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Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlooks (No. 28) (24 June 2016) Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 1

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Published by , 2016-12-17 23:56:03

Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlooks (No. 28)

Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlooks (No. 28) (24 June 2016) Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 1

Monthly Dis
Seasonal Climate O

(24 June

Tokyo Climate
Japan Meteorolog

scussion on
Outlooks (No. 28)

e 2016)

e Center (TCC)
gical Agency (JMA)

1

Out

1. Summary and Discussion

2. Latest State of the Climate Syste

3. Three-month Predictions (Jul. 2

4. Explanatory Notes

Notes:

• The present monthly discussion is intended t
Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in WMO R
seasonal prediction products. It does not con
Seasonal outlooks for individual countries sh

• Seasonal predictions are based on a JMA’s S
which is based on the coupled atmosphere-oc

• JMA provides three-month prediction produc
warm-season (Jun. – Aug.) prediction produc
cold-season (Dec. – Feb.) prediction product

tline

<Slides 3>
em (May 2016) <Slides 4 – 13>
2016 – Sep. 2016) <Slides 14 – 20>

<Slides 21 – 25>

to assist National Meteorological and
RA II (Asia) in interpreting GPC Tokyo’s
nstitute an official forecast for any nation.
hould be obtained from the relevant NMHS.

Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS),
cean general circulation model (CGCM).

cts around the 20th of every month with
cts in February, March and April, and with
ts in September and October.

2

1. Summary a

ENSO

• The El Nino event, which had persisted since
in spring 2016.

• It is likely that La Nina conditions will develo
through to the autumn.

Prediction for July-August-September 2016 (JA
• In the upper troposphere, large-scale divergen

Ocean, and large-scale convergence anomalie
response to the active convection over the Ind
stronger than normal in the western part of its
• In the lower troposphere, a quadrupole pattern
equatorial symmetric cyclonic and anticyclon
western Pacific, respectively.
• A high probability of below-normal precipitat
the seas east of the Philippines. A slightly hig
predicted for South Asia and parts of East Asi
• A high probability of above-normal temperatu

and Discussion

e boreal summer 2014, is likely to have ended

op in boreal summer 2016 and continue

AS 2016)
nce anomalies are predicted over the Indian
es are predicted over the western Pacific. In
dian Ocean, the Tibetan High is predicted to be
s climatological extent.
n of circulation anomalies is predicted with
nic anomalies over the Indian Ocean and the

tion is predicted from the South China Sea to
gh probability of above-normal precipitation is
ia.
ures is predicted for most of Southeast Asia.

3

2. Latest State of the C
May 2016

Climate System

4

<May 2016> Extrem

1.Warm: Japan to southeastern China
2.Heavy Rain: southeastern to southern China
3.Warm: Southeast Asia
4.Tropical Storm: Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh
5.Heavy Rain: western Nepal, northern India
6.Wet: the southern part of Central Asia
7.Warm: northwestern Russia to northeastern Europe
8.Wet: southeastern Europe to central Turkey
9.Wet: northern France to Italy
10.Wet: western Spain

<Monthly Climate in the World> http://ds.data.jma

me Climate Events

11.Warm: around the Red Sea 5
12.Warm: the southwestern part of Western Africa
13.Heavy Rain: Rwanda
14.Warm: Alaska
15.Warm: southern Mexico
16.Warm: northern to eastern Brazil
17.Dry: eastern Brazil
18.Wet: in and around central Argentina
19.Warm: New Zealand to eastern Australia

a.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/monthly.html

<May 2016> T

• Temperatures were well above normal in northern
eastern Australia and the global tropics.

• Temperatures were well below normal in parts of

Normalized anomaly of monthly mean temper

<Monthly Climate in the World> http://ds.data.jma.

Temperature

n Europe to Western Russia, over and around Japan,

Mongolia.

rature

.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/monthly.html 6

<May 2016> P

• Precipitation amounts were above normal in s
• Precipitation amounts were below normal in n

eastern Brazil.
Monthly precipitation ratio

<Monthly Climate in the World> http://ds.data.jma.

Precipitation

southern Europe to Turkey and Central Asia.
northern Europe, northwestern India and

.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/climate/monthly.html 7

<May 2016> Sea Surfa

• SSTs were above normal in the equatorial cen
below normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific
Monthly mean SST anomaly (˚C)

<Monthly mean SST anomalies (Global)> http://ds.data.jma.g

ace Temperature (SST)

ntral Pacific and the Indian Ocean basin, while
c.

go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/ocean/sst-ano-global_tcc.html 8

ENSO Monito

• The El Nino event, which had NINO.3
persisted since boreal summer 2014, SOI
is likely to have ended in spring NINO.W
2016.

• In May 2016, the index for NINO.3
dropped and became close to
normal at +0.1oC. The indices for
NINO.WEST and the Indian Ocean
Basin Wide (IOBW) were near and
above normal, respectively.

• The Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI) turned positive at +0.5.

IOBW

Monthly values (thin lines) and five-month running means (thick line
< El Niño Monitoring and Outlook> http://ds.data.j

oring Indices

3
WEST

es). The shading indicates El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue) events. 9
jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/elnino/elmonout.html

<May 2016> Uppe

• Convective activity (inferred from OLR) was enhan
the western Pacific.

• In the 200-hPa stream function field, anticyclonic an
equator were seen over the western Indian Ocean an

Monthly average 200 hPa velocity potential,
divergent wind vector, and outgoing
longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies

Vector: divergent wind vector anomalies (m/s)
Shading: OLR anomalies (W/m2)
D and C indicate the centers of large-scale divergence and
convergence anomalies, respectively.

<Animation Maps (Global Area)> http://ds.data.jma

er-level Circulation

nced over the Indian Ocean, and was suppressed over

nd cyclonic circulation anomalies straddling the
nd the western Pacific, respectively.

Monthly average 200 hPa stream
function & OLR anomalies

Contour: stream function anomalies (106 m2/s)
Vector: wave activity flux (m2/s2)
Shading: OLR anomalies (W/m2)
A and C indicate the centers of anti-cyclonic and cyclonic
circulation anomalies, respectively.

a.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/anim/anim_tp.html 10

<May 2016> Lowe

• In the 850-hPa stream function field, cyclonic
straddling the equator were seen in the Indian

• In the surface wind field, westerly and easterly
Indian Ocean and the equatorial western Pacif

850 hPa stream function and OLR anomalies

Contour: stream function anomalies (106 m2/s)
Vector: wave activity flux (m2/s2)
Shading: OLR anomalies (W/m2)
A and C indicate the centers of anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulation
anomalies, respectively.

<Animation Maps (Global Area)> http://ds.data.jma

er-level Circulation

c and anticyclonic circulation anomalies
Ocean and the western Pacific, respectively.
y wind anomalies prevailed in the equatorial
fic, respectively.

Sea level pressure (contours; hPa),
surface temperature (shading; ˚C), and
surface wind vector (m/s) anomalies

11

a.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/anim/anim_tp.html

Equatorial Intrase

• During early to mid- May 2016, the active ph
propagated eastward from the Atlantic to the
propagation became unclear.

Time-longitude cross section of seven-day running
mean 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies (5˚S – 5˚N

<MJO> http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisy

easonal Oscillation

hase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Indian Ocean. In late May the eastward

N) MJO diagram

ys/mjo/moni_mjo.html 12

<May 2016> Northern H

• In the 500-hPa height field, a wave train pattern was notice
northern Europe and Japan and negative anomalies over Ce

• In the sea level pressure field, negative anomalies prevailed
High was enhanced in the northern part of its climatologica

Monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height

Contour: geopotential height
Shading: geopotential height anomalies

<Monthly mean Maps (N.H.)> http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc

Hemisphere Circulation

eable over northern Eurasia, with positive anomalies over
entral Siberia.

d Central Asia and Central to Eastern Siberia. The Pacific
al extent.

Monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) 13

Contour: SLP
Shading: SLP anomalies

c/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_mon_tcc.html

3. Three-month Predict

July - August - Septem
(JAS 2016)

(Initial date for EPS: 10 Jun

tions
mber 2016

ne 2016)

14

<JAS 2016> Sea Surfac

• It is likely that La Nina conditions will develo
through to the autumn.

• It is likely that the NINO.WEST SST will stay
• It is likely that the IOBW SST will become gr

autumn.

Sea surface temperature (SST)

Contour: three-month average (˚C); Shading: anomalies.

Verification based on hindcast
(Left panel) http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/hin
(Right panel) http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/h

ce Temperature (SST)

op in boreal summer 2016 and continue

y above normal in summer and autumn.
radually closer to normal in summer and

Outlook of the SST deviation for NINO.3

ndcast/CPS2/index.html 15
hindcast/CPS2/shisu/shisu.html

<JAS 2016> Glo

• In the 200-hPa velocity potential field, negative (lar
the Indian Ocean, and positive (large-scale converge
Pacific.

• In response to the active convection over the Indian
stream function field is predicted to be stronger than
extent, while anticyclonic anomalies are less pronou

200 hPa velocity potential (106 m2/s)

Contour: three-month average
Shading: anomalies

200 hPa stream function (106 m2/s)

Contour: three-month average
Shading: anomalies

Verification based on hindcast
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/hindcast/CPS2/index

obal Circulation

rge-scale divergence) anomalies are predicted over
ence) anomalies are predicted over the western

n Ocean, the Tibetan High as seen in the 200-hPa
n normal in the western part of its climatological
unced in the eastern part.

x.html 16

<JAS 2016> Asi

• In the sea level pressure field, positive anomalies are predict
negative anomalies over the Indian Ocean basin.

• In the 850-hPa stream function field, a quadrupole pattern of
cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies over the Indian Ocean a

• Below-normal precipitation is predicted for the area from the
precipitation for South Asia.

PSI850
& wind

m/s

SLP

Top-left: 850 hPa stream function (106 m2/s) and wind vector a
Bottom-left: sea level pressure (hPa); Bottom-right: surface air

Contour: three-month average; Shading: anomalies. A and C indicate the
Verification based on hindcast http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/t

ian Circulation

ted over the South China Sea to the western Pacific, and
f circulation anomalies is predicted with equatorial symmetric
and the western Pacific, respectively.
e South China Sea to the western Pacific and above-normal

Rainfall

Tsurf

anomalies (m/s); Top-right: rainfall amounts (mm/day),

r temperature (˚C)

centers of anti-cyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies, respectively.

tcc/products/model/hindcast/CPS2/index.html 17

<JAS 2016> Northern H

• In the 500-hPa height field, positive anomalie
hemisphere, reflecting global tropospheric wa

• In the 850-hPa temperature field, positive ano
mid- to high latitudes.

• In the sea level pressure field, the North Pacif
than normal in the western Pacific, and displa
eastern Pacific.

500-hPa geopotential height 850-hPa t

Left: 500 hPa geopotential height (m); Center:

Contour: three-month average; Shading: anomalies

Verification based on hindcast http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc

Hemisphere circulation

es are predicted to be dominant over most of the
arming in the aftermath of the El Nino event.
omalies are predicted for most of the global

fic Subtropical High is predicted to be stronger
aced northward of its normal extent in the

temperature Sea level pressure

: 850 hPa temperature (˚C); Right: SLP (hPa)

c/products/model/hindcast/CPS2/index.html 18

<JAS 2016> Probability F

• A high probability of below-
normal precipitation is
predicted from the South China
Sea to the seas east of the
Philippines.

• A slightly high probability of
above-normal precipitation is
predicted for South Asia and
parts of East Asia.

Verification based on hindcast
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/hin
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/hin

Forecasts (precipitation)

nd/html/skill_reg_3-mon.html 19
nd/html/skill_2d_3-mon.html

<JAS 2016> Probability F

• A high probability of above-
normal temperatures is
predicted for most of Southeast
Asia.

• A slightly high probability of
above-normal temperatures is
predicted for East Asia.

Verification based on hindcast
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/hin
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/hin

Forecasts (temperature)

nd/html/skill_reg_3-mon.html 20
nd/html/skill_2d_3-mon.html

5. Explanato

Latest state of the climate system

• Extreme climate events and surface climate c
For details, see http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc
• SST products are based on COBE-SST data.
For details, see http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc
• Atmospheric circulation products are based o
http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html
For details, see http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc
• The base period for the normal is 1981 – 201

Three-month predictions and warm/col

• Products are generated using JMA’s seasonal
For details, see http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc
• Unless otherwise noted, atmospheric circulat
ensemble mean, and anomalies are deviations

Conta

ory Notes (1)

conditions are based on CLIMAT messages.
c/products/climate/index.html

c/products/elnino/index.html
on JRA-55 data:
l
c/products/clisys/index.html
10.

ld season predictions

l EPS which is based on the CGCM.
c/products/model/index.html
tion prediction products are based on the
from the 1981 – 2010 average for hindcasts.

act: [email protected] 21

5. Explanato

SST monitoring indices (NINO.3, NINO

• The SST baseline for NINO.3 region (5˚S – 5
average over a sliding 30-year period (e.g., 19
above the baseline, near the baseline, and belo
• The SST baselines for the NINO.WEST regio
IOBW region (20˚S – 20˚N, 40˚E – 100˚E) ar
to a sliding 30-year period in order to remove
trends observed in these regions. The thresho
and below the baseline categories are +0.15 a

Con

ory Notes (2)

O.WEST and IOBW)

5˚N, 150˚W – 90˚W) is defined as a monthly
984 – 2013 for 2014). The thresholds of
ow the baseline categories are +0.5 and -0.5.
on (Eq. – 15˚N, 130˚E – 150˚E) and the
re defined as linear extrapolations with respect
e the effects of significant long-term warming
olds of above the baseline, near the baseline,
and -0.15.

ntact: [email protected]

22

Names of wo

orld regions

23

WMO Regional As

GENERAL REGULATIONS

ssociation regions

OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
24

TCC we

http://ds.data.jma.g

ebsite

go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html 25


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