT OPS FORECAST 40,995 44,790 48,239 51,503 54,878 TAF AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECAST 38,198 38,198 38,198 38,198 38,198 % DIFFERENCE 7.32% 17.26% 26.29% 34.83% 43.67% BASED AIRCRAFT YEAR 2017** 2022 2027 2032 2037 PREFERRED BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST 98 108 115 119 124 TAF BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST 81 89 98 108 118 % DIFFERENCE 20.99% 21.35% 17.35% 10.19% 5.08% Source: Garver Forecast Data for HOT, 2018; 2001-2010, 2012-2014, FAA General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity (and Avionics) Surveys. **Updated to reflect 2018 based aircraft numbers provided by the Airport on 9/12/18.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 82 of 159 CHAPTER 4: FACILITY REQUIREMENTS INTRODUCTION This chapter evaluates the existing airport facilities and identifies improvements needed to effectively meet the forecasted demand discussed in the Forecast Chapter in a manner that complies with FAA standards and best practices. Identification of a needed facility or infrastructure improvement does not necessarily constitute a “requirement” in terms of design standards, but an “option” for facility improvements to accommodate future aviation activity. Market demand will ultimately drive facility development at Memorial Field Airport (HOT), and the operational statistics discussed in the forecast chapter (e.g. aircraft operations, based aircraft, etc.) should be used to help guide this discussion. Airport facilities can be divided into two areas: airside and terminal/landside. The airside facility components include runways, taxiways, and their associated safety areas, navigational aids (NAVAIDs), airfield marking/signage, and lighting, while terminal/landside area components are comprised of hangars, terminal building, FBO facilities, aircraft parking apron, fuel storage and delivery, vehicular parking, and airport access. Each of these facilities, including their current condition and forecasted demand, will be discussed in the remainder of this chapter. The results of this chapter will be utilized to drive the alternatives that are developed in Chapter 5. AIRSIDE/AIRSPACE FACILITIES RUNWAY LENGTH Runway length for an airport can be evaluated utilizing a number of methodologies. To ensure a thorough and sufficient analysis of the current length of HOT’s runways, two evaluation methodologies were used for this analysis: Runway Length Evaluation based on AC 150/5325-4B Runway Length Evaluation Utilizing the Airport Planning Manuals (AMP) for Future Critical Aircraft (Gulfstream IV)

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 83 of 159 RUNWAY LENGTH EVALUATION BASED ON AC 150/5325-4B FAA AC 150/5325-4B, Runway Length Requirements for Airport Design, provides guidance to help determine the most appropriate recommended runway lengths for an airport. Runway length is typically predicated upon the category of aircraft using or forecasted to use the airport. By design, the primary runway at an airport is typically the longest runway, with the most favorable wind conditions, the highest pavement strength, and the lowest straight-in instrument approach minimums. A significant factor to consider when analyzing the generalized runway length requirements is that the actual length necessary for a runway is a function of elevation, temperature, and stage length. As temperatures, altitude, and aircraft stage length change, the runway length requirements change accordingly. Thus, if a runway is designed to accommodate 75% of the fleet at 60% useful load, this does not prevent larger aircraft at certain times and during specific conditions from utilizing the runway. However, the amount of time such operations can safely occur is restricted. As Table 4-1 indicates, Runway 5/23 meets the generalized runway length requirements for 100% of the small aircraft GA fleet with 10 or more passenger seats and 75% and 100% of the large aircraft fleet (12,500 lbs. to 60,000 lbs.) at 60% of useful load. However, Runway 13/31 falls 82 ft. short of meeting the generalized runway length requirements for 100% of the small aircraft GA fleet with 10 or more passenger seats and does not meet any of the generalized runway length requirements for large aircraft.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 84 of 159 TABLE 4-1 RUNWAY LENGTH REQUIREMENTS AIRCRAFT CATEGORY RUNWAY DESIGNATION CURRENT RUNWAY LENGTH RUNWAYLENGTH REQUIREMENT DEFICIENCY Small Aircraft: 12,500 pounds or less: 95%GA Fleet 5/23 6,595 3,150 3,445 13/31 4,098 948 100 %GA Fleet 5/23 6,595 3,800 2,795 13/31 4,098 298 100 %GA Fleet with 10 or more passenger seats 5/23 6,595 4,180 2,415 13/31 4,098 -82 Large Aircraft between 12,500 and 60,000 pounds: 75%of fleet at 60%useful load 5/23 6,595 4,987 1,608 13/31 4,098 4,745 -647 75%of fleet at 90%useful load 5/23 6,595 6,737 -142 13/31 4,098 6,495 -2,397 100%of fleet at 60%useful load 5/23 6,595 5,687 908 13/31 4,098 5,445 -1,347 100%of fleet at 90%useful load 5/23 6,595 8,387 -1,792 13/31 4,098 8,145 -4,047 Source: AC 150/5325-4B, Runway Length Requirements for Airport Design, Figures 2-1, 2-2, 3-1 and 3- 2. Generalized length only. Actual lengths should be calculated based on the specific aircraft’s operational nomographs. Useful load refers to all usable fuel, passengers, and cargo. Calculations based on 540.3’ airport elevation, mean maximum daily temperature of 84˚F. The runway end elevation differences for HOT are as follows: 5/23 – 38.7 ft., RWY 13/31 – 14.5 ft. Figures are increased 10 feet for each foot of elevation difference between high and low points of runway centerline for large aircraft calculations. RUNWAY LENGTH EVALUATION BASED ON AIRCRAFT PLANNING MANUALS The sufficiency of a runway’s length can also be evaluated by reviewing the performance characteristics of aircraft that currently or are forecasted to operate from an airport. Information regarding aircraft performance can typically be obtained by reviewing the Airport Planning Manuals (APM) for the aircraft or by contacting aircraft manufacturers. As stated in the Forecast Chapter, the Gulfstream IV is expected to be the future critical aircraft for HOT. Consequently, the G-450 APM found on the Gulfstream website was

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 85 of 159 used to calculate the distance a standard G-450 (comparable in size and performance characteristics to the G-IV) could fly from HOT given the current length of Runway 5/23. For these calculations, a standard Gulfstream 450 was assumed with Rolls-Royce Tay MK 611-8C engines. Additionally, standard day +25° F temperatures were used to account for the conditions the aircraft would operate under during the summer months. Based on these factors, a Gulfstream-450 operating at MTOW could depart HOT on a standard day +25° F at a takeoff weight of approximately 74,600 lbs. and achieve its maximum range of 4,350 nautical miles (assuming 50% payload and a full fuel load). RUNWAY LENGTH EVALUATION BASED ON AIRCRAFT PLANNING MANUALS Even though the critical aircraft does not demand additional runway length, based upon examination of the past changes in aircraft fleet to increasingly larger corporate jets, and the number of aircraft types included in the “100% of fleet” curves that regularly use HOT including the Challenger 601, Falcon 10, Hawker 800 and Learjet 45, it is prudent for HOT to plan for an extension of Runway 5/23 if fleet mix changes continue to occur. In the Alternatives Chapter, options for expanding Runway 5/23 to 7,000 ft. and 7,200 ft. will be considered. RUNWAY STRENGTH FAA AC 150/5320-6E, Airport Pavement Design and Evaluation, provides guidance on the structural design of airport pavements. The FAA requires the use of the pavement design program, FAARFIELD, to determine the pavement section that will support the various aircraft gear loadings. The design is be based on a 20-year life cycle. FAARFIELD analyzes the damage to the pavement done by each aircraft and determines the final pavement thickness/structure based on the total cumulative damage of all aircraft. The published runway pavement strength for each of the runways at HOT is shown in Table 4-2.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 86 of 159 TABLE 4-2 EXISTING RUNWAY WEIGHT BEARING CAPACITY GEAR CONFIGURATIONS RUNWAY 5/23 RUNWAY 13/31 SINGLE WHEEL GEAR (S) 75,000 28,000 DUAL WHEEL GEAR (D) 125,000 36,000 DUAL TANDEM (2D) 210,000 63,000 DUAL DOUBLETANDEM (DDT) 400,000 N/A PCN 54 /F/D/X/U 25 /F/D/Y/T Source: HOT 5010. Table 4-3 shows the landing gear configuration and Maximum Takeoff Weight (MTOW) of the larger aircraft currently operating at HOT. TABLE 4-3 EXISTING FLEET MIX MTOWAND GEAR CONFIGURATIONS AIRCRAFT GEARCONFIGURATION MTOW (LBS.) CHALLENGER 601 DUAL WHEEL 45,100 FALCON 10 DUAL WHEEL 17,000 HAWKER 800 DUAL WHEEL 28,000 BEECHJET 400 DUAL WHEEL 16,100 GULFSTREAM 450 DUAL WHEEL 74,600 Source: Aircraft manufacturer websites. Based on the forecasted fleet mix, the published pavement strength for Runway 5/23 is sufficient to meet the pavement strength demand during the forecast period. Runway 13/31 received an Asphalt overlay in 2009 when the runway was narrowed. Included in that overlay was a significant leveling course of asphalt required to shift the crown of the runway to its current location. Consequently, the runway strength of the 13/31 pavement should be more than sufficient for the traffic it receives even though no strength analysis was completed to update the published pavement strengths in the airport master record. It is not expected that the weight bearing capacity of Runway 13/31 will need to be increased during the forecast period.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 87 of 159 RUNWAY ALIGNMENT An evaluation of runway alignment is based on crosswind coverage and velocity and is based on the FAA guidance provided in FAA Advisory Circular 150-5300-13 (current series), Airport Design. In general, the FAA deems a runway to have sufficient wind coverage when the wind coverage is 95% or better for the runway’s allowable crosswind component which is based on the runway’s Runway Design Code (RDC). As discussed in the Forecast Chapter the critical aircraft for HOT is expected to be in the C-II category. Consequently, the RDC for Runway 5/23 is C-II. The critical aircraft for Runway 13/31 is expected to remain in the B-II category. Consequently, the RDC for Runway 13/31 is B-II. The allowable crosswind component for these RDCs is 16 knots and 13 knots, respectively. Table 4-4 shows the crosswind coverage percentages for each runway at HOT and the combined runway wind coverage percentage. TABLE 4-4 RUNWAY CROSSWIND COVERAGE ALL WEATHER WIND COVERAGE % IFRWIND COVERAGE% VFR WIND COVERAGE % RUNWAY 10.5 KNOTS 13 KNOTS 16 KNOTS 10.5 KNOTS 13 KNOTS 16 KNOTS 10.5 KNOTS 13 KNOTS 16 KNOTS 5/23 98.46% 99.26% 99.91% 98.31% 99.20% 99.83% 98.50% 99.27% 99.92% 13/31 97.21% 98.58% 99.79% 98.00% 98.95% 99.69% 97.06% 98.51% 99.81% BOTH 99.83% 99.98% 99.99% 99.81% 99.95% 99.98% 99.83% 99.98% 100.00% Source: FAA Airports – GIS Wind Analysis Tool using HOT wind data as generated by the FAA’s GIS tool. Completed 2/15/18. Based on the results of this analysis, the existing runways provide sufficient wind coverage to meet FAA requirements. Consequently, an additional runway does not need to be considered to meet crosswind requirements. INSTRUMENT APPROACH PROCEDURES Instrument Approach Procedures (IAPs) are critical to ensuring the usability of a runway during poor weather conditions. IAPs provide guidance to pilots via land-based equipment or GPS satellites that aid them in executing an approach to land on a runway when a visual approach to the runway is not possible. The types of IAPs vary widely, however they can generally be segmented into three primary categories: precision, non-precision, and circling approaches. Precision instrument approaches are approaches where a pilot is provided with both vertical and horizontal guidance and the visibility minimums for the approach are below ¾ of a mile. Non-precision instrument are any straight-in instrument approaches with visibility minimums not lower than ¾ of a mile. Circling approaches are

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 88 of 159 instrument approaches that do not provide an aircraft with a straight-in approach to a runway. Currently, HOT has an ILS/LOC to Runway 5, an RNAV/GPS approach to Runway 5, and a VOR Z approach to Runway 5. The ILS approach to Runway 5 provides standard ILS minimums of 0.5 miles visibility and 200 ft. ceilings. No IAPs exist for Runway 23 or Runway 13/31. Circling minimums are available utilizing the Runway 5 IAPs to reach these other runways. Based on a historic weather analysis, IFR conditions occur with winds favoring Runway 23 approximately 6.34% of the year. Consequently, the feasibility of adding an IAP to Runway 23 will be reviewed in the alternatives chapter. MAGNETIC DECLINATION Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information, the current magnetic variation at HOT is 4.7O East with a 0.1O West annual change. Currently, the established magnetic heading for each runway is shown below: Runway 5/23 – 50 O and 230 O Runway 13/31 – 130 O and 310 O Based on the established annual rate of change, it is not expected that the runways at HOT will need to be re-designated during the forecast period. AIRPORT DESIGN CONSIDERATIONS Compliance with airport design standards is vitally important because compliance with these standards aids an airport in maintaining a minimum level of operational safety. The major airport design elements are established by FAA AC 150/5300-13 (current series), Airport Design. Ideally, airports should conform to all established FAA airport design standards without a requiring a Modification to Standards (MOS). However, frequently this is not possible as many airports have infrastructure that was designed before the current design standards were established. In these cases, airport operators are generally required to improve the facilities to the new design standards if they accept FAA grant funds to rehabilitate or improve that particular facility. Table 4-5 provides an overview of the FAA Design Standards and the current facilities at HOT.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 89 of 159 TABLE 4-5 RUNWAY DESIGN ITEM FAA DESIGN STANDARD (B-II2400) FAA DESIGN STANDARD (C-II2,400 RWY) RUNWAY 5/23 FAA DESIGN STANDARD (B-II5,000 RWY) RUNWAY 13/31 RUNWAY DESIGN: WIDTH (FT) 100 100 150 75 100 RSA WIDTH (FT) 300 500 500 150 150 RSALENGTH BEYOND R/W END (FT) 600 1000 1000/600 300 300 OFA WIDTH (FT) 800 800 600 500 500 OFALENGTH BEYOND R/W END (FT) 600 1000 1000/600 300 200/200 ROFZ WIDTH (FT) 400 400 400 400 150 ROFZ LENGTH BEYOND R/W END (FT) 200 200 200 200 200 RUNWAY SETBACKS - RUNWAY CENTERLINE TO: PARALLEL TAXIWAY CENTERLINE (FT) 300 400 400 240 240 HOLDLINE (FT) 250 250 250 200 150 AIRCRAFT PARKING AREA (FT) 400 500 500 250 250 Source: FAA AC 150/5300-13 Based on the analysis above, there are a number of deficiencies that need to be addressed for HOT to meet the current FAA design standards. Each of these deficiencies are discussed below. RUNWAY SAFETY AREA The Runway Safety Area (RSA) is a two-dimensional area surrounding a runway that is centered along the runway centerline and extends beyond the edges of the useable runway pavement. RSA’s are provided to reduce the risk of damage to airplanes in the event of undershoot, overshoot, or excursion from the runway pavement. Runway Safety Areas must be free of objects, except those required for air navigation, and be graded to transverse and longitudinal standards to prevent water accumulation. Objects located in the RSA that are over 3 inches above grade must be constructed, to the extent practical, on frangible mounted structures with a frangible point no higher than 3 inches above grade. Under dry conditions, the RSA must support Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting (ARFF) equipment, snow removal equipment, and the occasional passage of aircraft without causing damage to the aircraft. The FAA recommends airports own the entire RSA in “fee simple” title. Based on AC 150/5300-13 (current edition), Airport Design, the RSA width for a C-II-2,400 runway should be 500 ft. wide and 1,000 ft. beyond the end of the runway. Based on the current airfield configuration, Runway 5/23 is unable to meet this requirement at the approach end of Runway 5 due to the fence, trees, shrubbery, and terrain grade south of the extended runway centerline approximately 600 ft. – 1,000 ft. from the runway end. Figure 4-1 depicts this area. Alternatives to resolve this deficiency will be considered in the Alternatives Chapter.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 90 of 159 FIGURE 4-1 RUNWAY 5/23 – RSA DEFICIENCY Source: Garver, 2018. RUNWAY OBJECT FREE AREA The Runway Object Free Area (ROFA) is a two-dimensional area surrounding a runway that is centered along the runway centerline. The ROFA must be clear of objects except those used for air navigation or aircraft ground maneuvering purposes and clear of aboveground objects protruding higher than the elevation of the RSA at the closest adjacent point. An object is considered any terrain, structure, navigational aid, people, equipment, or parked aircraft. The FAA recommends that an airport own the entire ROFA in "fee simple" title. Based on AC 150/5300-13 (current edition), Airport Design, the ROFA width for a C-II2,400 runway should be 800 ft. wide and 1,000 ft. beyond the end of the runway. Based on the current airfield configuration, Runway 5/23 is unable to meet this requirement at the approach end of Runway 5 due to the fence, trees, shrubbery, and power lines south of the extended runway centerline approximately 600 ft. – 1,000 ft. from the runway end. Additionally, approximately 1,300 ft. of vehicle service road, south of Runway 5/23 close to

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 91 of 159 the approach end of Runway 5, also penetrates the ROFA for Runway 5/23 as well as some trees and shrubbery in that same area. Figure 4-2 depicts this area and the aforementioned deficiencies. Alternatives to resolve these deficiencies will be considered in the Alternatives Chapter. FIGURE 4-2 RUNWAY 5/23 – ROFA DEFICIENCY Source: Garver, 2018. OBSTACLE FREE ZONE The Obstacle Free Zone (OFZ) is a volume of airspace above and centered along the runway centerline. The OFZ precludes taxiing and parked airplanes and object penetrations except for objects required to be located in the OFZ due to their function. OFZs can have a number of different components including a Runway Obstacle Free Zone (ROFZ), inner-transitional OFZ, inner approach OFZ, and a Precision Obstacle Free Zone (POFZ). The ROFZ applies to all the runways at HOT. Currently, the Inner-transitional OFZ, inner-approach OFZ, and POFZ only apply to Runway 5 because it is the only runway with a precision instrument approach and an approach lighting system. The application to all four OFZ surfaces is discussed below.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 92 of 159 Runway Obstacle Free Zone (ROFZ) The length of a ROFZ is fixed at 200 feet beyond the associated runway end but the width is dependent upon the size of the aircraft using the runway (small – less than 12,500 lbs. or large – greater than 12,500 lbs.) and the visibility minimums for the lowest instrument approach to the runway. The ROFZ width for both runways at HOT is 400 feet wide (200 ft. each side of the runway centerline) as both runways are used by aircraft over 12,500 lbs. The elevation of the ROFZ is equal to the closest point along the runway centerline. Runway 5/23 currently meets the established ROFZ standards. Runway 13/31 does not meet the established ROFZ standard as the runway hold position markings associated with the runway are located 150 ft. from the Runway 13/31 centerline. The ROFZ clearing standard precludes aircraft from taxiing through the ROFZ. Based on the location of the existing runway hold position markings, aircraft waiting at the runway hold position are within the established ROFZ for the runway, thus violating the clearing standard. This deficiency will be considered in the Alternatives Chapter. It is expected that this deficiency can be resolved by relocating the runway hold position markings and signs to their proper location. Figure 4-3 displays this issue. This issue will be considered during the development of alternatives.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 93 of 159 FIGURE 4-3 RUNWAY 13/31 ROFZ ISSUE Source: Garver, 2017. INNER APPROACH OFZ Runway 5 has a MALSR approach lighting system. Consequently, an inner approach OFZ is applicable. The inner approach OFZ begins at the end of the ROFZ (200 ft. beyond the runway end) and extends to a point 200 ft. beyond the last lighting unit the MALSR system (2,600 ft. beyond the runway end). Consequently, the total inner approach OFZ is 2,400

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 94 of 159 ft. in length. Additionally, the inner approach OFZ rises at a 50:1 slope from the edge of the ROFZ and remains the same width as the ROFZ (400 ft.). The current inner-approach OFZ for Runway 5 meets the established FAA standards. INNER TRANSITIONAL OFZ The inner transitional OFZ is a defined volume of airspace along the sides of the ROFZ and inner approach OFZ. It applies only to runways with lower than ¾ statue mile approach visibility minimums. Runway 5 has an ILS approach with visibility minimums of ½ mile. Since these visibility minimums are below ¾ mile an inner-transitional OFZ is applicable. Figure 4-4 display the inner approach OFZ configuration for Runway 5 and its relationship to the ROFZ and inner transitional OFZ. FIGURE 4-4 RUNWAY 5 INNER TRANSITIONAL OFZ Source: Garver, 2018.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 95 of 159 For category 1 ILS runways, the inner transitional OFZ begins at the edges of the ROFZ and inner-approach OFZ and then rises vertically to a height (“H”) which is calculated using the following formula: H = 61 – 0.094(S) – 0.003(E) “S” is equal to the most demanding wingspan of the RDC of the runways which, for HOT, is 118 ft. “E” is equal to the runway threshold elevation above sea level which, for HOT, is 501.6 ft. MSL. Based on this formula, “H” equals 48.4 ft. for Runway 5. After rising to a height of “H”, the inner transitional OFZ then slops outward at a 6:1 slope until reaching 150 ft. above the established airport elevation (690.3 ft. MSL). The inner transitional OFZ for Runway 5 currently meets all established FAA standards. PRECISION OFZ (POFZ) The final OFZ surface that applies to Runway 5 is the Precision Obstacle Free Zone (POFZ). The POFZ is a defined volume of airspace above an area beginning at the threshold of the runway that extends to 200 ft. beyond the end of the runway and is 800 ft. wide, centered along the extended runway centerline. The volume of airspace begins at the threshold elevation for the runway the applicable runway end. The wing of an aircraft may penetrate the POFZ but penetrations involving an aircraft fuselage or tail are not permitted. Runway 5 is the only runway at HOT that requires a POFZ. The POFZ for Runway 5 begins at the runway threshold elevation for Runway 5 which is 501.6 ft. MSL. The POFZ for Runway 5 meets all established FAA standards. RUNWAY HOLD POSITION MARKINGS The runway hold position markings (or hold lines) denote the entrance to the runway from a taxiway and the location where aircraft are supposed to stop when approaching the runway. Their location is prescribed by FAA AC 150/5300-13 (current edition), Airport Design. They are generally located across the centerline of a given taxiway within 10 feet of an associated runway hold position sign. The baseline standard for a C-II-2,400 runways is 250 ft. from the runway centerline, and currently, all the runway hold position markings associated with Runway 5/23 are located 250 ft. from the Runway 5/23 centerline which meets C-II-2,400 design standards. As previously mentioned, the runway hold position markings associated with Runway 13/31 are located too close to the Runway 13/31 centerline. These markings, and their

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 96 of 159 associated signage, should be relocated to positions 200 ft. from the Runway 13/31 centerline or reduce the classification of the runway. RUNWAY TO PARALLEL TAXIWAY SEPARATION STANDARDS According for AC 150/5300-13 (current edition), Airport Design, the minimum necessary runway centerline to parallel taxiway centerline separation for a runway with an RDC of CII is 400 ft. and 240 ft. for a runway with an RDC of B-II. Both Runway 5/23 and Runway 13/31 meet the current runway to parallel taxiway separation standards. Neither runway has a full length parallel taxiway but there are portions of Taxiways Alpha, Delta, Echo, Golf, and Mike are all parallel to one of the runways. None of these taxiway segments have less than the minimum required separation. BUILDING RESTRICTION LINE According to AC 150/5300-13 (current series), Airport Design, the Building Restriction Line (BRL) represents the boundary where it is generally suitable or unsuitable to develop buildings such as hangars, terminals, or other facilities. The BRL is established based on an airport’s FAR Part 77 imaginary surfaces, Runway Protection Zones (RPZs), Obstacle Free Zones (OFZ), Object Free Areas (OFA), runway visibility zones, NAVAID critical areas, and approach surfaces. Based on existing instrument approach procedures, the Runway 5/23 primary surface is 1,000 feet wide (500 ft. each side of the runway centerline) and extends 200 feet beyond each runway end. The primary surface for Runway 13/31 is 500 ft. wide (250 ft. each side of the runway centerline) and extends 200 feet beyond each runway end. The transitional surface slopes up (7:1) from the primary surface to the horizontal surface which is 150 feet above airport elevation (airport elevation is 540.3 ft. MSL). Based on the activity at the field, instrument approach procedures, and RDC, the 35.0 foot BRL should be 745 ft. from the Runway 5/23 centerline and 495 ft. from the Runway 13/31 centerline. HOT currently has three hangars/facilities that are located inside the 35.0 ft. BRL: BRL Associated with Runway 13/31 – The hangar located at the approach end of Runway 31 is approximately 395 ft. from the Runway 13/31 centerline which places it approximately 100 ft. inside the BRL. However the transitional surface height at that point is 20 feet and the hangar is below that surface at 19 feet tall. BRL Associated with Runway 5/23 – Hangar A-12 located east of the terminal building is located 710 ft. from the Runway 5/23 centerline placing it 35 ft. inside

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 97 of 159 the BRL. This hangar is approximately 32 feet tall and is a possible penetration of the 7:1 Transitional Surface. BRL Associated with Runway 5/23 – Both of the hangars located at the approach end of Runway 5 are located approximately 685 ft. from the Runway 5/23 centerline placing them 60 ft. inside the BRL. The clear span hangar is approximately 28 feet tall and is a possible penetration to the transitional surface at that point. The adjacent t-hangar is approximately 17 feet tall and is not suspected to be a penetration to the transitional surface at that point. All future developments should be located outside of the BRL. Placing buildings inside the BRL is possible if the height of a building is minimized. However, locating buildings inside the BRL may hamper the options for expanding HOT in the future. In the alternatives chapter, buildings that are confirmed as transitional surface penetrations will be considered for future relocation. RUNWAY LINE-OF-SIGHT To ensure the safety of aircraft operations at an airport it is imperative that proper lines of sight exist along a single runway and amongst intersecting runways. These lines of sight facilitate coordination amongst aircraft and vehicles operating on a runway(s) by allowing them to identify the position of other aircraft or vehicles operating on the same runway or on an intersecting runway. On a single runway, an acceptable runway profile permits any two points, generally each runway end, five (5) feet above the runway centerline, to be mutually visible for the entire runway length. If the runway offers a full-length parallel taxiway, an unobstructed line of sight should exist from any point five feet above the runway centerline to any other point five feet above the runway centerline for one-half the runway length. Both Runway 5 and Runway 31 are at lower elevations, but line of sight is acceptable. On intersecting runways, an acceptable runway profile permits visibility between established points on each intersecting runway so aircraft operators and vehicle operators can see other aircraft or vehicles operating on the intersecting runway. Based on a review of the airfield layout, there are no profile issues with the intersecting runway line of sight at HOT. However, there are areas of terrain trees near the Runway intersection areas that obstruct the view of the Runway end for the other runway. Alternatives to address these obstructions will be considered.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 98 of 159 RUNWAY PROTECTION ZONE The purpose of the Runway Protection Zone (RPZ) is to enhance the protection of people and property on the ground, and to prevent developments that are incompatible with aircraft operations. The FAA recommends that airports own the entire RPZ in "fee simple" title and that the RPZ be clear of any non-aeronautical structure or object that would interfere with the arrival and departure of aircraft. However, if “fee simple” interest is unachievable, the next option is controlling the heights of objects through an avigation easement and keeping the area clear of any facilities that would support an incompatible activity (e.g. places of public assembly, etc.). The RPZ is a two-dimensional trapezoidal area that normally begins 200 feet beyond the paved runway end and extends along the runway centerline. When it begins somewhere other than 200 feet from a runway end, there is a need for two RPZs, an approach RPZ and a departure RPZ. The approach RPZ begins 200 feet from the runway threshold. A departure RPZ begins 200 feet beyond the end of runway pavement or 200 from the end of the Takeoff Runway Available (TORA), if established. An FAA Interim Guidance Letter (IGL) (Sept 2012) addressed acceptable property uses within an RPZ. The IGL was released to specify and emphasize existing use standards and indicates that if any of the following parameters are met then the RPZ ownership must be reevaluated: An airfield project (e.g., a runway extension, runway shift); A change in the critical design aircraft that increases the RPZ size; A new or revised instrument approach procedure that increases the RPZ dimensions; and, A local development proposal in the RPZ (either new or reconfigured). Land uses within an RPZ that require specific and direct coordination with the FAA include: Buildings and structures Recreational land uses Transportation facilities Rail facilities Public road/highways Vehicular parking facilities Fuel storage facilities

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 99 of 159 Hazardous material storage Wastewater treatment facilities Above-ground utility infrastructure RPZ dimensions are determined by the type/size of aircraft expected to operate at an airport and the type of approach, existing or planned, for each runway end (visual, precision, or non-precision). The recommended visibility minimums for the runway ends are determined with respect to published instrument approach procedures, the ultimate runway RDC, airfield design standards, instrument meteorological conditions, wind conditions, and physical constraints (approach slope clearance) along the extended runway centerline beyond the runway end. Table 4-6, Runway Protection Zone Dimensions, delineates the RPZ requirements at HOT. TABLE 4-6 RUNWAY PROTECTION ZONE DIMENSIONS RUNWAY END(S) APPROACHING VISIBILITY MINIMUMS FACILITIES EXPECTED TO SERVE (AAC - ADG) LENGTH (FT) INNER WIDTH (FT) OUTER WIDTH (FT) ACRES RUNWAY 5 LOWER THAN 3/4 MILE B-II 2,500 1000 1750 78.914 RUNWAY 5 LOWER THAN 3/4 MILE C-II 2,500 1000 1750 78.914 RUNWAY 23 VISUAL B-II 1,000 500 700 13.77 RUNWAY 23 VISUAL C-II 1,700 500 1,010 29.465 RUNWAY 13 VISUAL B-II 1,000 500 700 13.77 RUNWAY 31 VISUAL B-II 1,000 500 700 13.77 Source: FAA Advisory Circular 150/5300-13 (current series). The RPZ’s for Runway 5, 13, and 31 all extend outside of HOT’s existing property line. The only RPZ that is completely on airport property is the RPZ associated with the approach end of Runway 23.

Facility Requirements July 2022 Page 100 of 159 Figure 4-5, 4-6, and 4-7 depict the existing RPZs and highlight the portions outside of airport property. FIGURE 4-5 RUNWAY 5 RPZ Source: Garver, 2018. FIGURE 4-6 RUNWAY 13 RPZ Source: Garver, 2018.