Central Bank of Egypt - cbe.org.eg

Central Bank of Egypt

External Position of the Egyptian Economy

July/September 2012/13

Quarterly Report

Volume No. (39)

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position

Preface

The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is a series
produced by the Statistics and Economic Reports Sector in the Central
Bank of Egypt (CBE). The report tracks, on quarterly basis, the
international transactions that the Egyptian economy conducts with the
rest of the world. It relies, for this purpose, on the national statistics
that are regularly compiled in line with the SDDS prescriptions.

Enthused by the CBE keenness to enhance its disclosure,
transparency and communication policy, the report is meant to serve
several functions. Generally, it spreads, to a broad array of readers,
knowledge of Egypt’s external accounts including the balance of
payments, external debt, international investment position and external
liquidity. Particularly, it monitors key external sector performance
indicators of the economy in order to identify areas of policy needs.
The information revealed in this series has also significant implications
for decision-making, investment climate, doing-business environment
and sovereign credit ratings.

The report contains 5 sections. The first Two give a performance
portrait of the key components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP),
and its external liquidity. The Third and Fourth review developments
related to Egypt’s external debt in its different classifications, in
addition to the Egyptian pound exchange rate performance. The Fifth
section is a statistical part that provides more details on the above
mentioned four sections. This is in addition to a part that contains
definitions of key terms used in the report as well as other
miscellaneous information.

The report is downloadable from CBE website www.cbe.org.eg. Hard
copies can be obtained from the Economic Research Sector, 8th floor,
54 El Gomhouria Street, Cairo.

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position

Section I: Table of Contents Page
Section II:
Section III: Overview 1
Balance of Payments 3
Section IV: BOP Performance. 5
Statistical Section: 5
1-Current Account 7
2-Capital and Financial Account 8
External Liquidity 8
A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 9
B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 9
External Debt 10
A - Breakdown by Maturity 11
B - Breakdown by Type 12
C - Breakdown by Currency 15
D - Breakdown by Creditor 19
E - Breakdown by Debtor 21
F - External Debt Indicators 22
G - External Debt Sustainability 23
H – Annual External Debt indicators 24
25
and Global Comparison 26
Exchange Rate Developments 27
Appendix I 31-45
1-Balance of Payments 46-58
2- International Investment Position (IIP)
3- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey 59

(CPIS) 63
4-NIR & NFA at Banks 64
5-External Debt by Type 65
6-External Debt Indicators 66
7-External Debt by Debtor 68
8-Exchange Rates
Appendix II
A- Medium-and long- Term External Debt
B- Projected Medium-and Long-Term

Public and Publicly Guaranteed
External Debt Service
C- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of
External Debt versus US Dollar
Appendix III
Box. (1): Egypt's subscription to SDDS and
data quality dimensions.
Box. (2):Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions.
Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt:
Reforming through difficult times.
Box. (4): Tourism Market Diversification
Definitions and Terminology

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position

Overview

Egypt's transactions with the merchandise imports. The decrease
was mainly ascribed to the fall in
external world in Q1, 2012/2013 foreign currencies.
resulted in an overall balance of
payments (BOP) deficit of US$ 518.7 During the report’s preparation, NIR
million (against US$ 2.4 billion in registered US$ 15.0 billion at end of
the respective quarter a year earlier). November 2012.
As a result, net international reserves
(NIR) at the Central Bank of Egypt Banks' net foreign assets amounted
declined further. to US$ 13.1 billion at end of
September 2012, down by US$ 0.4
The BOP deficit came on the back of billion from end of June level.
the current account, which ran a
deficit of US$ 278.9 million (against Foreign currency deposits with
US$ 2.2 billion). Meanwhile, the banks increased by 0.6 percent, to
capital and financial account reach US$ 31.0 billion at end of
unfolded a net inflows of US$ 443.9 September 2012. As a percentage of
million (against US$ 502.4 million). total deposits, they registered 20.3%
at end of September 2012 against
The current account deficit during 20.7% at end of June.
July/Sept. 2012/2013 declined, Total external debt increased by
mainly due to the US$ 839.7 million US$ 335.4 million to US$ 34.7
rise in workers' remittances and the billion at end of September 2012,
US$ 760.4 million decrease in from US$ 34.4 billion at end of June.
merchandise imports.
The external debt has remained
The capital and financial account within manageable limits and its
revealed that portfolio investment in position continued to have a
Egypt unfolded a net outflow of US$ favorable structure; with 91.5 percent
327.1 million in the reporting period of the total represents the share of the
(against US$ 1.7 billion in the period medium and long term debt and 95.1
of comparison). In addition, FDI in percent contributed by the public
Egypt declined, to record a net inflow sector. Over the recent years, external
of US$ 108.1 million (against US$ debt indicators have shown a
440.1 million) perceptible improvement, though the
size of debt has increased. The debt
Egypt's International Investment accumulation was moderate and debt
Position (IIP)* continued to register sustainability indicators have im-
net liabilities, realizing US$ 53.2 proved progressively, keeping ex-
billion at end-Dec. 2011, up from ternal debt within manageable limits.
US$ 44.1 billion at end-Dec. 2010
and US$ 29.7 billion at end-Dec. The weighted average of the inter-
2009. bank foreign exchange market rate
reached EGP 6.094 per US dollar at
Net international reserves (NIR) end of Sept. 2012, against EGP 6.059
decreased by US$ 0.5 billion during at end of June. Accordingly, the
July/September 2012/13, to reach Egyptian pound interbank rate de-
US$ 15.0 billion at end of Sep- preciated by 0.6 percent during
tember 2012,covering 3.3 months of July/Sept. 2012/2013.

__________________
* IIP statement was first introduced in Volume 20 of the External Position Report, to be updated annually at end

of December each year within the SDDS requirements.

Section I
Balance of Payments

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 1

BOP Performance

During July/Sept. 2012/13
E gypt's transactions with the
external world in Q1, 2012/2013 1.1: Trade on Goods
resulted in an overall balance of
payments (BOP) deficit of US$ 518.7 The trade volume decreased by 2.7
million (against US$ 2.4 billion in the percent, to reach US$ 20.8 billion
respective quarter a year earlier). As a (7.1 percent of GDP).
result, net international reserves
(NIR) at the Central Bank of Egypt The trade deficit narrowed by US$
declined further. The BOP deficit 0.9 billion, to US$ 6.9 billion (2.4
came on the back of the current percent of GDP) from US$ 7.8 billion
(3.0 percent of GDP) from the
corresponding quarter, due to:

account, which ran a deficit of US$ The decline in merchandise im-
278.9 million (against US$ 2.2 ports (CIF) by 5.2 percent to US$
billion). Meanwhile, the capital and 13.8 billion, owing the decrease in
financial account unfolded net non-oil imports by 6.9 percent (78.9
inflows of US$ 443.9 million (against percent of total imports) and the
US$ 502.4 million). increase in oil imports by 1.5 percent

The chart (1) shows developments in (21.1 percent of the total).

Egypt’s BOP main components, on The Pick up in merchandise
net and quarterly basis. exports (FOB) by 2.7 percent to 6.9

US$ billion, supported by the rise in

US$ bn Chart (1): BOP Recent Performance both oil exports by 4.3 percent (48.5

4.0 percent of total exports) and non-oil

2.0 exports by 1.2 percent (51.5 percent

0.0 of the total). As a result, the export /
import ratio increased to 50.2 percent

‐2.0

during July/September 2012/13,
‐4.0 compared with 46.4 percent.
‐6.0

‐8.0 Chart(2):Oil & Non oil Exports and Imports
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 July / September

2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 US $ bn

Capital & Financial Account Current Account Balance 10.0

Overall Balance 5.0

1 - Current Account 0.0

The current account deficit declined -5.0
during July/Sept. 2012/13 to US$ -10.0
278.9 million (0.1 percent of GDP) -15.0
from US$ 2.2 billion (0.8 percent of -20.0
GDP). This was an outcome of the
US$ 839.7 million rise in workers' 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
remittances and the US$ 760.4 non oil exports
million decrease in merchandise oil exports non oil imports
imports. oil imports
Trade Balance

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 2

The following charts illustrate the • 1.2.1: Services & income receipts
distribution of commodity exports by increased by 4.4 percent, to US$ 5.6
degree of processing and imports by billion(against US$ 5.4 billion),
degree of use, in Q1, 2012/2013. driven by the increase in main items
as following:
Chart (3): Proceeds of merchandise Exports
US$ 6.9 bn • Transportation receipts by 7.7
percent to US$ 2.2 billion, due to
Fuel, Raw Semi- Finished higher receipts of Egyptian shipping
materials finished goods and airlines companies, in spite of
mineral 4.2 % goods the decrease in Suez Canal receipts
39.1% by 5.3 percent, registering US$ 1.3
oils & 7.5% billion .
products
• Government Services receipts to
49.2% US$ 81.3 million (against US$ 18.7
million), reflecting higher other
Chart (4):Payments for merchandise Imports government receipts, and expenses
of Arab League & international
US$13.8 bn, of which organizations located in Egypt.

Fuel, Raw Intermediate Investment Consumer • Other services receipts by 13.3
materials goods goods goods percent to about US$ 632.4 million,
mineral 28.3% spurred mainly by the rise of
15.1% 17.1% 23.1% communication and construction
oils & services.
products
• Investment income receipts by 1.6
15.6 % percent to US$ 56.9 million (against
US$ 56.0 million). This reflects a
1.2: Services & Income Balance rise of other investment income
receipts.
• The surplus on services &
income balance scaled up by 4.7 US $ bn Chart(6): Income Balance Q1
percent, to record US$ 1.7 billion
(0.6 percent of GDP), as a result of 2.0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
the increase in services & income 1.5
receipts by 4.4 percent and the rise 1.0
in services & income payments by 0.5
4.2 percent, as shown in charts (5) 0.0
& (6). ‐0.5
‐1.0
‐1.5
‐2.0

Q1

2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013

Chart (5):Services Balance Inco me Receipts Inco me P ayments

US$ bn Inco me B alance

5.0

4.0

3.0 Such an increase was curbed by the
decline in tourism revenues by 2.3
2.0 percent to about US$ 2.6 billion
(against US$ 2.7 billion), principally
1.0 on the back of the reduction of
the number of tourist nights to 35.5
0.0 million ( from 37.4 million nights),

‐1.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013

Transportation Services Balance Tourism Services Balance
Government Services Balance
Other Services Balance
Services Balance

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 3

despite the increase in the tourist billion). This was caused by the rise
average expenditure per night from in net Private transfers by 21.3
US$ 72.2 to US$ 74.4 . (see Appen- percent, to US$ 4.9 billion. (mainly
dix III , Box 4) due to the pickup in workers'
remittances by 20.6 percent) and the
1.2.2: Services & Income payments rise in net official transfers to US$
increased by 4.2 percent, to about 40.4 million .
US$ 4.0 billion (against US$ 3.8
billion). This was attributed to the US$ bn Chart(7): Unrequited Transfers
increase in the following items: 5.0
• Transportation Payments by 39.2 4.0
3.0
percent to US$ 435.0 million 2.0
(against US$ 312.4 million), due to 1.0
higher payments of foreign shipping -
companies and larger amounts
transferred for the maintenance of Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
airplanes at foreign airports.
2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
• Other services payments by 27.8
percent, to US$ 950.5 million, Private Transfers (Net) Official Transfers (Net)
driven by higher royalties and Workers' Remittances
license fees, construction and
building services and insurance Against this background, most
services. external balancing indicators are seen
to be improved in the reporting
• Travel payments by 15.5 percent, to period, as shown in chart (8).
US$ 724.0 million, mainly due to
higher travel expenses for Chart(8): External Balancing Indicators
pilgrimage, and for Visa Card
payments. July/Se pt. (%)

Conversely the following items Merchandise Exports / Merchandise Imports 50.2
decreased: 46.4
• Investment Income payments by
Services Receipts / Services Payments 143
9.0 percent to US$ 1.6 billion, as a 142.8
result of lower transfers of interest
and dividends on bonds and Current Receipts / Current Payments 98.4
securities, profit transfers of 88.2
foreign petroleum companies and
interest on external debt . Current Receipts(excluding official transfers) / 98.2
• Government Services payments by Current Payments 88.1
32.8 percent, to US$ 215.8
million, reflecting the decrease in 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0
other government payments and
expenses of Egyptian embassies 2011/2012 2012/2013
abroad.
2- Capital and Financial Account
1.3: Unrequited transfers (Net), The capital and financial account
As shown in chart (7), unrequited unfolded net inflows of US$ 443.9
transfers (net) increased by 21.8 million during July/Sept. 2012/13
percent, to US$ 4.9 billion in (against US$ 502.4 million), due to
July/Sept. 2012/13, (against US$ 4.0 the following factors:

A-Portfolio investment in Egypt
registered a net outflow of US$
327.1 million in the reporting
period, (against US$ 1.7 billion in
the period of comparison).
This was ascribed to foreigners'

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 4

transactions on Egyptian bonds real estate sector (0.7 percent),
and treasury bills that unfolded other services sectors (0.5
net sales of US$ 133.5 million and percent), communica-tion sector
net sales of US$ 193.6 million of (0.2 percent), tourism (0.1
shares. percent). The share of the
construction sector was 0.2
B -Foreign direct investment (FDI) percent, while the remaining
in Egypt recorded a net inflow of portion was acquired by
US$ 108.1 million (against US$ undistributed figures.
440.1 million), mainly because no
sale of local entities to non- C- Medium & long term loans and
residents took place in the suppliers' credits realized net
reporting period (compared with repayments of US$ 509.2 million,
US$ 293.9 million in the period of during July/Sept. 2012/13 (against
comparison). Net investments of US$ 455.2 million). This was an
the oil sector unfolded net outcome of the decline in total
outflows of US$ 446.8 million drawings to US$ 281.2 million
(against US$ 412.4 million). from US$ 337.5 million, while
Green-field investments unfolded total repayments remained rela-
net inflows of US$ 540.1 million tively stable at US$ 790.4 million.
(against US$ 521.9 million).
D- Short term suppliers' credits
The sectoral breakdown of total recorded a net inflow of US$
FDI inflows as depicted in chart 73.8 million (against US$ 741.9
(9) shows that the petroleum million).
sector has the lion's share of 74.4
percent, while the other sectors E- Net foreign assets and liabilities
reveal that the majority of FDI of the banking sector and other
went into the manufacturing sectors posted an inflow of US$
sector, with a share of 6.7%. 1.2 billion (against an inflow of
Services sectors followed, with US$ 1.7 billion).
4.6%, distributed as follows:
financial sector (3.1 percent),

Chart (9):Total FDI in Egypt by Economic Sector

July/Sept. 2012/2013

Construction Sector

0.2% Undistributed Sectors

14.1%

Real Estate Sector
0.7%

Petr ol eum Ser vi c es Financial Sector
Sector 3.1%
Sector 4.6%
74.4% Tourism Sector
Manufacturing Sector 0.1%
6.7%
Communi ca ti on
Sector
0.2%

Other Services
Sectors
0.5%

Section II
External Liquidity

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 5

External Liquidity

A-Net International Reserves (NIR) B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks
(NFA)
During July/September 2012/13,
NIR decreased by US$ 0.5 Banks’ net foreign assets declined
billion against US$ 2.5 billion during by US$ 0.4 billion during July/
the corresponding period a year September 2012/13 (against US$ 2.2
earlier, to reach US$ 15.0 billion (3.3 billion), to reach US$ 13.1 billion at
months in terms of merchandise end of September 2012.
imports coverage) at end of
September 2012.

Chart (1) Chart (2)
Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks
NIR & Months of Merchandise Imports Covered
( End of Month)
US$ bn ( Balance at end of Month ) (Month)
30.0 7.0
US$ bn Assets Liabilities
25.0
27.0 6.0

24.0

21.0 5.0

18.0 20.0

15.0 4.0

12.0 3.0 15.0

9.0

6.0 2.0

3.0 10.0

0.0 1.0

June -11 Sept -11 June -12 Sept -12 5.0

Foreign Currencies 0.0
Loans to IMF Jun-11 Sep-11 Jun-12 Sep-12
Gold
Reserv es/Months Imports

The decrease was mainly ascribed to Foreign currency deposits with
the fall in foreign currencies by banks increased by 0.6% during the
about US$ 0.5 billion worth. reporting period, reaching US$ 31.0
billion at end of September 2012. On
While this report was under the same manner, local currency
deposits increased by 3.3%. This
preparation, NIR registered US$ means that the propensity to save in
Egyptian pound remained higher
15.0 billion at end of November than in foreign currencies.

2012. (US$ mn)
June Sept.
End of 2012 2012

Net International

Reserves (1-2) 15534 15043

1- Gross Official Reserves 15556 15068

Gold 3303 3303

SDRs 1243 1263

Foreign Currencies 10926 10416

Loans to IMF 84 86

2- Reserve Liabilities 22 25

(Reserves/months of imports) 3.1 3.3

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 6

As such, the ratio of foreign currency Chart (3)
deposits to total deposits decreased
to 20.3% at end of September 2012, Developm ents in Deposits by Local and
from 20.7% at end of June.
LE bn Foreign Currencies %
1000 ( End of Month) 10.0

900 5.0

800 0.0

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0 Se p-11 Jun-12 Sep-12
Jun-11

Foreign Currency Deposits
Local Currency Deposits

Growth rate of Local Currency Deposits
Growth rate of Foreign currency Deposits

Section III
External Debt

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 7

External Debt Chart (1)
External Debt at End
E gypt's external debt increased to
US$ 34.7 billion at end- of September 2012
September 2012 from US$ 34.4
billion at end-June. This brings the
increase in the stock of debt to US$
Short
335.4 million. Of that figure, the Term Long
valuation effects1 accounted for US$ 8.5% Term
440.4 million. In addition, such 88.8%
developments can be interpreted in
Medium
terms of the following cross-border Term
financial transactions: 2.7%

• Net disbursements of foreign By residual maturity2, medium and
loans and facilities contributed long term debt represented 84.7
US$ 170.5 million. percent of the total debt. In
comparison, they accounted for 91.5
• Outstanding balance of non- percent of the total by original
residents’ holdings of Egyptian maturity. Similarly, short-term debt
government bonds and notes showed an increase, as it represented
issued abroad fell by US$ 275.5 15.3 percent, compared to 8.5
million. This was mainly due to percent classified by original
the US$ 284.5 million of maturity.
nonresidents’ holdings of 5-year
Egyptian pound Eurobonds Short-term Debt by Residual (US$
(redeemed in July 2012). Maturity End- September 2012 million)
Nevertheless, the fall has been 1. Short-term debt by original
held back by the US$ 9.0 2944.6
million of sales by residents’ maturity
entities. 2. Medium & long-term debt 2304.2

A- Breakdown by Maturity maturing within one year 5248.8
3. External debt by residual 15.1
By original maturity, external debt maturity up to 1 year (1+2) 34.9
reaffirmed during the reporting
quarter its usual pattern of long-term Percentage to Total External Debt 29471.2
debt predominance. Long-term debt 84.9
accounted for US$ 30.8 billion or Percentage to NIR
88.8% of the total, whereas short- 4. Medium & long-term debt by
term debt posted US$ 2.9 billion or residual maturity
8.5%. Still, medium-term debt has
accounted for the smallest portion of Percentage to Total External Debt
US$ 948.0 million or 2.7%.
2 While the analytical presentation of external debt
1 The valuation effects arise because external debt is by original maturity is the norm recommended in
denominated in different currencies and the US the External Debt Statistics Guide, residual maturity
dollar value, which is the international numeraire presentation still draws significant attention. In
for indicating debt numbers, fluctuates over time other words, compilation of external debt statistics
vis-à-vis these currencies. based on original maturity helps in understanding
the nature of capital flows; while the remaining
maturity provides a profile of debt service
payments, especially those falling due in the near
term, and so of potential liquidity risks facing the
economy. Short term debt by residual maturity
comprises all components of short term debt with
original maturity of up to one year and the amounts
falling due -under medium and long term debt by
original maturity- within one year or less.

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 8

B- Breakdown by Type Short-term debt increased by US$
42.7 million to US$ 2.9 billion or 8.5
Medium- and long-term debt percent of total debt. This was
accounted for 91.5 percent of total mainly due to an increase in short
debt, of which: term credit by US$ 13.4 million (to
US$ 2.0 billion), and in non-
• Bilateral loans (rescheduled and residents' deposits by US$ 29.3
non-rescheduled) and suppliers’ million (to US$ 943.0 million).
& buyers’ credit owed to Paris
Club members, reached US$ The structure of external debt data
15.1 billion or 43.5 percent of reveals an ongoing improvement.
total debt. The public sector owed US$ 33.0
billion or 95.1 percent of Egypt’s
• Non-Paris Club members' debt external debt, while the private
amounted to US$ 1.2 billion or sector owed US$ 1.7 billion or 4.9
3.4 percent of total debt. percent.

• International and regional Chart (2) External Debt Structure
organizations debt reached US$
11.4 billion or 32.7 percent of End of Septem ber 2012
total debt, up by US$ 288.2
million, compared to end of Long Term Private sector
June 2012 level. Deposits
4.3% (Non Short term debt
• Government bonds and notes guaranteed) 8.5%
decreased by US$ 275.5 Egyptian bonds
million, to around US$ 2.6 and notes 0.1%
billion or 7.5 percent of total 7.5%
debt at end - September 2012. Rescheduled
These include: (i) US$ 1.3
billion of guaranteed 10–year bilateral debt
notes, issued in Sept. 2005; (ii)
US$ 875.2 million of 10-and 30.6%
20–year sovereign notes issued
in April 2010; and (iii) US$ International & Other bilateral
500.0 million of the 5–year regional debt
Treasury bond issued in June 15.1%
2012 to Saudi Fund for organizations
Development. 32.7%

• A long-term deposit of US$ 1.5 Suppliers' &
billion was placed at the Central buyers' Credits
Bank of Egypt.
1.2%
• Non-guaranteed medium - and
long-term debt of the private C- Breakdown by Currency
sector decreased by US$ 40.4
million to US$ 10.9 million or Measuring the currency composition
0.1 percent of the total at end - of Egypt's external debt is an
September 2012. important indicator that sheds light
on the external debt exposure,
arising from currency markets'
volatility.

A breakdown of the currency
composition of external debt
indicates that the US dollar is the
main borrowing currency, with a
relative importance of 44.6 percent
of the total. This upward biased
share of US dollar largely reflects
the fact that there are creditors other
than the USA (such as the African
Development Bank and the Interna-
tional Bank for Reconstruction and
Development), which pooled loans
accounted as US dollar loans.

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 9

Other important currencies were: E- Breakdown by Debtor
the euro which is the runner-up
(24.4 percent), the Japanese yen The structure of Egypt’s external
(12.5 percent), the Special Drawing debt by debtor did not witness any
Rights* (8.0 percent) and the significant change. The central and
Kuwaiti dinar (6.6 percent). These local government remained the main
currencies combined accounted for debtor, with US$ 25.4 billion or 73.2
51.5 percent of the total debt. percent of the total external debt at
end-September 2012, compared with
Chart (3) External Debt US$ 25.6 billion or 74.4 percent at
by Major Currencies end-June.

End of Septem ber 2012

Japanese Kuwaiti Euro (US$ bn) Chart (5) External Debt by Debtor
y en dinar 24.4% 40 End of September
6.6%
12.5% SDRs
Egy ptian 8.0% 30

Pound
0.8%

20

Swiss f ranc Other 10
1.4% US dollar currencies
44.6%
1.7%

0

2010 2011 2012

D- Breakdown by Creditor Central & Local Gov ernment
Monetary Authority
Distribution by creditor country Banks
indicated that 38.1 percent of Egypt's Other Sectors
external debt came from four
countries; namely Japan (11.9 External debt by institutional sectors
percent), Germany (9.8 percent), showed an increase of US$ 335.4
France (8.4 percent) and USA (8.0 million during the period under
percent). Meanwhile, 32.7 percent review. The bulk was in monetary
was owed to international organi- authority's outstanding balances at
zations**; (mainly IBRD 8.7%, EIB end- September 2012, with a rise of
5.3% and ADF & AfDB 4.7%) and US$ 517.8 million. Other sectors'
5.0 percent to Arab countries debt increased by, as well, by US$
(mainly Kuwait, Saudi Arabia***, 14.7 million. In contrast, the central
and the United Arab Emirates). and local government debt position
decreased by US$ 165.4 million and
banks' by US$ 31.7 million.

Chart (4) External Debt by Creditor Chart (6) External Debt by Debtor
End of September 2012
share in total increase/decrease

(US$ mn) during July/Septem ber

Egy ptian USA 2000
bonds and 8.0%
France 1500
notes 8.4%
7.5% 1000 693.5 365.9 517.8
500 68.9
International 0 189.0 14.7
organizations
Japan -500 (3.9) (165.4) (31.7)
32.7% 11.9% -1000 (65.3)

Germany (122.6)
9.8%
Other -1500 (1027.6)
countries United
Kingdom -2000
8.5%
Long Term Arab 3.9% 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013
Deposits Countries
4.3% Central & Local Gov ernment
5.0% Monetary Authority
Banks
_____________________________________ Other Sectors

∗ Including Egypt’s allocation of SDRs by the IMF. ______________________________________________
∗∗∗ Does not include the US$ 1.5 billion from the Saudi Fund
∗∗ International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(IBRD), European Investment Bank (EIB), African for Development which is classified as a long term deposit
Development Fund (ADF), African Development Bank (US$ 1.0 billion) and a 5-year Treasury bond (US$ 500
(AfDB). million).

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 10

F- External Debt Indicators* % Chart (7)
25 External Debt Indicators
External debt as a percentage of 20
GDP declined to 11.9 percent at end 15 July/September
of September 2012, compared with 10
13.2 percent a year earlier. In July/ 12.4 19.6
September 2012/13, debt service to 5 10.0
current receipts (including transfers) 10.3
fell to 7.4 percent, from 7.5 percent a 8.8 8.5
year earlier. 7.5 7.4

The ratio of short-term debt to net 0 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
international reserves (NIR) rose 2009/10
from 12.4 percent to 19.6 percent,
owing to the 37.3 percent drop in Debt Service / Current Receipts (including transfers)
NIR at end – September 2012, Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves
compared to September 2011. Short-term Debt / Total External Debt
However, its ratio to total debt fell to Debt Service / Exports of Goods and Services
8.5 percent from 8.8 percent. The
external debt per capita increased to % (US$)
US$ 393.5 in September 2012 from
US$ 390.3 in September 2011. 100 440

Medium- and long-term debt service 90
payments increased by US$ 84.6 80 77.6 430
million to US$ 1.3 billion, as a result
of the US$ 95.3 million increase in 70 420
principal repayments, to reach US$ 74.4
1.1 billion and the US$ 10.7 million
decrease in interest payments, to 60 410
US$ 224.4 million.
50 393.5 400
40
390.3

30 390

20 13.2 11.9 380
10

0 370
2009/10
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Government External Debt / External Debt
External Debt /GDP
External Debt per capita (US$) (right axis)

_______________________

* For more indicators, refer to appendix I, table No 6.

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 11

G - External Debt Sustainability • The ratio of debt stock to
exports of goods and services
Egypt’s external debt position is increased from 64.4 percent in
generally considered sustainable 2008/09 to 71.0 percent , 71.4
over the medium- and long- term percent and 71.9 percent in
periods. Egypt does not have 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12
currently any repayment difficulties respectively; it is still far
and all current debt burden annual below the 100-200 percent
indicators for assessing sustain- threshold for that ratio.
ability are well below the debt
burden indicative thresholds • Although no comparison has
recommended by the World Bank, as been made between the
follows: indicative thresholds over a
20-year projection period and
• The ratio of debt service the NPV of all future debt
payments as a percent of burden ratios due on the
exports of goods and services external debt, the data on
improved from 6.4 percent in medium- & long-term public
2008/09 to 5.5 percent in and publicly guaranteed debt
2009/10 before it went up service over the period of
slightly to 5.7 percent in 2012-2050 shows no possi-
2010/11 and 6.1 percent in bility to reach the thresholds.
2011/12. It lies far below the (See the following chart and
least threshold, ranging table).
between 15-25 percent.
US$ Chart (8)
• Moreover, the ratio of external Total Medium - and Long - Term
debt stock as a percentage of 5000 Public and Publicly Guaranteed
GDP improved to 15.9 4500
percent, 15.2 percent and 13.5 4000 External Debt Service
percent in 2009/10, 2010/11 3500
and 2011/12, respectively, 3000
com-pared to 31.1 percent in 2500
2004/05. It is well below the 2000
least threshold, ranging 1500
between 30-50 percent. 1000
500

0

2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050

Principal Interest Total

Egypt's External Debt Sustainability Ratios

Year /Period Debt Stock Debt Stock Debt Debt Service Short- NIR to Per Capita
to GDP to Exports Service to to Exports term Debt External
Debt to Service
GDP NIR Debt
(USD)

2004/05 31.1 100.3 2.9 9.4 9.6 714.4 402.6

2005/06 27.6 82.4 2.8 8.5 7.1 754.1 401.7

2006/07 22.8 70.4 2.2 6.9 5.1 972.6 398.5

2007/08 20.1 59.9 1.5 4.6 7.3 1,331.8 450.0

2008/09 16.9 64.4 1.7 6.4 6.8 1,003.6 418.6

2009/10 15.9 71.0 1.2 5.5 8.4 1,345.6 399.2

2010/11 15.2 71.4 1.2 5.7 10.4 949.0 413.6

2011/12 13.5 71.9 1.1 6.1 12.4 538.4 389.7

July/Sept.-12 11.9 275.7 1.9 10.3 19.6 1157.8 393.5

Indicative 30 - 40 - 100 - 150 - — 15 - 20 - 25 — — —
thresholds* 50 200

* Indicative thresholds recommended by the World Bank and IMF, degree of risk: "low - medium -high".

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 12

H- Annual External Debt Indicators Egypt’s net international reserves,
and Global Comparison including foreign currency assets of
the CBE, gold, SDRs and reserve
Egypt’s external debt is currently not position in the Fund, stood at US$
a source of concern and its position 15.0 billion as at end - September
remains comfortable. Key external 2012, providing a cover exceeding 43
debt indicators have shown a percent to outstanding external debt.
perceptible improvement over the Although such cover was well over
period of 2003/04-2011/2012, and hundred percent as at end-June 2010,
further till September 2012, though it was less than 50 percent as at end-
the size of debt has increased over June 2004.
the entire period. Improvement in the
ratios of debt service payments to Chart (11)
exports of goods and services, as well (US$ mn) NIR coverage to External Debt S tock
as to current receipts shows that
Egypt’s ability to service external 40000
debt has substantially enhanced over
that period. Similarly, ratios of debt 35000
to GDP and per capita external debt
have bettered over the years. 30000

Chart (9) 25000Se2222222222221p0000000000009t.1010000000009210897653241090/////////////1110010000000012298076543210
Actual External Debt S ervice Payments
(US$ mn) 20000

6000 15000

5000 10000
4000
5000
3000
2000 0

1000 NIR External Debt Stock
0
External debt stock expanded at a
Se1222222222222p9000000000000t.9000000010010292351014687900/////////////1000100000001120342215679801 slower pace than the GDP growth
over the period 1999/2000-2011/12.
External Debt Serv ices Principal Pay ments As a result, external debt to GDP
Interest Pay ments ratio, after rising sharply from 28.2
percent in 1999/2000 to 42.5 percent
Although some other external debt in 2002/03, dropped over time to 13.5
indicators, like the share of short- percent during 2011/12, and further
term debt in total external debt and to to 11.9 percent at end - September
NIR, have recently been increasing, 2012.
they are still quite favorable.
Chart (12)
Chart (10) 45
40
14 35
12 30
10 25
20
8 15
6 10
4 5
2 0
0
External debt / GDP%
Se2222222122222p0000000900000t.1910000000000219809547602130/////////////1101100000000022015809127643
Se2222222122222p0000090000000t.0001010090000282690703119540/////////////1000100010010029370814216205

Debt service / Exports (goods & services)%

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 13

In terms of international comparison, and third ratios are well below the
the following is the recent data averages of those prevailing in other
disseminated by the IMF in its economic regions, while the second
periodical report, "World Economic ratio puts Egypt ahead of the Central
Outlook", comparing Egypt's key and Eastern Europe and Latin
debt indicators with those prevailing American and Caribbean regions and
in other regional country groups. As behind developing Asia, MENA, and
it can be seen from the table, the first Sub-Saharan Africa regions.

External Debt Indicators for Regional Country Groups

Key External Debt indicators (%)

Region Debt stock/GDP Debt stock/ Debt Service/
Exports of goods & services Exports of goods & services

2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012 2010 2011 2012

Central & Eastern 65.8 62.3 66.5 178.8 155.1 155.2 59.0 55.5 54.9
Europe

Developing Asia 15.5 15.6 16.1 50.0 50.2 53.9 18.9 21.1 24.5

Latin America & 22.0 21.8 24.0 107.7 100.1 109.1 31.4 30.1 28.8
Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa 23.4 22.6 23.6 67.1 59.7 63.8 12.1 10.2 11.2

Middle East & North 31.2 27.9 27.0 64.1 52.5 51.9 17.5 14.3 13.6
Africa

Egypt* 15.9 15.2 13.5 71.0 71.4 71.9 5.5 5.7 6.1

Source: World Economic Outlook Report, October 2012, International Monetary Fund, (Actual

indicators of 2009-2010 and projections of 2012).

* According to Egypt's BOP data, Central Bank of Egypt.

Section IV
Exchange Rate Developments

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position 15

Exchange Rate Developments
(i) Inter-bank Rate1:
The decline in the Egyptian pound

In Q1, 2012/13, the weighted average against the dollar was a natural result

of the US dollar in the Egyptian of the drop in foreign currency

inter-bank market appreciated by reserves in Egypt which led to a

about 0.6 percent against the decrease in the supply of dollar in the

Egyptian pound (EGP). This brought domestic market during the reporting

the rate to EGP 6.094 at end- Sept. period, amid the current political

2012, from EGP 6.059 at end- June. events.

(ii) Market Rate: Chart (1):Exchange Rate of USD & Euro against EGP 6.5
End-period 6.0
The Egyptian pound depreciated 5.5
against foreign currencies. According 9.0 5.0
to the Forex market (buying price), 4.5
the Egyptian pound depreciated 8.5 4.0
against the pound Sterling by 4.6
percent, the euro by 4.0 percent, the 8.0
Swiss franc by 3.4 percent, the
Japanese yen (100 yens) by 2.5 7.5
percent, the Chinese yuan by 1.7
percent, the US dollar by 0.6 percent, 7.0
each of the US dollar, the Saudi riyal
and the UAE dirham by 0.6 percent, 6.5 Euro market rate(buying price) (left axis)
and the Kuwaiti dinar by 0.5 percent. USD Interbank rate(average)

USD market rate(buying price)

6.0

Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/2013

_________________

1 The inter-bank foreign exchange market was
launched, for the first time in Egypt, during
December 2004.

Statistical Section

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position

Appendix I

Table Page

I- Balance of Payments

BOP Current Account …………………………………… 1 19

BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.) …………… 2 20
II- International Investment Position (IIP) 3 21
III- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 22
IV- External Liquidity 4
23
NIR & NFA at Banks ……………………………………. 5
V- External Debt 6 24
7 25
External Debt by Type …………………………………... 26
External Debt Indicators ………………………………… 8
External Debt by Debtor ………………………………… 27
VI- Exchange Rate Developments
Exchange Rates ( in LE per foreign currency unit )

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 19

Table (1) Balance of Payments

July/Sept. (US$ mn)

Trade Balance 2011/2012* 2012/2013*
Exports** -7823.1 -6879.6
Petroleum 6764.8 6947.9
Other Exports 3233.7 3372.7
Imports** 3531.1 3575.2
Petroleum -14587.9 -13827.5
Other Imports -2872.6 -2914.8
-11715.3 -10912.7
Services (Net) 1621.6 1697.4
Receipts 5411.1 5647.4
Transportation, of which : 2076.3 2236.6
1360.4 1288.4
Suez Canal 2701.7 2640.2
Travel 56.0 56.9
Investment Income 18.7 81.3
Government Receipts 558.4 632.4
Other 3789.5 3950.0
Payments 312.4 435.0
Transportation 626.8 724.0
Travel 1785.4 1624.7
Investment Income, of which 187.0 175.7
321.0 215.8
Interest Paid 743.9 950.5
Government Expenditures -6201.5 -5182.2
Other 4026.4 4903.3
Balance of Goods & Services 4010.5 4862.9
Transfers 15.9 40.4
Private Transfers (Net) -2175.1 -278.9
Official Transfers (Net)
Current Account Balance

* Preliminary.
** Include free zones exports and imports.

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 20

Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.)

July/Sept. (US$ mn)

Capital & Financial Account 2011/2012* 2012/2013*
Capital Account 502.4 443.9
Financial Account -20.5 -38.6
Direct Investment Abroad 522.9 482.5
Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) -79.0 -25.3
Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) 440.1 108.1
Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: -63.0 -1.1
-1729.9 -327.1
Bonds -325.3 -275.5
Other Investment (Net) 1954.7 727.9
286.7 -435.4
Net Borrowing -459.0 -508.1
M&L-Term Loans (Net) 313.2 272.0
-772.2 -780.1
Drawings 3.8 -1.1
Repayments 24.3 9.2
MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) -20.5 -10.3
Drawings 741.9 73.8
Repayments 1911.9 1007.9
ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) 15.5 -10.1
Other Assets 2421.3 723.1
Central Bank -524.9 294.9
Banks -243.9 155.4
Other -4.4 503.1
Other Liabilities -239.5 -347.7
Central Bank -683.4 -683.7
Banks -2356.1 -518.7
Net Errors & Omissions 2356.1 518.7
Overall Balance
Change in CBE Reserve Assets, Increase (-)

* Preliminary.

Table (2) International Investmen

End of December 2007 December 2008 D

Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Asse

Total 76409.2 84729.0 67351.2 94378.9 7270
1-Direct investment 1780.5 50502.8 3700.7 59997.4 4272

2-Portfolio investments 2779.2 4032.0 1947.1 4432.9 4120

Equity security 1098.1 0.0 910.8 1495.0 965
Debt security 1681.1 4032.0 1036.3 2937.9 3154
3-Other investments 40627.6 30194.2 28656.2 29948.6 3083
1005.1 1460.0
Trade credits 1485.5 1777.0 3177
General government 1005.1 1460.0
Other sectors 1485.5 1005.1 1777.0 1460.0 3177
Short-term 489.0 27989.2 594.3 27143.6 1132
996.5 310.6 1182.7 209.9 2045
Loans 310.6 209.9
Monetary authorities 36355.4 18605.1 25442.8 23637.5 2598
Other long-term 22061.4 18605.1 11794.8 23637.5 1262
General government 14294.0 1388.4 13648.0 677.7 1336
Long-term 2786.7 1358.4 1436.4 640.7 1672
Banks 2786.7 1436.4 1672
Long-term 2786.7 30.0 1436.4 37.0 1672
Short-term 7685.1 2618.5
Other sectors 31221.9 7685.1 33047.2 2618.5 0.0
Long-term 1008.5 1139.0
1008.5 1139.0 3346
Currency and deposits
Banks 191.4 206.0
Other sectors
191.4 206.0
Other assets 191.4 206.0
Monetary authorities
Long-term
Short-term
General government
Banks
Short-term
Other sectors

4-Reserve assets
* Preliminary.

**According to a methodological change recommended by the IMF and agreed internationally, this figure represents Egypt's tot

nt Position (IIP) Central Bank of Egypt - External Position

December 2009 December 2010 (US$ million)
December 2011 *

ets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities

01.8 102438.6 79154.2 123261.2 57170.9 110385.7
2.9 66709.0 5448.4 73094.6 6073.9 72611.9
0.2 4108.2 9691.4 18241.1 3368.6 6526.0
5.7 1756.9 961.0 3481.3 796.1 2770.1
4.5 2351.3 8730.4 14759.8 2572.5 3755.9
39.3 31621.4 28595.7 31925.5 30357.7 31247.8
1291.2 1869.5 2123.3
0.0 0.0

7.5 1291.2 0.0 1869.5 0.0 2123.3
1291.2 1869.5 2123.3
7.5 27659.4 3552.8 27392.8 2756.1 26847.2
2.5 142.2 0.0 0.0 263.7
5.0 142.2 80.1 263.7
23999.5 0.0 80.1 0.0 23273.3
9.4 23999.5 23767.6 23273.3
29.4 661.9 3552.8 23767.6 2756.1 668.5
60.0 654.4 1832.2 705.2 1590.0 668.5
2.4 1720.6 705.2 1166.1
2.4 7.5 0.0 0.0
2.4 2855.8 0.0 2839.9 0.0 2641.7
2855.8 2839.9 2641.7
1262.3 24268.0 1279.5 26659.8 902.3
1262.3 11603.0 1279.5 13769.8 902.3
12665.0 12890.0
1408.5 1383.7 1375.0
1408.5** 774.9 1383.7** 941.8 1375.0**
1408.5** 774.9 1383.7** 941.8 1375.0**

774.9 941.8

0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

69.4 35418.7 17370.7
tal SDR allocations.
21

Table (3) Egypt's Coordinated Portfolio Investment

Breakdown of Portfolio Investment Assets by

Equities Long-term
Insurance Sector
Country of non-resident issuers Banks Total Banks Insur
41.9 4.8 41.9
United States 279.7 284.5 1006.9
Saudi Arabia 43.3 0.5 43.3 15.8
United Kingdom 10.2 141.2
Cayman Islands 39.9 39.9 138.3
Swaziland 115.7 15.5 115.7 3.2
International Organizations
Eritrea 3.3 3.3 75.9
Ethiopia
Qatar 3.0 3.0 46.4
Turkey 0.2 0.2 5.5
India 52.1 52.6
Bahrain 16.5 16.5 11.6
France 52.2 52.2 25.9
Italy 12.2 12.2
Sudan 120.6 130.8 76.0
Other Countries
780.6 796.1 1546.7
Total

t Survey (CPIS) at End of December 2011 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position

Country of Residence of the Issuer

(US$ million)

m debt securities Short-term debt securities

Total

rance Sector Total Banks Insurance Sector Total

1006.9 526.0 526.0 1574.8
15.8 37.3 37.3 337.6
141.2 2.2 2.2 186.7
138.3 138.3
3.2 76.0 76.0 119.1
115.7
75.9 9.3 9.3 88.5
77.7 77.7 77.7
46.4 26.8 26.8 73.2
5.5 62.2 62.2 70.7
68.8 68.8 69.0
11.6 64.2
25.9 20.1 20.1 62.5
3.2 3.2 55.4
76.0 36.6 36.6 48.8 22
79.6 79.6 286.4
1546.7
1025.8 1025.8 3368.6

Table (4) :Net International Reserves & Net

End of June 2010 Sept.

Net International Reserves(1-2) 35221 355
1- Gross Official Reserves 35248 355
Gold 2180 218
SDRs 1210 126
Foreign Currencies 31774 320
Loans to IMF
2- Reserve Liabilities 84 89
27 27
Banks' Net Foreign Assets
Assets 16184 211
Liabilities 21703 280
5519 686

t Foreign Assets at Banking System Central Bank of Egypt - External Position

(US$ mn)

2010 June 2011 Sept. 2011 June 2012 Sept. 2012

534 26564 24009 15534 15043
561 26593 24033 15556 15068
80 2743 2743 3303 3303
63 1311 1281 1243 1263
029 22450 19922 10926 10416
9
7 89 87 84 86
29 24 22 25

160 17809 15628 13462 13086 23
027 23312 20891 18947 18223
67 5503 5263 5485 5137

Table (5) Ex

End of September 2004 2005 2006

Total External Debt* 29473.9 29674.4 28950.
1- Medium & Long -term debt : 27448.8 27937.9 27314.
16166.8 15373.3 14965.
Rescheduled bilateral debt ** 7958.7 7707.0 7524.4
ODA 8208.1 7666.3 7440.9
Non-ODA 4404.6 4272.7 4298.8
3271.4 3528.6 3601.4
Other bilateral debt 1133.2
Paris Club countries 5018.8 744.1 697.4
Other countries 1175.9 5088.1 5218.9
747.4 868.6
International & regional Organizations 596.8 1846.1 1578.8
Suppliers' & buyers' credits 0.0 500.0 300.0
Egyptian bonds and notes 85.9 110.3
Long- term deposits 1736.5 83.8
Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) 2025.1 732.9 1636.7
2- Short-term debt 1254.9 1003.6 611.3
Deposits 770.2 1025.4
Other short-term facilities

Source: Central Bank of Egypt.
+ Provisional
* The difference from World Bank data is in short-term debt .
** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, 1991.

xternal Debt by type

6 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (US$ mn) Central Bank of Egypt - External Position

.9 31923.9 32481.4 32399.2 34699.9 33997.9 2012+
31829.0 31012.0
.2 30147.0 29830.7 29970.3 12897.9 12086.7 34719.9
7235.6 7092.8 31775.3
.3 15068.8 14385.8 14067.8 5662.3 4993.9 10626.3
4976.5 5208.1 6576.4
4 7524.4 7410.1 7538.0 4072.5 4155.3 4049.9
1052.8 5239.9
9 7544.4 6975.7 6529.8 904.0 10794.6 4068.0
10405.0 1171.9
8 4492.1 4719.8 5021.5 409.5 11356.3
404.3 2495.6
4 3754.2 3890.6 4152.9 3087.9 416.7
0.0 2625.2
4 737.9 829.2 868.6 0.0 17.5 1500.0
57.4 2985.9
9 7084.2 7270.7 8513.2 2870.9 947.4 10.9
1121.4 2038.5 2944.6
6 794.8 750.9 367.6 1749.5 943.0
2001.6
8 2633.2 2620.6 1916.6

0 0.0 0.0 0.0

73.9 82.9 83.6

7 1776.9 2650.7 2428.9

3 636.6 983.5 1326.6

4 1140.3 1667.2 1102.3

24

Table (6) External De

July / September 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

External Debt / Exports (G & S) % 404.2 342.9 271.1
Debt Service * (Principal & Interest) (US$ mn.) 721.9 869.0 1153.6
Debt Service / Exports (G & S) % 10.0
9.9 10.8

Debt Service / Current Receipts % 8.6 8.7 9.5

Interest / Exports (G & S) % 2.7 2.3 2.2

External Debt / GDP (at current market prices) 34.1 27.6 22.3

Short-term Debt / External Debt 6.9 5.9 5.7

Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves 13.8 8.2 6.8

External Debt per capita (US$) 409.9 402.8 385.9

* Includes interest payments on US dollar-denominated bonds and notes held by non-residen

ebt Indicators

7 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 (%) Central Bank of Egypt - External Position
208.6 277.8 271.1 279.2 2012/13
265.3 1007.0 932.8 995.1 1214.7
6.5 8.0 7.8 10.0 275.7
6 833.1 5.7 6.6 6.2 7.5 1299.3
1.9 2.2 1.8 1.9
6.9 17.0 14.7 14.4 13.2 10.3
8.1 7.5 8.3 8.8 7.4
5.9 7.6 7.2 8.1 12.4 1.8
431.2 430.1 411.1 390.3 11.9
2.1 8.5
19.6
20.2 393.5

5.6

5.9

425.5 25

nts.

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 26

Table (7) External Debt by Debtor

End of June 2012 % September 2012 * % (US$ mn (1))

External Debt Change (-) %

Total Medium- & Long-Term 34384.5 100.0 34719.9 100.0 335.4 1.0
Total Short-Term
31482.6 91.5 31775.3 91.5 292.7 0.9
Central & Local Government 2901.9 8.5 2944.6 8.5 42.7 1.5
Medium- & Long-Term
Bonds & Notes 25594.4 74.4 25429.0 73.2 (165.4) (0.6)
Loans 25594.4 74.4 25429.0 73.2 (165.4) (0.6)
Currency and Deposits 2900.7 8.4 2625.2 7.5 (275.5) (9.5)
Other Liabilities 22693.7 66.0 22803.8 65.7 110.1 0.5
Short-Term
Money Market Instruments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Loans
Currency and Deposits 2612.0 7.5 3129.8 9.0 517.8 19.8
Other Liabilities 2612.0 7.5 3129.8 9.0 517.8 19.8

Monetary Authority 254.8 0.7 244.2 0.7 (10.6) (4.2)
Medium- & Long-Term 1000.0 2.9 1500.0 4.3 500.0 0.0
Bonds & Notes 1357.2 3.9 1385.6 4.0 28.4 1.0
Loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Currency and Deposits 0.0 0.0
Other Liabilities
Short-Term 1624.4 4.8 1592.7 4.6 (31.7) (2.0)
Money Market Instruments 710.7 2.1 649.7 1.9 (61.0) (8.6)
Loans
Currency and Deposits 710.7 2.1 649.7 1.9 (61.0) (8.6)
Other Liabilities
913.7 2.7 943.0 2.7 29.3 3.2
Banks
Medium- & Long-Term Loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Bonds & Notes 913.7 2.7 943.0 2.7 29.3 3.2
Loans 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Currency and Deposits 0.0 0.0 13.2 14.7 0.3
Other Liabilities 13.3 4568.4 7.4 1.3 0.1
Short-Term Loans 4553.7 7.5 2566.8
Money Market Instruments 2565.5
Loans
Currency and Deposits 2565.5 7.5 2566.8 7.4 1.3 0.1
Other Liabilities 1988.2 5.8 2001.6 5.8 13.4 0.7
1988.2 5.8 2001.6 5.8 13.4 0.7
Other Sectors
Medium- & Long-Term
Loans from Direct Investors
Bonds & Notes
Trade Credits
Loans
Currency and Deposits
Other Liabilities
Short-Term
Loans from Direct Investors
Money Market Instruments
Trade Credits
Loans
Currency and Deposits
Other Liabilities

* Provisional.
(1) Using Exchange Rate as at 31/9/2012.

Table (8) Exchange Rates (In Egypti

End of
First: Interbank Rates*
Minimum
Maximum
Weighted average
Second: Market Rates
US Dollar
Euro
Pound Sterling
Swiss Franc
100 Japanese Yen
Saudi Riyal
Kuwaiti Dinar
UAE Dirham
Chinese Yuan

Source: CBE daily exchange rates.
* The interbank rates were launched on December 23, 2004.

ian pound per foreign currency unit ) Central Bank of Egypt - External Position

June 2012 September 2012

6.0580 6.0925
6.0620 6.0960
6.0590 6.0939

Buy Sell Buy Sell

6.0455 6.0748 6.0801 6.1104

7.5152 7.5522 7.8153 7.8567

9.3971 9.4439 9.8278 9.8798

6.2557 6.2893 6.4668 6.5031

7.6111 7.6509 7.8009 7.8438

1.6120 1.6199 1.6212 1.6293

21.5119 21.6548 21.6257 21.7412

1.6457 1.6541 1.6551 1.6638

0.9509 0.9556 0.9674 0.9724

27

Central Bank of Egypt – External Position

Appendix II

Table Page

I- Medium - and Long -Term External Debt

A- Outstanding Stock …………………………………………………….. 1 31

1. Public and Publicly Guaranteed By Creditor Country …………… 2 33

a. Paris Club Bilateral Debt ………………………………………….. 3 35

(1) Rescheduled Debt…………………………………………….. 4 36

(2) Non Rescheduled Debt…………………………………........... 5 37

b. Supplier's Credit………………………………………………........ 6 39

c. Other Bilateral Debt…………………………………………........ 7 40

d. Multilateral Agencies……………………………………………… 8 41

2. Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed ……………………………….......... 9 43

B. Outstanding External Short-Term Debt ……………………………........ 10 44

C. Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Loans Signed ………………. 11 45

II- Projected Medium - and Long -Term External Debt Service 12 46
48
Public and Publicly Guaranteed……………………………………………. 13 50
1. Paris Club Debt…………...…………………………………….......... 51
a. Rescheduled Debt ………………………………………….…....... 14 52
b. Non Rescheduled Debt………… ………………………………... 53
2. Supplier's Credit………………………………………………........ 15 54
3. Other Bilateral Debt……………………………………………......... 56
4. Multilateral Institutions………………………………………............. 16 57
5. Projected Guaranteed Notes …………………………………………. 58
6. Projected Sovereign Notes …………………………………………... 17 59
7. Projected saudi Bond …………………………………………………
8. Projected Deposits …………………………………………………… 18 60

19

20
21
22

III- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus 23
US Dollar

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 31

Table ( 1 )

Outstanding Stock as at End of September

Total Debt (US$ million)

2009 2010 2011 2012

1- Medium- and Long-Term Public 29,886.64 31,771.58 30,994.46 31,764.51
& Publicly Guaranteed Debt 18,521.09 17,347.62 16,627.57 15,092.35

A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt

1-Rescheduled Debt 14,067.81 12,897.94 12,086.69 10,626.35
2-Non-Rescheduled Debt (1) 4,453.28 4,449.68 4,540.88 4,466.00

B- Supplier's Credit 67.48 27.05 23.88 18.71
1,171.92
C. Other Bilateral Debt 868.31 904.04 1,052.79 11,356.32

D. Multilateral Institutions (2) 8,513.15 10,405.01 10,794.63 0.00
1,250.00
E. Sovereign Bond 266.17 214.58 0.00
F. Guaranteed Notes 1,250.00 1,250.00 1,250.00 0.00
G. Egyptian Pound Euro Bond 400.44 387.59 322.73 875.21
H. Sovereign Notes 1,235.69 922.86 500.00
I. Saudi Bond 0.00 1,500.00
J. Deposits (3) 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 10.85
2,944.55
2- Medium and Long-Term 83.64 57.46 17.50 942.96
Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 2,001.59
34,719.91
3- Short-Term Debt 2,428.93 2,870.86 2,985.90
Deposits (Non-Residents) 1,326.62 1,121.36 947.38
Other 1,102.31 1,749.50 2,038.52

Grand Total 32,399.21 34,699.90 33,997.86

Using end of period exchange rate.
(1) Includes US$ 398.07 million buyer credits .
(2) Includes US$ 1,386 million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries. Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 mn.
(3) Representing Saudi & Qatari deposits amounting to US$ 1000 and 500 million, respectively .

Figure 1-1

( US$bn ) External Debt
Outstanding Stock as at End of September
35.5
34.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
33.5
32.5
31.5
30.5
29.5
28.5
27.5
26.5
25.5

2006

Figure 1-2 Medium- and Long
Public and Publicly Guarante
Figure 1-2 Outstanding Stock as at End o

Deposits Other Bilateral Debt Sovereign No
4.72% 3.69% 2.76%

Saudi Bond
1.57%

Guaranteed Notes
3.94%

Multilateral Institutions
35.75%

g-Term Central Bank of Egypt - External Position
eed External Debt
of September 2012

otes

Supplier's Credit
0.06%

Paris Club Bilateral Debt
47.51%

32

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 33

Table ( 2 )

Medium- and Long-Term
Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Outstanding Stock as at End of September

Total Debt (US$ million){1}

2009 2010 2011 2012

Creditor Countries 3,993.24 4,141.67 4,276.68 4,026.09
3,930.61 3,622.61 3,550.19 3,330.97
Japan 4,096.56 3,590.45 3,323.71 2,849.78
Germany 3,421.35 3,171.16 2,920.96 2,666.45
France 672.75 705.65 825.19 933.76
United States 721.81 650.40 588.44 535.79
Kuwait 526.35 462.35 405.10 341.93
Spain 395.14 375.75 358.96 287.45
Italy 474.68 397.31 345.52 274.85
Switzerland 275.59 268.08 257.85 244.47
Austria 189.25 180.94 164.82 152.53
Denmark 125.11 132.34 143.13 136.80
Canada 184.57 167.08 146.92 131.10
China 160.43 152.42 132.76 114.56
United Kingdom 100.26
Australia 91.68 89.54 82.50
The Netherlands 28.41 36.64 59.05 78.76
Saudi Arabia 79.86 66.93 58.67 45.44
Belgium 37.45 29.41 25.42 22.60
United Arab Emirates 31.62 29.58 25.76 22.33
Sweden 6.93 6.26 5.57 4.82
Norway 4.60 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bahrain 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lebanon

Multilateral Institutions 8,513.15 10,405.01 10,794.63 11,356.32 {2}
1,826.08 2,542.85 2,777.75 3,006.42
IBRD 2,270.20 2,110.80 1,913.61 1,829.05
European Investment Bank 1,086.23 1,244.05 1,256.12 1,409.85
African Development Bank 1,186.64 1,408.09 1,385.58
IMF 0.00 1,276.21 1,332.86 1,347.58
Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1,199.42 1,381.31 1,332.53 1,264.87
IDA 1,443.39 343.54
Arab Monetary Fund 152.02 77.20 29.16 227.25
African Development Fund 246.50 239.94 239.38 183.94
Islamic Development Bank 61.14 131.53 115.53
OPEC 52.08 85.74 102.88 107.11
International Fund for Agricultural Development 71.70 114.13 112.16 100.00
Arab International Bank 119.97 20.00 100.00
Arab Trade Financing Program 0.00 65.00 58.56 35.60
45.56

Notes, Bonds and Deposits 1,916.61 3,087.86 2,495.59 4,125.21 {3}
0.00 0.00 0.00 1,500.00
Deposits 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,000.00
Saudi deposits 0.00 0.00 0.00 500.00
Qatari deposits 1,250.00
1,250.00 1,250.00 1,250.00 875.21
Guaranteed Notes 0.00 1,235.69 922.86 500.00
Sovereign Notes 0.00
Saudi Bond 0.00 0.00 0.00
Egyptian Pound Euro Bond 400.44 387.59 322.73 0.00
Sovereign Bond 266.17 214.58
0.00

Grand Total 29,886.64 31,771.58 30,994.46 31,764.51

(1) Using end of period exchange rate.
(2) Includes US$ 1,386 million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries, Egypt’s share is SDR 898.45 mn.
(3) Representing Saudi & Qatari deposits amounting to US$ 1000 and US$ 500 million, respectively .

Figure 2

Medium- and Long
Public and Publicly Guarante
Outstanding Stock as at End

Guaranteed Notes Kuwait
4% 3%

Japan
13%

Germany
10 %

United States France
8% 9%

g-Term Central Bank of Egypt - External Position
eed External Debt
of September 2012

Deposits
5%

Multilateral Institutions
36%

Other Countries
12%

34

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 35

Table ( 3 ) {1}
Medium- and Long-Term
Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country
Paris Club Bilateral Debt
Outstanding Stock as at End of September

(US$ million){2}

Country Total Debt

Japan 2009 2010 2011 2012
Germany
France 3,960.15 4,124.27 4,261.98 4,015.76
United States 3,922.33 3,622.61 3,550.19 3,330.98
Spain 4,080.22 3,590.45 3,323.71 2,849.78
Italy 3,421.35 3,171.16 2,920.96 2,666.45
Switzerland 721.82 650.40 588.44 535.79
Austria 526.15 461.40 404.19 341.79
Denmark 395.14 375.75 358.96 287.45
Canada 474.68 397.31 345.52 274.85
United Kingdom 275.19 267.97 257.85 244.47
Australia 180.60 172.35 156.55 144.29
The Netherlands 184.51 167.08 146.92 131.09
Belgium 160.43 152.42 132.76 114.56
Sweden 100.26
Norway 91.68 89.54 82.50
79.86 66.93 58.67 45.44
31.47 29.58 25.76 22.33
6.93 6.26 5.57 4.82

Grand Total 18,521.09 17,347.62 16,627.57 15,092.35

{1} This table sums up tables 4 and 5.
{2} Using end of period exchange rate.

Figure 3

Medium- and Long-Term
Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Paris Club Bilateral Debt
Outstanding Stock as at End of September

( US$ bn ) 20.0

15.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

10.0

5.0

0.0
2006

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 36

Table ( 4 )
Medium- and Long-Term
Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country
Paris Club Bilateral Debt

Rescheduled Debt
Outstanding Stock as at End of September

(US$ million){1}

Country Total Debt

2009 2010 2011 2012

Japan 3,033.35 3,052.92 3,090.58 2,810.93
United States 2,846.21 2,641.19 2,436.16 2,219.08
France 3,372.88 2,837.03 2,482.03 1,998.57
Germany 2,191.25 2,005.18 1,958.92 1,805.64
Spain 554.02 496.84 437.19 372.06
Switzerland 380.39 359.74 339.26 270.46
Austria 460.64 385.29 337.10 270.27
Italy 342.91 307.07 270.78 230.66
Canada 180.60 172.35 156.55 144.29
United Kingdom 184.51 167.03 146.88 131.06
Australia 160.43 152.42 132.76 114.56
Denmark 148.69 132.15 124.12 108.08
The Netherlands 100.20
Belgium 91.68 89.54 82.50
Sweden 73.33 61.35 53.61 41.14
Norway 31.47 29.44 25.64 22.23
6.93 6.26 5.57 4.82

Grand Total 14,067.81 12,897.94 12,086.69 10,626.35
{1} Using end of period exchange rate.

Figure 4

Medium- and Long-Term
Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Paris Club Bilateral Debt
Rescheduled Debt

Outstanding Stock as at End of September

( US$ bn ) 20.0

15.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

10.0

5.0

0.0
2006

Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 37

Table ( 5 )
Medium- and Long-Term

Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country

Paris Club Bilateral Debt
Non-Rescheduled Debt

Outstanding Stock as at End of September

(US$ million){1}

Total Debt

Country

2009 2010 2011 2012

Germany 1,731.08 1,617.43 1,591.27 1,525.34
Japan 926.80 1,071.35 1,171.40 1,204.83
France 707.34 753.42 841.68 851.21
United States 575.14 529.97 484.80 447.37
Spain 167.79 153.56 151.25 163.73
Denmark 126.50 135.82 133.73 136.39
Italy 183.24 154.33 133.41 111.13
Switzerland 14.75
Austria 14.04 16.01 19.70 16.99
Belgium 12.02 8.42 4.58
Sweden 6.54 5.58 5.06 4.30
United Kingdom 0.00 0.14 0.12 0.10
0.00 0.05 0.04 0.03
The Netherlands
0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00

Grand Total 4,453.28 4,449.68 4,540.88 4,466.00 *

{1} Using end of period exchange rate.
* Includes US$ 398.07 million buyer credits .

Figure 5-1

Medium- and Long-Term
Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt

Paris Club Bilateral Debt
Non-Rescheduled Debt

Outstanding Stock as at End of September

( US$ mn ) 4,600
4,550
4,500
4,450
4,400
4,350
4,300
4,250
4,200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Figure 5-2

Medium- and Long-Term
Public and Publicly Guaranteed Ex

Paris Club Bilateral Deb
Outstanding Stock as at End of Sept

Non-Rescheduled Debt
30%