Tewkesbury Borough Housing Land Supply July 2013

Tewkesbury Borough Housing Land Supply
July 2013

This note sets out Tewkesbury Borough’s housing land supply, the role of the Strategic Housing Land
Availability Assessment within it, and the assumptions included within the housing trajectory. It
highlights those sites included within Tewkesbury Borough’s housing land supply which are subject to
assumed build out rates. An updated note and housing trajectory will be updated biannually and
published along with the Annual Monitoring Report and Residential Land Availability reports. Two
housing land supply calculations are included which should be read in conjunction with the housing
trajectory on the final page.

Tewkesbury Borough’s five year supply consists of:

 Residential planning permissions on sites with more than five dwellings
 Residential planning permissions on sites with five dwellings or less, subject to a 90%

implementation rate
 Residential developments that are currently under construction
 Sites allocated for housing within the Tewkesbury Borough Local Plan to 2011
 Identified sites currently within the planning system considered to be deliverable over

the next five years.
 Sites assessed as deliverable by SHLAA with a demonstrable prospect of the site

coming forward and a reasonable chance of permission being granted.

The Role of the Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA)
The SHLAA assesses how much housing could be provided within the borough if the constraints
applied by adopted planning policy were removed. It does not allocate sites for development or
prejudice the council with regard to the grant of planning permission. In preparing the housing
trajectory, only those sites assessed as deliverable by the SHLAA with a demonstrable prospect of the
site coming forward and a reasonable chance of permission being granted have been included. As a
result, not all sites assessed as deliverable by the SHLAA have been included in the supply.

Tewkesbury Borough’s SHLAA is overseen by a developer panel. The purpose of the SHLAA Panel is
to establish the potential ‘deliverability’ of sites put forward for residential development. The panel
consists of representatives from Gloucester City Council, Cheltenham Borough Council and
Tewkesbury Borough Council, property experts such as local agents, developers and registered social
landlords.

The panel assesses sites in terms of their development potential (developability/deliverability) in
accordance with the definitions contained at Stages 6 and 7 of the Department of Community and
Local Government’s Guidance SHLAA Practice Guide, in order to establish the following:

 Availability of sites in terms of years (immediately, within 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years
or longer);

 Potential financial viability of sites;
 Suitability of the location;
 Any constraints on the site, including policy and physical infrastructure constraints/costs;
 Ownership issues; and
 Any other issues relating to a site.

Housing Delivery
The distribution of housing delivery over time has been informed in the first instance by monitoring
contact with developers carried out as part of routine annual monitoring of planning consents. In
addition, information regarding potential build out rates has been gathered from the SHLAA panel,
submissions to the SHLAA, developer meetings undertaken to inform the Gloucester, Cheltenham
Tewkesbury JCS Broad Location evidence base, development briefs, masterplans and planning officer
information.

Where no other information is available, the following assumptions, agreed by the SHLAA panel, are
made with regard to lead-in times and build out rates:

Lead in times
For sites under 100 dwellings, it is assumed that it will take one year to gain planning consent.
For sites over 100 dwellings it is assumed that 18 months will be required.

Build-out rates
It is assumed that for each developer on site, 25 dwellings can be built in the first year.
Thereafter, it is assumed that 50 dwellings per developer can be built per annum. This figure
will be multiplied by the number of developers on site.

The housing trajectory assumes these build out rates for the following sites:

Brockworth District Centre - Whittle Square, BR3 (Phase 2)
Farm Lane/Leckhampton Lane, SD2
DSDC Ashchurch
Homelands Farm, Bishop's Cleeve
Homelands Farm 2, Bishop's Cleeve
Cleevelands, Bishop's Cleeve
Invista, Brockworth
CRE Site, Stoke Orchard
Land at Greet Road, Winchcombe
Land between Greet Road and Gretton Road, Winchcombe

Deliverability Category
All the sites that form part of the supply have been classified into one of the following deliverability
categories:

A Dwellings on allocated sites with planning permission
B Dwellings on allocated sites without planning permission
C Dwellings on unallocated sites with planning permission
D Other deliverable dwellings
E Dwellings assessed as deliverable by SHLAA with a demonstrable prospect of the site

coming forward and a reasonable chance of permission being granted.

Five Year Supply Calculation
Five Year Supply = (X / Y) * 100

X = the amount of housing that can be built on deliverable sites for the 5 year period
(net additional dwellings)

Y = the planned housing provision required for the 5 year period
(net additional dwellings)

Planned Provision
Notwithstanding the ongoing work to determine housing requirements locally, the following
calculations have been provided as illustrations:

RSS Scenario
The planned housing delivery in the calculation provided below is taken from the Secretary of State’s

Proposed Modifications to the South West Regional Spatial Strategy (730 dwellings per annum).

1. Requirement (Y): Dwellings Totals
4,380 6,497
Y = Planned requirement + Historic Shortfall 2,993
2,117
o Planned requirement =730 dwellings per annum x 6 years
876
o Actual Delivery 1 April 2006 – 31 March 2013

o Historic Shortfall against RSS targets 2006 – 2013
= Historic Requirement – Actual Delivery
= 5,110 (730 x 7 years) – 2,993

o Total requirement 01 April 2013 to 31 March 2018
= Planned requirement + Historic Shortfall
= 4380 + 2117

o 2. Deliverable Supply (X):

A - Dwellings on allocated sites with planning permission

B - Dwellings on allocated sites without planning permission 328

C - Dwellings on unallocated sites with permission 1,979

D - Other deliverable dwellings 100

E – Assessed as deliverable by 2011/12 SHLAA 165

Total Deliverable Supply 3,448
3. Calculation (X/Y * 100)

Deliverable Supply x 100 = X x 100 = 3,448 x 100 53%
Total Requirement Y 6,496

2.7 Years Supply – Shortfall of 3,049 dwellings

Gloucestershire Structure Plan Scenario
The planned housing delivery in the calculation provided below is taken from an extrapolation of
annualised Structure Plan targets (495 dwellings per annum).

1. Requirement (Y): Dwellings Totals
2,970 5,218
Y = Planned requirement + Historic Shortfall 9,137
2,248
o Planned requirement = 495 dwellings per annum x 6 years
876
o Actual Delivery 1991 – 31 March 2012

o Historic Shortfall against Structure Plan targets 1991 – 2013
= Historic Requirement – Actual Delivery
= 11,385 (495 x 23 years) – 9,137

o Total requirement 01 April 2012 to 31 March 2017
= Planned requirement + Historic Shortfall
= 2,970 + 2,248

o 2. Deliverable Supply (X):

A - Dwellings on allocated sites with planning permission

B - Dwellings on allocated sites without planning permission 328

C - Dwellings on unallocated sites with permission 1,979

D - Other deliverable dwellings 100

E – Assessed as deliverable by 2011/12 SHLAA 165

Total Deliverable Supply 3,444
3. Calculation (X/Y * 100)

Deliverable Supply x 100 = X x 100 = 3,444 x 100 66%
Total Requirement Y 5,218

3.3 Years Supply – Shortfall of 1,770 dwellings

Details of sites contribution to the Deliverable Supply

Reference Site Name Deliv
Cate
HA 10 Garage Site Adjacent 88 -92, Northway AC1
MUA 1 Gilders Corner, Bishop's Cleeve, BI1 A
HA 1 Brockworth/Hucclecote (Cooper's Edge) BR1 A
HA 14 Brockworth District Centre - Whittle Square, BR3 (Phase 1) A
HA 14 Brockworth District Centre - Whittle Square, BR3 (Phase 2) A
HA 3 Watermead, Kennel Lane, Brockworth, BR6 B
HA 16 Farm Lane/Leckhampton Lane, SD2 A
HA 6 Noverton Lane/Mill Lane, Southam, SO1 B
A
MUA 2 Bishops Walk, Tewkesbury, TY3
HA 12 Bredon Rd, Tewkesbury, TY5 B
A
SUB 127 DSDC Ashchurch
SUB 53 Land at Northway Lane, Northway E
E
SUB 54 Land at Northway County Infant School, Northway.
E
Commitment M & G Sports Ground, Golden Yolk and Middle Farm, Badgeworth C

Commitment Homelands Farm, Bishop's Cleeve C
Commitment Homelands Farm 2, Bishop's Cleeve C
Commitment Cleevelands, Bishop's Cleeve C
Commitment 2/2A/2B Mill House & 2A-7A Mill Parade, Bishop's Cleeve C
Commitment Former Police Station, Bishop's Cleeve C

Commitment Jesson Road, Bishops Cleeve C
Commitment Invista, Brockworth C
Commitment Land at St George’s Church Centre, Brockworth C
Commitment Land to the rear of 2-12 Westfield Road, Brockworth C
Commitment Mottershead Drive, Innsworth C

Commitment 105/105a Tewkesbury Road, Longford C
Commitment Land at Longford C
Commitment CRE Site, Stoke Orchard C
Commitment Towncrest, 27-28 East Street, Tewkesbury C
Commitment Halifax Works, Tewkesbury C

Commitment Land to the north of Bredon Road (Area 1), Tewkesbury C
Commitment Magistrates Court, Tewkesbury C
Commitment Land at Greet Road, Winchcombe C
Commitment Abbey House And Parish Hall, Winchcombe C
Commitment Land between Greet Road and Gretton Road, Winchcombe C

Commitment Other dwellings under construction D
Commitment Small sites with PP (83 units with a 90% implementation rate) D

Total Projected Completions

Total Net Completions

verability Net Site Capacity 2012-13 2013- First Five Year Period 2017-
egory Remaining Completions 14 18
2014- 2015- 2016-
0 14 15 16 17
14 0
951 131 14
27 0 150 160 160 160 160
115 0 27
45 27
353 0 25 50 40
22 0 25 20
0
38 11 25 50 50 50
0
0 15 23
1,543 0
7 50 100
0 7
8 123
80 100 8
0 80
266 0 100 100 66
450 5
550 0 50 100 100 100
0 0 50 100 100 100
8 0
0 8
14 0 14
220 0 25 50 50 50
5 0
5 0 5
6 2 5
0 6
2 0 2
570 0
122 0 75 75 75 100
8 0 50 50 22
8 1
0 8
23 8
13 48
92 18 5
7 13
120
25 50 17
25 7
75
25 50 45

25
15 15 15 15 15
540 692 808 725 683

462