Local Plan - Bolton

MATTER 3
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Local Plan

Bolton’s Allocations Plan Examination
Matters and Issues
Matter 3: The Supply & Delivery of
Housing Land
Shaping the future of Bolton

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MATTER 3
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Matter 3: The Supply & Delivery of Housing Land

Issue

Whether the approach towards the supply and delivery of
housing land is justified, effective and consistent with national
policy.

Questions

1. What are the potential sources of supply for new housing? What are
the assumptions about the scale and timing of supply and rates of
delivery from these sources? Are these realistic and supported by
evidence? Should the housing trajectory be included in the Plan itself?

1.1.1 Bolton’s Explanatory Statement paragraphs 7.209-7.211 sets out the sources of
supply for new housing. These include specific allocations, sites within Bolton town
centre, small sites and Horwich Loco Works.

1.1.2 Information on specific site allocations is provided in the housing site information
booklets APBD07 and APBD08. The updated status of each site and current
capacity where development has commenced at April 2013 is set out in Appendix 1
to this statement. This indicates that allocated sites in the plan have potential to
deliver 5691 units. The following table sets out a broad summary of the status of
these sites.

Status No of Capacity % of sites % of supply
sites 21%
Under 17 1179 15%
construction
in full or part 19 665 17% 12%
Planning
approval in 77 3847 68% 68%
full or part
Allocation
only

1.1.3 Appendix 1 also sets out whether the Council anticipates the allocations would be
available within years 1-5 or 6+. Sites included in the earlier period include those
under development, those with current planning permission or known developer
interest for example Roscoe’s Farm and Horwich College, sites in council
ownership and being progressed through the Public Sector Plc initiative and likely
candidates for inclusion within the HCA 2015-2018 Affordable Housing
Programmes funding round. Sites that could come forward in the longer term are
primarily industrial sites still in active use and also sites that may come forward as
Royal Bolton Hospital consolidates its facilities, potentially releasing land on its site
or housing.

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1.1.4 The Allocations Plan anticipates that around 1800 units will be forthcoming from
within Bolton Town Centre over the life of the plan including the allocated
Westbrook former college site (1SC) which has recently been granted planning
permission for 100 dwellings. The Core Strategy identifies residential development
in a number of town centre locations including under policies TC2 (St Helena), TC3
(St Peter’s), TC4 (Trinity Gateway), TC5 (Cultural Quarter), TC8 (Church Wharf),
TC9 (Little Bolton) and TC10 (Urban Village). Planning consents already exist for
developments within a number of these areas, mostly notably at Church Wharf with
permission for up to 720 units, at Spa Road/Westpoint for 289 units and King Street
for 132.

1.1.5 It is encouraging to note that progress is now being made on the conversion of
Trinity Church together with a new build extension to provide 82 studio units for
private rent. This adjoins the town centre boundary and it is anticipated that when
the overall economic situation improves development will further increase within
Bolton town centre.

1.1.6 However currently there is market demand for student accommodation with the
recent conversion of the Pack Horse Hotel and also the former Lloyd Bank into
student accommodation. Together these provide for 155 student units, 120 being
self-contained flats. Planning permission has also been granted to convert a former
leisure club on Mawdsley Street to accommodate 40 students. Development has
now commenced on the conversion of former Metrolands House on Bradshawgate
into student accommodation. This contains 216 student accommodation rooms
formed from 72 self-contained studio rooms and 144 cluster flat rooms. Bolton
University also has significant aspirations to form a student village within Bolton
town centre and is working with the Council to consider options and sites. Clearly
this demonstrates that Bolton town centre is likely to see a significant increase in
housing delivery.

1.1.7 Horwich Loco Works is allocated as a strategic mixed use allocation in the adopted
Core Strategy (2011). Subsequently the Council has worked with Horwich Vision to
ensure the scheme is brought forward. A planning application has now been
submitted to include up to 1700 dwellings (reference 91352/14). A supporting
Design and Access Statement states that the Rivington Chase development will be
delivered in three phases over a period of 10-15 years. It also includes two
possible options to development of the site approaches to phasing. The
submission of this planning application strengthens the case for delivery over the
plan period.

1.1.8 A small sites allowance has been included at 90 dwellings per annum. This
originated as a conservative assumption from the 2007 SHLAA which considered
completions on sites of below 0.25 which totalled 179 over a 6 year period 2002 –
2007/8. The halving of that rate represented a cautious approach based on 2007
downturn in the housing market. Over the 5 years 2008/13 a further 494 dwellings
have been completed on small sites, ranging from 148 in 2008/9 to 71 in 2012/13.
The overall average under very poor economic conditions is just under 100 per
annum. Coupled with supply of 949 dwellings remaining on small sites with
permission at April 2013, this would suggest inclusion of the small site allowance
remains appropriate. Development rates on small sites will continue to be

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monitored to see whether the council has been unduly conservative in setting the
allowance at that level.

1.1.9 A trajectory was included in the Core Strategy which sets out how plan
requirements are anticipated to be met over the life of the plan. It was derived
using general assumptions about likely rates of delivery and timescales from key
sources of supply. This trajectory is updated annually as part of the Authority
Monitoring Report. The most recent is within the 2013 AMR (1.006a). In summary
completions are anticipated to rise in later years as town centre development
becomes more viable with economic recovery and Horwich Loco Works starts to
contribute and provide a stable element of supply over a significant time period.
The Local Plan already includes a base trajectory which is adjusted and monitored
through the AMR. To include another could result in potential confusion.

2. How has flexibility been provided in terms of the potential supply of
housing land? Is this sufficient?

2.1.1 National policy requires the plan to identify specific deliverable sites to provide five
years’ worth of housing against their housing requirements with an additional buffer
of 5%. Beyond the five years it needs to identify a supply of specific, developable
sites or broad locations for years 6-10 and, where possible, for years 11-15.

2.1.2 The plan identifies more sites than is required to meet requirements within the first
years. This provides more certainty than relying solely on broad locations for years
6 and onwards. Also the considerable contribution to supply from the already
allocated Horwich Loco Works site has to be noted.

2.1.3 In addition the Council has included no specific windfall allowance in the plan.
Historically windfalls have played a significant role in providing land for new housing
and are likely to do so. Indeed all new sites since adoption of the 2005 UDP have
effectively been windfalls. In a predominantly urban area like Bolton there are
considerable opportunities where positive benefits would arise from re-development
for housing as is evidenced by the SHLAA. The trajectory set out in Annex 3:
Housing Land Requirements and Supply Briefing Note 2012/2013 of the 2013 AMR
displays a column of past permissions. This demonstrates new sites gaining
permission and entering the land supply. In the years 2008 to 2013 this has ranged
from 332 to 584 per annum. While a limited number of these may be gardens and
should be excluded, the figures demonstrate that new permissions can be expected
to continue to come forward.

2.1.4 Planning applications for significant windfall opportunities are currently being
considered by the Council. A planning application (91081/13) has been submitted
by Bellway Homes Ltd, Taylor Wimpey Manchester and B&E Boys Ltd for Bolton
Point, on protected employment land off Crompton Way. This is also subject of a
representation to the Allocations Plan Examination seeking a mixed use allocation.
In determining the application it will be assessed against Core Strategy policy P1
regarding safeguarding of existing employment land or the appropriateness of
mixed uses. If approved this would provide 308 dwellings making a significant
contribution to overall supply and the 5 year supply. Another substantial application
has been submitted at Reebok Stadium and Bolton Arena, Burnden Way, Horwich

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for mixed uses (89159/12). This scheme includes up to 200 apartments. These
two schemes alone could add over 500 units to plan supply and reflect the
unanticipated opportunities that have historically occurred in the Borough.

2.1.5 No specific contribution has been included from potential housing development
arising from the five allocated mixed use areas, under Policy P6AP. The Council is
supportive of housing opportunities in these areas as a means of securing
regeneration. Enquires have been received about possibilities of alternative uses in
Halliwell Mills (2P6AP) and permission already exists at the Greenwood (5P6AP).
Given the size of these allocations development even on parts would add
significant housing potential.

3. Is there sufficient variety in terms of the location and type of site
allocated?

3.1.1 Distribution in general terms is addressed in the Explanatory Statement in
paragraph 7.211 and this is in accordance with the Core Strategy spatial approach.

3.1.2 Information on specific site allocations is provided in the housing site information
booklets APBD07 and APBD08. It is evident from this that different types of sites
are available. Sites range in size from 0.4 to 7.8 hectares. Some 53% of sites are
between 0.4 and 1 hectare, a further 30% between 1 and 2 hectares and 17% of
sites are 2 hectares or larger. This range will provide choice for both local and
regional/national housebuilders.

3.1.3 In terms of sites characteristics 75 of the sites are previously developed while the
remaining 38 are greenfield. However there is diversity in both these types.
Previously developed sites include former college sites and employment land, listed
mills, former school and institutional sites, former housing clearance sites and
housing infill or re-development sites within lower density areas. Greenfield sites
also cover a range including informal open space, unused urban land, former
playing fields and agricultural land.

3.1.4 There is therefore variety in both location including town centre, inner area and
more suburban areas and in type of sites. This suggests the needs of families,
older people and potentially opportunities for self-build could be accommodated.

4. Has there been persistent under delivery of housing? In terms of a
buffer for a five year supply of housing sites, should this be 5% or 20%
in relation to para 47 of the NPPF? What would the requirement be for a
five year supply including a buffer?

4.1.1 The Council does not consider there has been persistent under delivery of housing.
While development rates since adoption of the Core Strategy have been low this
decline clearly mirrors national economic recession. Taking on board National
Planning Practice Guidance issued in March 2014 a longer term view taking on
board the peaks and troughs of the housing market cycle needs to be considered to
reach more robust conclusions. The following table sets out net completions
compared to the previous UDP and then the Core Strategy targets. It is clear over
the last 10 years there has been either marginal or more substantial oversupply. In

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these circumstances there has not been persistent under-delivery and a buffer of
5% is required.

Plan Surplus Requirement Surplus (+) / Shortfall
Requirement (+) /
Year Completions shortfall at time (-)
(-)

2003/4 388 470 -82 470 -82
2004/5 426 470 -44 470 -44
2005/6 761 470 291 470 291
2006/7 927 470 457 470 457
2007/8 1174 470 704 470 704
2008/9 530 694 -164 470 60
2009/10 372 694 -322 470 -98
2010/11 326 694 -368 470 -144
2011/12 526 694 -168 694 -168
2012/13 401 694 -293 694 -293

Overall 5831 5820 11 5148 683

4.1.2 The Council’s additional explanatory statement SD05 contains the April 2013
housing land availability update. Section 2 of that report deals with the 5 year

requirement 2013-18. There is no common agreement on methodology for

calculating the 5 year requirement particularly how to address under supply. The
following sets out the range of figures using both the “Sedgefield” and “Liverpool”
methods and at 5 and 20% buffers.

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Five Year Supply Meeting shortfall over 5
Calculation years
Managing shortfall "Sedgefield"
over plan period
"Liverpool"

Core Strategy Annual 694 Core Strategy Annual 694
requirement requirement
Plan requirement 2008- 12492 Plan requirement 2008-12/13 3470
25/26
Completions 2008- 2155 Completions 2008-12/13 2155
12/13
Requirement 13/14- 10337 Shortfall 2008-12/13 1315
25/26
Annualised requirement 795 5 year requirement 13-18 4785
over plan period plus shortfall
5 year net requirement 3975 Total net requirement 13-18 4785
100 Clearance 100
Clearance Gross 5 year requirement
4075 4885
Gross 5 year
requirement

Annualised requirement 815 Annualised Requirement 977
2013-2018 2013-2018

5 year requirement 4279 856 pa 5 year requirement plus 5% 5129 1026 pa
plus 5% buffer buffer 5862 1172 pa
5 year requirement
plus 20% buffer 4890 978 pa 5 year requirement plus
20% buffer

4.1.3 The Core Strategy sets a net annual dwelling requirement of 694 dwellings
between 2008 and 2026. The Council’s approach translates this into a 5 year rolling
residual dwelling requirement for 2013-2017/18 of 4075 dwellings taking account of
2008-2012/13 net completions and a clearance allowance of 20 dwellings per
annum. With a 5 year buffer this amounts to a 5 year requirement of 4279
dwellings. This assumes that past under supply is addressed over the life of the
plan.

4.1.4 While national guidance suggests that local planning authorities should aim to deal
with any undersupply within the first 5 years of the plan period where possible this
is not a requirement. The Council’s view is that under provision is primarily a result
of the economic situation damping down demand. In addition the Core Strategy
approach to housing anticipates that Horwich Loco Works will deliver a substantial
element of the housing required but not immediately on adoption of the Core
Strategy in 2011. At that time it set the target of 100 dwellings per annum from
2013. Approval of the current application for housing would add to the 5 year
supply for a sustained period of 10 to 15 years.

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5. Would the Allocations Plan realistically provide for a five year supply
on adoption? Will a five year supply be maintained?

5.1.1 National policy is that deliverable sites include those that are allocated and with
planning permission unless there is clear evidence that schemes will not be
implemented. On adoption of the plan the allocated housing sites, including the
additional proposed site at Smithills Coaching House, provide capacity for 5691
dwellings. Of these 4079 are considered likely to be deliverable within 5 years,
making allowance for 30 dwellings per annum or 150 in years 1-5 unless other
considerations apply. Sites of 0.25 and above in the 5 year supply at April 2013
that have not been included in the Allocations Plan have capacity for a further 867
units. These sites are listed in the council’s Housing Land Information Sources
Note 3 March 2014.

5.1.2 In total when a contribution from small sites is assumed at 90 units per annum
(450) drawn from capacity on small sites for 949 dwellings on sites with planning
permission at April 2013 there is an identified five year supply of 5396 dwellings.
This exceeds all but the highest requirement in response to question 4.

5.1.3 The submission of the Horwich Loco Works planning application for 1700 increases
the certainty that this will deliver over the life of the plan and add considerably to
the 5 year supply in due course. In addition new windfall sites will continue to come
forward as addressed in the response under question 2. Increased interest and
progress particularly in the provision of student housing within Bolton town centre
will also add to housing provision in the short term.

5.1.4 The Council works in a variety of ways to ensure delivery of new housing. One way
is through its partnership with Public Sector PLC. The partnership in Bolton is
tasked with bringing forward a wide range of projects including development of
surplus assets, town centre regeneration and support to the Council’s wider
property occupation strategy. It uses private sector finance to fund upfront costs of
the work necessary to take specific council sites through planning and marketing
processes for private housing development. It is effectively a mechanism to enable
council land to be brought to the market for private sector development.

5.1.5 It also works with its RSL partners including Bolton at Home which manages its
former council housing stock to maximise opportunities for new social housing. The
partnership with PSP and bids due to be submitted soon for the HCA 2015-2018
Affordable Housing Programmes funding round include development of sites
identified in the plan and will make delivery more certain. Further details of specific
sites are included under Matter 4. It is worth noting that while a general working
assumption is that schemes will deliver 30 units per annum, RSL developments
proceed much more rapidly to completion. Sizeable schemes at 61SC Milnthorpe
Road, Waggon Road (66SC) and Greenroyd Avenue (142SC) will be delivered at
rates well above this.

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6. In overall terms would the Allocations Plan realistically deliver the
number of dwellings required over the plan period?

6.1.1 There is total capacity of 5591 on Allocated sites outside Bolton Town Centre.
Within Bolton Centre there is scope for 1831 dwellings including 1SC Westbrook
which is allocated. The Horwich Loco Works scheme has potential to deliver 1700
units. Adding in an allowance for small sites at 90 per annum for the remaining 13
years of the plan in line with past trends would result in an additional further 1170
dwellings. This would result in a plan supply of 10292, excluding any contribution
from large site windfalls or for example from mixed use areas.

6.1.2 There were 401 net additional dwelling completions in 2012-13, leaving an overall
requirement of 10,337 dwellings from 2013 to 2026. There is therefore an
insignificant shortfall of 45. In any event the plan identified more specific sites than
would be required under national guidance.

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